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SF 49ers +4.5> **double play** line has dropped from +6 Detroit is on a short week coming off MNF beating Chicago IMO this line will drop to -3 / -3.5 get this above 4 as I see a 24-20 type game. SF is on a roll going into their bye week and its always a good bet to play the streak (and conversely FADE the streaks on the week after the BYE IE. Fade SF 10.30 vs Cleveland)
Cleveland +7 **double play** We played Oakland last week and that play was entirely based on the Death of Al Davis this weeks play is LET DOWN week fade Oakland a -7 point favorite? I don't see it especially in this spot. Cleveland is coming off their bye I have a decent trend that plays into our play Cleveland is 23-6 ATS on the road with O/U 40 or more (44.5)
GamingToday’s Consensus Picks October 16, 2011 6:48 AM by GT Staff
NFL Football
Cleveland Browns +7 at Oakland Raiders at 1:05 p.m. PT
Suddenly the public is firmly backing Raider Nation. I think the emotional win at Houston days after the passing of Al Davis, could work against Oakland here. The Browns are coming off a bye and Colt McCoy has done fine at QB. I would take the Raiders even, but not giving a TD. We’ll let Janikowski decide it.
“1 UNIT” NFL SYSTEM (Rams +14 at Packers in a 1:00 eastern kickoff): It is easy to see why Green Bay has been asked to lay this many points since the defending Super Bowl champions are undefeated and have successfully covered the spread consecutive weeks in National-TV affair with most of the nation watching. But it has been nearly FIFTY YEARS since the last time this proud Green Bay franchise has gotten off to such a great start which means they are starting to climb into what I will call rarified air where the “law of averages” are about to stack up. Possibly no team in the league needed a bye-week more than disappointing St. Louis who in 2010 was one victory shy of qualifying for the playoffs with the help of #1 draft pick Sam Bradford. The big news for the Rams is that star running back Steven Jackson has pronounced himself 100-PERCENT after suffering a strained quad muscle on his first carry of the regular season. Since the Rams were off last week they had extra time to further treat Jackson who has rushed for only 124 yards so far in 2011 with 47 of them coming on that first carry of the campaign. The injury bug has also nailed St. Louis on defense as they have already lost a pair of starting cornerbacks for the entire season. In an interesting twist getting the start for St. Louis today at one of the corner positions is newly signed veteran Al Harris (36 years old) who used to be employed by today’s opponent. The last time Harris started a game was a full two years ago while with Green Bay so one can assume he will have plenty of motivation. Turning to the database here is a 64-PERCENT SYSTEM (104-59 since 1983) that plays ON pathetic road underdogs like St. Louis who have been outscored on average by double-digits per contest, after scoring 7-or-less “first half” points in consecutive games. That system favors the “rested” Rams who finally have their single most important player (Steven Jackson) healthy
The Giants are in an ideal spot today coming off an embarrassing home loss to Seattle while Buffalo survived Philadelphia despite allowing 489 yards of Eagle offense. Imagine how many yards and points the Birds would have posted if you remove the five turnovers. This game is all about time in the pocket. The Bills are #32 and DEAD LAST in sacks with four on the season. This means Eli Manning will have time to throw. The same cannot be said for Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Giants lead the league in sacks with 18. I suspect turnovers will play a heavy impact on the outcome in this game. The Giants have forced six fumbles and five interceptions in addition to those 18 sacks. Buffalo is 0-8 ATS on the road in October when facing an opponent off a double-digit defeat. I don't mind Ahmad Bradshaw getting more carries for the injured Brandon Jacobs. Buffalo is #28 versus the run and #26 versus the pass. You rarely see defensive rankings like that with teams that consistently win and especially on the road. The Giants are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings in this series. Go figure it. The Giants are laying the same number at home to the Bills that the Eagles were favored at in Buffalo last Sunday. Buffalo 3-9 SU the last dozen on the road. In their last three games the Bills have lost the stats in each. In their last road game Buffalo had 273 total yards at Cincinnati. Meanwhile Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati passing attack had 287 passing yards alone (458 total). Put me down on "Big Blue" at this price off a home loss at a discounted price today.
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS -12.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, 10 dimes
At first glance, I thought that this was a game to avoid. We've all experienced how inconsistent the Steelers can be against the number and SU this season. They've at times looked like the defending AFC champions, and at times looked like a Pop Warner team running around with no real purpose. I started to consider the Jacksonville offense in this situation however, and realistically I don't believe there's any real way Blaine Gabbert can put up points. He's ranked close to dead last in the league with his 49 percent completion percentage and pathetic passer rating of 71.2. He's young, inexperienced, and traveling into a very hostile Pittsburgh environment against an intimidating defense. MJD should expect to get his touches, but if the Steelers contain him the way they limited Chris Johnson last week, the Jags could be in for a very long day. Take the home chalk.
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NEW YORK GIANTS/Buffalo Bills over 50, 10 dimes
The Bills rushing attack has been the key to their high scoring formula. They're averaging a buck 37 on the ground every game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to impress when he has to. The Giants have soared over the total in four out of five games this season.
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GREEN BAY PACKERS -14 over St. Louis Rams, 10 dimes
This game doesn't need too much explaining, as the Rams are officially the league's weakest offense. They barely average two scores a game, and now they face a seriously talented defense on the road. Add to this the fact that Aaron Rodgers and Co. have looked upstoppable, and that the Rams are without their two starting corners, and you might realize how things could get ugly. Take the chalk.
---Start Time 1:00 PM EST---
WASHINGTON REDSKINS +3 over Philadelphia Eagles, 10 dimes
I love the home team getting points in this tough rivalry matchup. The Eagles are hungry for a win, but they've been that way since the 2nd week of the season, and they still have nothing to show for it. Now they have to travel to our nation's capital and square off against a well rested team coming off their bye week. Washington has covered in 3 out of 4 games this season, while Philly is 1-4 against the number.
---Start Time 4:15 PM EST---
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -7 over Dallas Cowboys, 10 dimes
This is another one of those easy selections. The Patriots' offense is looking just as prolific this season as Green Bay's, and they're scoring handfuls of points. They're 4-1 ATS and 2-0 against the number at home. All four of their victories have been by at least nine points. The Pats' defense is very suspect, but they should manage to give their offense enough cushion to cover by at least ten.
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