10-17-11

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Sports Handicapper King


NFL FOOTBALL
10* New York Jets -6.5


NHL comp Winnipeg

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SPORTS WAGERS

Miami +7 over N.Y. JETS

The Dolphins come off their bye with a new quarterback. Matt Moore lost the quarterback competition in the summer but is installed as the starter now. Moore played almost the entire Charger game and ended with only 167 yards and no scores with one interception. The Jets are on their own three-game losing streak and are not likely to show any mercy here. However, these two are bitter rivals and have a history of bizarre games. Last year, when the Jets were a whole lot better than they are this year, Miami came in here and won 10-6. After losing to the Pats last week, Rex Ryan said the Patriots are the better team right now. Right now? What are you going to do Rex, fly around earth like Superman and turn back time? Back to when you could run the ball and stop the run? And people hardly noticed how average Mark Sanchez was? The Jets have two wins. Their first win came in week 1 over the Boys in a game they had no business winning. Dallas dominated but in true Cowboy spirit, they found a way to lose. In week 2, the Jets beat the Jag-wires then proceeded to lose three straight to Oakland, Baltimore and New England and all three were pretty ugly. The Jets do a lot of smack-talking but they no longer have the personnel to back it up. Despite being 0-4, three of the Dolphins four losses came against New England, Houston (when they were healthy) and San Diego, three of the more prolific offenses in the game and the Fish were in all of them. They also lost to Cleveland but were the much better team. Miami is not as bad as people think and the Jets are the second most overhyped team in the NFL. Even with Matt Moore, the Dolphins can not only keep this one close, they can win outright. Play: Miami +7 +100 (Risking 2 units).


Colorado +125 over TORONTO

The Maple Leafs are 3-0 and that quick start has opened up an opportunity to take back some nice prices against them until they inevitably start losing. The Leafs three wins thus far have come against a flat Habs club on opening night, 2-0, a reeling Sens club, 6-5 and this past Saturday they beat Calgary 3-2. Those are three non-playoff teams and both Ottawa and Calgary might finish 1-2 in the least amount of points this NHL season. Contrary to what is being advertised, the Leafs are not much better than last season, if it all. They’re loaded with a few second line players and a lot of third line players, other team’s castoffs and a defense that outside of Luke Schenn is a mistake waiting to happen. After three wins in rather unimpressive fashion, the Leafs will now face a confident Av’s team that has won four in a row, all on the road. Colorado is creating a ton of scoring chances with three outstanding lines that should be able to wreak havoc on a Leafs team that has not experienced this type of attack yet. There is nothing but money to be made against the Leafs when they are favored, as there are going to be exposed for what they are very soon. The Av’s have played a lot of games recently and they’ll start ex-Leaf J.S. Giguere tonight but that’s not going to deter us from taking back a tag against these overvalued hosts. Play: Colorado +125 (Risking 2 units).


Florida +151 over TAMPA BAY

We pegged the Lightning as an overvalued club at the start of the year and sentiments have not changed one bit. These two played Saturday night in Florida and had it not been for the outstanding work by Mathieu Garon, the score would not have been close. Florida ended up winning in a shootout and there’s no reason they can’t win again. The Bolts have serious issues throughout their line-up. They’re “top heavy” with one great line and then there’s a dramatic decline. Defensively, they play about as well as Lindsay Lohan handles her money in Hollywood after a bender. The Panthers are gaining more confidence with every shift. This is a very decent team that the oddsmakers have not caught on about yet. They grind, they create, they’re sound defensively and they’re going to win its fair share of games. The Panthers won’t dazzle anyone but what they will do is go nose-to-nose with anyone, fight for every loose puck and methodically do all the little things right. With a take-back of 3-2, the Panthers are absolutely undervalued here in a game that is at worse a 50/50 proposition. If Dwayne Roloson is in net, that proposition increases in our favor. Play: Florida +151 (Risking 2 units).

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Sixth Sense


BEST BETS

YTD 22-14 +19.80%

3% MIAMI +7

NY JETS -7 Miami 42.5

Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 538-394-23. They also qualify in my turnover table situation, which is 429-279-18. Miami also qualifies in a general situation, which is 56-25-1. They also qualify in winless situations, which are 104-50-7 and 26-4-1. Miami also qualifies in a couple of road situations for poor teams, which are 126-56-5 and 149-81-4. Numbers favor the Jets by 7.5 points and predict about 41 points. The Jets have traditionally been bad home favorites and that has been true in this series as well. Miami has won the last three meetings here SU and four and five years ago they lost by just three points each year. Miami's defense has been not good, especially in the secondary, but they have enough play makers on offense, especially if they can get Daniel Thomas back at running back to cover the number against a Jets team who struggles on offense. NY JETS 21 MIAMI 20

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DCI INDEX

N.Y. JETS 28, Miami 13

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DUNKEL

Game 225-226: Miami at NY Jets (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.319; NY Jets 135.780
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 9 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-7); Over

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POINTWISE PHONES:

3* Miami

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DOC SPORTS

2 Unit Play. #126 Take New York Jets -7 over Miami Dolphins (Monday 8:45 p.m. ESPN)
Both teams come into this matchup on a down note, as the Jets have lost three straight games and the Dolphins have yet to win a game this season. As bad is the Jets are playing, they still have talent and that will be enough to win this game by double digits as they face a lame duck coach in Tony Sparano. What is worse is that the Dolphins will be without QB Chad Henne and now must turn to QB Matt Moore to salvage the season. Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC East teams. New York is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing records. The Jets are a frustrated group and they will take it out in a big way Monday Night against the Dolphins.
New York Nets 31, Miami Dolphins 13

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ROBERT FERRRINGO

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

5-Unit Play. Take #225 Miami (+7) over N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17)
I was going to make this a Game of the Year play but the number has just dropped too much.

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 43.0 Miami at N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17)

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RICK NEEDHAM

Dolphins at Jets (-7½) October 17, 2011 8:30, ESPN
Here's "The Scoop" Folks: The teetering New York Jets may just catch a break in week six NFL action when they host the winless Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium for an AFC East rival clash on MNF. The Jets have lost three straight games after opening the season with two wins, dropping last week’s contest against their other AFC East rival New England, 30-21. The Jets offense continues to struggle moving the ball and controlling the clock with the running game, and the defense couldn’t hold Tom Brady down for long in the loss to the Patriots. But help might be on the way in the form of the Dolphins, who have struggled to an 0-4 start and now face the rest of the season without starting quarterback Chad Henne. The Dolphins, who lost Henne to a season-ending shoulder injury in their, 26-16, loss in San Diego two weeks ago, held an open tryout for anyone who could throw a football last week during their bye. For the short-term the Dolphins will turn to backup Matt Moore at quarterback, but in the back of the mind of every Miami fan is the hope/fear that the Fins will play out the rest of the regular season in a contest with Indianapolis for the rights to draft Stanford’s Andrew Luck. The oddsmakers that set the football betting lines originally opened the Monday Night Football game between these two rivals with the Jets as large 9-point favorites at home. Surprisingly though, the number has actually dropped to minus -7.5-points after most of the early money has come in on the wounded Dolphins. There are still a few online sportsbooks listing the Jets at minus -9, or even minus -8, but the number has dropped to -7.5 at all of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and a majority of the reputable books on the Internet. The over/under total has also seen its share of line movement since the opening number was released, starting at 41 late on Sunday night and rising up to 42 or 42.5 after the first few hours of wagering at the window. The total going up is somewhat surprising as well, especially since on paper this game will feature two offenses that struggle to score points.
The Jets have gone to back-to-back AFC Championship games the past two season thanks in part to an offense that runs the football, controls the clock and keeps quarterback Mark Sanchez from having to win the game on his own, but that formula has disappeared in 2011. The Jets are only averaging 76.2 yards a game on the ground thus far, which ranks 31st in the 32-team NFL, and could be a big reason why the Jets have failed to put up wins in recent weeks. Part of the problem has been injuries along the offensive line, but there’s really no reason why the duo of Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson are only averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Without a strong running game Sanchez has shown his weakness at throwing the ball downfield (56.4 comp. %, 6.6 ypatt., 8 TD-5 INT) and the Jets offense as a whole has stubbed its toe with an average of just 297.4 yards a game (28th). The good news for Sanchez and the Jets is that the Miami defense is a shell of its former self, ranked 28th in overall yardage (414.5 ypg) and 25th in points allowed at 26 per game. Sanchez will also drool over the fact that the Dolphins pass defense has been cut apart by previous quarterbacks, to the tune of allowing 307 yards a game (31st).

When Miami has the ball they will likely try and run it to take some of the pressure off of Moore, something that they’ve had limited success doing thus far in 2011 (115.2 ypg rushing – 15th). The bigger question is who will run the ball, since offseason pickup Reggie Bush has been a flop and rookie Daniel Thomas has missed two of the Dolphins four games due to injury. Running the ball is the best option against the Jets defense too, since they are allowing 134.8 yards a game (26th) including 152 yards against the Patriots last week (4.3 ypc). Moore was 17-of-26 for 167 yards in relief of Henne against the Chargers, but he threw an interception and has had issues in protecting the football in his previous attempts as a starter in the NFL. The good news for Miami is that they seem to have the Jets number, especially on the road, as they have a three game winning streak over the Jets at the old Meadowlands and new MetLife Stadium. Last year they beat the Jets 10-6 in New York, the year before in 2009 they won both games against the Jets including a 30-25 decision on the road. All told there are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five head-to-head games with a perfect 3-0 for both on the road.

The underdog has also enjoyed a 5-0 ATS mark in those same five games. The problem for the Dolphins is that they are just 1-5 ATS against the AFC East in their last six tries. The Jets haven’t been good to bettors either, going 5-13 in October over the past few seasons and a terrible 1-4 ATS mark in their last five games on Monday Night. With all of those betting trend numbers scaring you off the side bet, the best wager for this game could be THE OVER. The over is 8-2 in Miami’s last 10 road games, 22-7 in the Jets last 29 games overall, and 4-1 for both teams in their last five games in primetime on Monday Night Football. BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: In a normal world I would never back the Jets as more than a touchdown favorite, but this is not a “normal” week between these AFC East rivals. The Jets desperately NEED this game, at home, to get back in the AFC playoff chase. I’m taking THE JETS minus the 7.5-points here, as well as THE OVER (42.0).

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Accuwager

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Prediction: New York Jets -7

The Miami Dolphins (0-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U) are in big trouble NFL gamblers so much trouble, that this pick is as easy as pie. Not only has Miami not won a single game this season, but they've looked increasingly inept in not reaching the 20-point plateau in each of their last three games. The winless Fins had a bye in week 5 following their uninspiring 26-16 Week 4 loss to San Diego as a 6.5-point road underdog in Week 4. Miami will face a New York Jets (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U) team that has lost two straight games and will be in all-out 'desperation mode' in this AFC East divisional showdown. The Jets fell to New England 30-12 as a 7.5-point road underdog in Week 5 and now they're going to take out all of their frustration on Miami's mostly clueless backup quarterback Matt Moore. New York is 9-3 ATS in its last dozen games against a team with a losing record while Miami has gone 0-6-1 ATS in its L/7 games overall. The Dolphins have won four of the last five games against the Jets, but there's no way it happening in this contest. Keep it simple and back the New York Jets to win and cash in!

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GOLDSHEET:

OVER in JETS GAME

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Vegas Vic/Philly Daily News

Jets

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Prediction Machine

Pauls picks NFL

Monday
NYJ-7 59.3%

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NORM HITZGES

SINGLE PLAY
Miami Dolphins