Tuesday 8/6/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#2 Susanoo	The price might get a touch better this time around after the dud at this level last time, but she's capable of something better and can probably bounce back with something competitive today.
#1 Regal Miss	She's quick enough to find a tactical spot near the front from the fence, but she has a habit of giving away a little ground in the stretch call, so she could be vulnerable again in the final yards. Dangerous either way.
#6 Versace Summer	Something like her two-back run might be good enough to keep her in the frame here, especially if a couple of the speedier players at least keep the tempo honest.
Race Summary	Susanoo didn't show much at a modest price last time out, but she's capable of better today with a decent race flow waiting for her. Guessing the price is a bit more appealing, too.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#5 Kotylos	No real issue going back to this guy for the third time in a row, as he turned in another decent effort last time out after the big upset in that early July run. Could see him getting another decent trip right near the front, and I'm hoping he'll get lost on the board again.
#2 Valentine Bug	Plenty of respect for his reliability and current form, but I'm a little worried about him having too much to do on the cutback after a long string of route races. Capable if the sharper trip wakes him up a bit.
#6 Shakin It Up Larry	He can bring something better today after the mild comeback run, and his speed makes him dangerous with a good draw to attack from the start. Capable, but maybe at an underlaid price?
Race Summary	Kotylos has been outrunning his odds so far this season, and I'm hoping he'll do it again today with another tactical trip waiting for him right behind a couple speedier types.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#5 Emerald Citadelle	It has been a long time since she won, and she's known for tiring late, but there isn't a ton of other serious pace lined up in here for her to deal with. Could see her hanging around at a number.
#8 So Moxie	Honest finisher is another riding a long winless streak, but she tends to show up with her baseline effort most days and fits as a win threat on that alone. Capable, but tough to trust.
#10 Cherokee Chatter	She should be in a good spot to prompt the top choice throughout and take command if that one starts to come back. The one to beat from close range.
Race Summary	Emerald Citadelle has been competitive with a few of these in the past, and I think she can control the tempo today with a chance to run them off their feet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Fort Erie - Race #1

#1 FRERET (12-1)	Likes Fort Erie lawn, should be tighter in second start off layoff, price attached.
#2 SILVER TUNES (7-2)	Dueled and just missed in return two back, falling to 1-for-30 on the turf.
#8 CRUMLIN BIRD (2-1)	Disappointed as odds-on favorite in latest but can’t be discounted.
Race Summary	FRERET, a lightly-raced 7-year-old, took money in her seasonal debut. She finished in the money in her previous seven grass tests, many ending in photo finishes. She could return a quick claim dividend at a tempting price. Bet to win and place.

Fort Erie - Race #4

#1 PARTY OF NO (8-1)	In range 4-wide while chasing the pace-setting fave on turn but flattened out.
#5 HEEZESPEEDY (2-1)	Zipped to easy win on sloppy track two back, gets in light-weighted.
#3 BOUND LUCKY (7-2)	Finished ahead of ‘Party’ and should get the jump again in bid for $100k Club.
Race Summary	PARTY OF NO, a five-time winner with a 32/5-4-7 record on dirt, meets all non-winner of 4 rivals. He switches pilots and draws the rail after racing 4- and 5-wide in his last two starts at 6F. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-5 exacta box.

Fort Erie - Race #5

#3 BIG TIME LOUIE (3-1)	Versatile, knows how to win, returns to long sprint with new rider.
#5 EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN (2-1)	Second in four straight, earned top speed fig in photo-finish setback.
#2 BEYOND MY DREAMS (5-1)	Ran 1-2-3 at this distance before latest try in fast heat.
Race Summary	BIG TIME LOUIE is 3-for-3 at 6-1/2F but hasn’t run the distance in two years. He has good tactical speed and should go well in his current form with eight wins at Fort Erie. Bet to win and place and play a 2-3-5 exacta box.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs

Assiniboia Downs - Race 1	ROLLING DOUBLE / .20 PICK 3 (Races 1-2-3) / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR EXACTOR
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $14,800 • Post: 7:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. BOSSY HOLIDAY is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOSSY HOLIDAY: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Jockey win percentage over the last 30 days is at least 18. WESTOVER: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RIDE EM: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" desig nation or an "L" designation.
5	BOSSY HOLIDAY	5/2	5/1
3	WESTOVER	3/1	5/1
4	RIDE EM	2/1	6/1
6	LUCKY LUKE	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	LUCKY LUKE	6	5/1	Front-runner	84	74	72.8	72.8	65.3
4	RIDE EM	4	2/1	Stalker	85	78	56.9	67.3	62.8
5	BOSSY HOLIDAY	5	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	96	83	73.0	73.0	67.0
3	WESTOVER	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	79	64.4	72.8	67.8
2	COURAGEOUS	2	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	56.3	66.8	56.8
1	CAPTIVE KITTEN	1	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	84	77	61.6	52.1	44.6

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 8	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 4:23P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 6, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * GHOST GIANT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. ABE HONESTLY: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). TR APPE THE DREAM: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FOLLOW THE SIGNS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and thi s is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
3	GHOST GIANT	3/1	9/2
9	ABE HONESTLY	6/1	6/1
6	TRAPPE THE DREAM	4/1	6/1
5	FOLLOW THE SIGNS	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	ABE HONESTLY	10	6/1	Front-runner	88	79	72.6	57.6	45.6
4	DOUBLE VISION	3	20/1	Front-runner	71	64	70.6	56.4	40.9
7	TOWN JAK	8	6/1	Stalker	75	73	57.0	64.0	50.0
10	ALONGCAMETHEPRINCE	11	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	67	58.4	53.6	39.1
3	GHOST GIANT	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	98	94	51.4	67.8	63.3
2	WINNING DRIVE	1	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	76	71	49.0	67.8	62.8
6	TRAPPE THE DREAM	7	4/1	Trailer	83	76	44.8	73.2	67.7
5	FOLLOW THE SIGNS	6	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	85	79	50.0	61.8	49.8
8	RALLY SQUIRREL	9	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	79	49.4	58.2	50.7
1A	VIBE SETTER	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	62	39.0	29.2	9.7
1	TENENCY	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	74	0.0	27.5	7.5

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 63

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 ABBMAR 10/1
# 4 MUD HUT 10/1
# 3 GREER CROSSING 8/1

I think ABBMAR is a quite good choice and is a formidable value bet given the line. Will almost certainly come out sharp - I have liked the way this mare has moved promptly to the front end recently. GREER CROSSING - Win percentage one of the best in this field.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts







Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 3:00pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#3 GOTHAM GRAY (ML=7/2)
#2 RIA FORMOSA (ML=6/1)


GOTHAM GRAY - I like to bet on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a sharp outing within the last month. The return on investment when Gallardo and Herrington get together is fantastic. Aboard this mount on July 9th and Gallardo is back again in the irons this time around. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. RIA FORMOSA - Fennessy has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to beware the longer priced half. Have to give this mare a good chance. Ran a sharp contest last time around the track within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 KAGERO (ML=8/5), #1 JAZZ TIME GIRL (ML=5/2), #5 OUTFACTORED (ML=8/1),

KAGERO - This mare is always in the mix, but just doesn't win. Difficult to wager on her on the top end. This stretch-runner will probably be coming much too late to make an impression in this race. This mount ran her best speed rating in awhile. May bounce and run poorly off that effort. Not a value play to back the favorite when she continues to lose time and time again when favored. JAZZ TIME GIRL - I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the job executed infrequently. OUTFACTORED - Tough for anyone who saw this steed in her last clash to wager on her in today's event. This horse ran a disappointing speed rating last out. She shouldn't improve and will likely lose in today's event running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 GOTHAM GRAY on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts





Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:15pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,300 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#6 UNFAITHFUL WAYS (ML=5/1)


UNFAITHFUL WAYS - Bracho rode this horse for the first time last out and comes right back in this race. This mare is in fine condition. Finished second on Jul 23rd. This horse is number one in earnings per race entered. She looks sharp in today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SHE'S SO BEARRISH (ML=6/5), #1 BIG SIS NIC (ML=7/2), #7 RUNAWAY MOM (ML=6/1),

SHE'S SO BEARRISH - I cannot play this perpetual non-winner. Gets the task finished infrequently. This mount ran a run-of-the-mill speed fig in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will likely get beat in today's event running that number. BIG SIS NIC - Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any type of closing ability on June 18th. RUNAWAY MOM - Pedestrian fig last out at Presque Isle Downs at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - UNFAITHFUL WAYS - Getting my cash. Tops in Power Rating and should go off at generous odds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 UNFAITHFUL WAYS on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with 2
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Maiden Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 UTSIRA 7/2
# 5 CHARLIE'S GAL 5/1
# 2 REINA'S VISION 15/1

UTSIRA figures to be the wager in here. Her 66 average has this filly with among the most respectable Equibase Speed Figures in this race. She looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in turf sprint contests in this field. CHARLIE'S GAL - Should best this group of horses in this race here, showing very good figs of late.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13700 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 LIFES ADVENTURE 3/1
# 3 DIAMOND CONCERTO 4/1
# 8 LOLLIPOP KID 5/1

LIFES ADVENTURE has a competitive shot to take this race. Handler has very strong win rate (21 percent) at this distance and surface. This gelding is coming back in next to no time to the track. With a solid 72 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. DIAMOND CONCERTO - Anderson has a strong winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races. Has to be considered - I like the numbers from the last affair. LOLLIPOP KID - Wagerers using horses with this jockey and conditioner combo have done strongly recently. Has been running soundly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / .50 Pick 5 (Races 3-4-5-6-7)
Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 4:55P
(RAIL AT 20 FEET). (INCLUDES UP TO $9,000 OTHER SOURCES) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MUCHO BUENO is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * THISGUYCANFLY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	THISGUYCANFLY	5/2	5/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MUCHO BUENO	1	10/1	Front-runner	56	53	71.1	45.6	28.6
4	KINGPRIN	4	12/1	Stalker	67	68	76.9	55.3	42.3
7	WESTERN STAR	7	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	70	61	83.6	59.4	49.4
8	THISGUYCANFLY	8	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	79	73	79.3	74.3	70.8
5	TACTICAL VISION	5	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	63	68.2	62.5	53.0
9	LITTLE WARRIOR	9	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	67	60	50.0	55.2	47.7
6	BIG TAP BABY	6	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	66	55	43.6	61.6	50.1
3	GO BROTHER GO	3	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	71	58.4	54.3	46.3
2	DEE'S LEGS	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	65	43.6	46.5	37.0

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

Thistledown - Race 5	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $12,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $16,600 • Post: 2:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 6 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. FAT DADDY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * IRISH UNITY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. AUGER: Hors e has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FAT DADDY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	IRISH UNITY	9/5	4/1
1	AUGER	9/2	9/2
5	FAT DADDY	2/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	IRISH UNITY	4	9/5	Front-runner	92	91	83.8	76.4	71.9
1	AUGER	1	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	91	86	62.6	81.0	78.5
5	FAT DADDY	5	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	89	71	55.8	80.4	76.4
3	THE DRAKE	3	10/1	Trailer	81	78	21.8	72.4	62.9
2	OTIS OTIS OTIS	2	5/2	Alternator/Non-contender	85	79	67.8	74.0	66.0

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts






Louisiana Downs - Race #5 - Post: 5:45pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#2 BRIARTOWN (ML=6/1)
#1 SHADY GRADY (ML=5/2)
#4 CREME DE BALI (ML=5/1)
#3 LITTLE ROCKY (ML=9/2)


BRIARTOWN - Suarez and Beavin getting together are a horseplayer's friend. Trainer, Beavin, has been deliberate with this colt off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. SHADY GRADY - The jock and handler combination have a beneficial ROI when they team up. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. CREME DE BALI - I unquestionably see favorable signs for this mount right here. LITTLE ROCKY - I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough outings since the layoff and should be fit. 29-72-77 are last 3 Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something he should do again right here in this race. Have to watch for this animal on the grass. Last race at Louisiana Downs, scored a big turf rating. Have to think he can do it again right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MOKINGS (ML=7/2), #5 WANNA WINNA (ML=8/1),

MOKINGS - Doubtful for this thoroughbred to make an impact with no recent good showings in a short distance event. Somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last time around the track at Louisiana Downs at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't believe this steed will improve too much in today's event. WANNA WINNA - This gelding didn't do much last time. Didn't display to me enough early speed in the route event for me to back him in today's sprint event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 BRIARTOWN to win at post-time odds of 9/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Hoosier Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
3	3	ROLLIN EXPLOSION	4/5	Wrenn, Peter - 22	439.07
1	1	SILENT BREEZE	6/1	Miller, Lewayne - 9	438.47
2	2	CLASSICAL JANE	10/1	Ross, Jordan - 11	428.37
8	8	NIFTY FIFTY	8/1	Miller, Zachary - 0	337.19
6	6	GLACIER SPRINGS	6/1	Shetler, Dan - 9	336.17
5	5	PREMIER ECHO POINT	10/1	Taylor, Robert - 12	319.62
7	7	DONTCALLMEANGEL	15/1	Smith, Joel - 0	0.00
4	4	BLUEBIRD LOLA	8/1	Tetrick, Trace - 19	0.00
9	9	DD'S MORNING GLORY	20/1	Wilfong, Kyle - 12	0.00

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Topsham

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Post: 3:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$1 - MAINE STANDARDBRED BREEDERS STAKES THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES TOPSHAM FAIR HAMMOND LUMBER

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 GOWESTYOUNGGRACE 2/1
# 4 GHOST OF YOU 7/2
# 2 PEMBROKE RED 8/1

Hey, listen up! GOWESTYOUNGGRACE is the educated wager if you like to win. Horoscope said take a chance today, this interesting entrant is as good as any to take a shot with. Has the makings of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 72 speed fig. Seems to have a great class edge based on the opponents she has raced against. GHOST OF YOU - She has been going to post competently and the speed figs are among the most favorable in the group of horses. Could quite possibly better this bunch given the 58 TrackMaster speed fig recorded in her most recent competition. PEMBROKE RED - With a 61 avg class stat, this entrant has one of the most solid class edges in the group of animals. Bang-up driver-trainer statistics make this nice horse a sharp choice. More than likely will be putting money down in this event.