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NHL Predictions
Minnesota Wild -113
The Penguins are playing in the back end of a back to back, as they lost in Winnipeg last night (2-1). The Penguins are 3-2-2 on the season, and will be without Malkin, Tyler Kennedy, and of course Crosby for tonight's game with the Wild. The Wild are 2-1-2 on the season, but 2-0-1 on home ice. The Wild offense hasn't been clicking yet, but new additions Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi should get it going soon and become a dangerous duo. Niklas Backstrom has looked great to start the season with a 1.93 GAA and .928 SV%. Take note that the Penguins see themselves in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation and are 3-7 in their last 10 times in that spot. Also note that Minnesota has had Pittsburgh's number beating them in 4 straight meetings. On home ice against against a Penguins team missing some key players who are on a back-to-back I like the Wild to get things done tonight. Take Minnesota as short favorites.
Phoenix Coyotes +120
Both the Blackhawks and the Coyotes enter the season with a 2-1-1 record. The Blackhawks are 0-1 in their lone road game against the Stars, while the Coyotes are 1-0 in their lone home game against the Jets. Chicago has lost to the Stars and Boston (in shootout) and has enjoyed wins over the Jets and Stars. The Coyotes opened the season with losses in San Jose and Dallas (shootout), but then went on to beat Nashville and Winnipeg by a combined score of 9-3. The Coyotes come into tonight's game feeling good off of the two straight wins, which included an impressive performance in their homeopener against the Jets where they outshot their opponents 34-19. We don't have a confirmed starter for the Coyotes in tonight's game, but whoever is in net should give Phoenix a chance to win. LaBrabera is 1-0 with a 2.00 GAA and .920 SV% in his lone start, and Mike Smith is 1-1-1 with a 2.63 GAA and .917 SV%. Phoenix has taken 5 of their last 8 meetings with the Blackhawks, and I think we have value on them getting them +120 at home against a team that the public loves to bet on.
Rangers / Canucks Under 5.5
The Rangers continue their road trip in Vancouver tonight, as they look to get their first win of the season. The Rangers are 0-1-2 on the season, which has included 2 games in Europe. The Canucks have started 2-2-1, but four of those games were played on the road. Vancouver fans will be happy to see Ryan Kesler return tonight, but I don't expect him to look 100% out there, and he is expected to start on a line with Higgins and Hodgson to let him ease back into the roster. The Rangers have scored just 5 goals in their first 3 games, but have kept two of their three games within a goal due to the play of Henrik Lundqvist. Lundqvist is 0-1-2 but has a 2.23 GAA and .923 SV%. Although not confirmed, I expect Luongo to start tonight at home, and although he his numbers aren't good to date I expect him to play well tonight. The UNDER is 18-6-2 in the Canucks last 26 home games, 20-7-3 in their last 30 games as a favorite, and 37-18-5 in their last 60 games as a big favorite of -151 to -200. The UNDER is 45-19-7 in the Rangers last 71 road games, and 7-2-1 in their last 10 vs Western Conference opponents. The UNDER is 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings, which includes a 1-0 New York win last season. Value here on the UNDER 5.5.Comment
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SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia -½ +100 over Ottawa
For those that don’t have the option of laying -½ +100, the recommendation is to play the three-way betting option (-110), which is essentially the exact same thing. There is always the possibility of a team “taking a night off” in a game that they’re supposed to win but this one actually sets up nicely for the Flyers. Philly has a horrible history at this venue with just six regulation wins over the past 31 times they’ve played here. That’s serious and don’t think for a second that they’re not aware of that. Ottawa has iced some extremely talented teams over the years but this year they’re going to be hard pressed to win 25 games. This is really a great chance for the Flyers to put this proverbial monkey to rest. Additionally, Philly is coming off a loss, not a win so they should be more motivated after a loss, as oppose to coming off four straight wins. The Sens have one win in five tries. In three of their losses they allowed five, six and seven goals respectively. They’ll also be without Sergei Gonchar, Bobby Butler and they’re forced to use backup goalie Alex Auld after Craig Anderson left to deal with some personal issues. If this one loses, so be it, but it sets up nice for the far superior club. Play: Philadelphia -½ +100 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +193 over WASHINGTON
The Panthers will play its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs but there’s a big difference between playing when you’re winning and playing when you’re losing. Florida is coming off back-to-back wins over the Lightning. They’ve now won three of their first four games and they’re likely going to give a little extra tonight in support of a rookie goaltender (Jacob Markstrom) making his NHL debut. The Panthers are a confident bunch that ripped off five power-play goals last night and can’t wait to get back on the ice tonight. The Capitals are a misleading 4-0 out of the gate and what that does is set up a sweet take-back against them. In their last game, Washington edged the Sens 2-1 after everyone else was blowing Ottawa away. The Caps won 3-2 in OT against Pittsburgh last Thursday in a game they were dominated in. Pittsburgh should have won that game by four goals. Against Tampa Bay, a team that is clearly not right, the Caps beat them 6-5 in OT. Finally, they beat Carolina in OT to open the year. So yeah, the Caps are 4-0 but they could just as easily be 0-4 and none of their wins have been even close to impressive. The Caps might not lose this one but they’re a great fade team over the next few games because they’re way overvalued and they’re not going to keep winning with the way that they’ve been playing. They could be a team on a serious decline this year. Play: Florida +193 (Risking 2 units).
Edmonton +150 over CALGARY
The Flames should not be favored by this much over anyone, period. Calgary returns home from a three-game East Coast trip where they won once and lost twice. Its lone win came in Montreal in a game that they were the second best team on the ice and were outshot 36-21. You look up and down this Flames roster and what you see is an old team. Alex Tanguay is in his 13th year, Jerome Iginla is in his 16th year, Cory Sarich is in his 13th year, Oli Jokinen is in his 14th year, Scott Hannan is in his 13th year, Niklas Hagman and Matt Stajan are in their 10th year and the list goes on. Calgary has one win in four games while the Oilers have one regulation loss in four tries. The Oilers are a team on the rise and those wins instill confidence. A young and talented team that starts winning is a dangerous team. Edmonton is coming off another confidence building 3-1 win over the Preds last night. They held Nashville to a mere 12 shots on net. This is a short trip to Edmonton but the mood in the dressing room is more positive than it’s been in a long time. The Oilers want this one badly, as it’s been over a year since they beat the Flames (five straight losses) and they’re about to send a message to this bitter rival that they’re “the team” to look out for in Alberta. Play: Edmonton +150 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +135 over LOS ANGELES
The Blues are 2-3 overall but have been the better team on the ice in every game with the exception of a 4-2 win over the Sharks. The Blue Notes wrap up a four-game trip here with a chance to even their record and they couldn’t have asked for a better spot. The Kings began the year with two games in Europe and after returning home they headed out for two more games on the East Coast. That’s some mean scheduling by the league. Additionally, the Kings lost Drew Doughty to injury and that’s a huge loss. After that brutal traveling schedule, there’s great chance the Kings will be extremely flat here and that provides us with a great opportunity to cash our ticket. The Blue Notes are playing some fine hockey and own one of the more early-season, misleading records in the league. Definite overlay. Play: St. Louis +135 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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Wunderdog
Panthers vs. Capitals
Play: Under 5.5
The Florida Panthers head to Washington to face-off vs. the Washington Capitals, and it should be a good one. Florida brings a 3-1 record to start the season, while the Caps sit at a perfect 4-0 with three of the wins coming at home. This is a division game that has some early-season clout as these clubs battle for first place, and that should offer a hard-fought, tight-checking contest. Florida has played their last games without rest to a 6-0-1 mark to the UNDER, and the Panthers have also now played to a 17-6-3 UNDER mark in their last 26 vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Capitals are taking note of opponents scoring big in their previous game, and have really tightened things up and are now a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER when facing an opponent that tallied 5 or more in their previous game. Washington is also well rested and off two days rest they are 18-4 to the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game.Comment
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DAVID BANKS
FIU Golden Panthers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
The Sun Belt takes center stage on the college gridiron when the Florida International Golden Panthers and Arkansas State Red Wolves collide under the Tuesday night lights; kick-off from ASU Stadium is set for 8:00 ET on ESPN.
FIU will look to claw above the breakeven point on Tuesday night when it locks horns with the Red Wolves after splitting its first two Sun Belt clashes against both North Texas and Louisiana. Coach Mario Cristobal’s kids stepped out of conference play last week and knocked off the Zips of Akron by a 27-17 final tally as lofty 17-point favorites; the win was the team’s second of the season on the road. QB Wesley Carroll and WR T.Y Hilton could be in store for huge games in this spot with the Red Wolves giving up 222 YPG through the air (#62), but the Golden Panthers will also have a heck of a time limiting Arkansas State’s passing game considering they’ve been picked apart for an average of 245.3 YPG (#87) through the air themselves. FIU’s just 1-8 ATS its L/9 games played in the month of October.
Though Arkansas State put forth a 4-8 SU record a year ago, the Red Wolves were lucrative for their betting backers ultimately going 7-5 against the closing number. New head coach Hugh Freeze’s kids have parlayed last year’s pointspread success into a moneymaking 5-1 ATS mark over the course of the first six games of their 2011-12 campaign. The squad has been decent on both sides of the ball as the offense ranks 28th in the land in total yards gained (444.2 YPG) as well as 36th in total yards allowed (344.8 YPG). QB Ryan Aplin has already thrown for 1646 yards heading into this one, but his 6/8 TD/INT ratio leaves a little cause for concern. This will only be the Red Wolves third home game of the season; a spot the team has covered in five of their L/6 tries.
The home team has dominated the all-time series between these Sun Belt Conference rivals winning five of the six SU while going 4-2 ATS; the ‘under’ holds a 4-2 advantage as well. FIU covered as 4.5-point favorites in its 31-24 win a year ago. FIU has never won in Jonesboro and has been outscored by the aggregate score of 120-58 in its three overall visits. That said; the Golden Panthers are 3-1-1 ATS their L/5 road games and 5-2 ATS the L/7 times they were installed underdogs. Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS its L/5 as home chalk, but have also gone a wretched 3-9 ATS the L/12 times when playing off a bye.
PICK: UNDERComment
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TGS Score Forecast: FIU 27 - Arkansas State 23Comment
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