Saturday 8/31/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Sun-8

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

[ConleyPicks]

Matt Fargo

This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS+35 for our Saturday Free Play. This line opened Texas -35 to -36 and was bet down to -32 in some places over a week ago but as expected, the public money is coming back in on the Longhorns and the number is rising again. They come into the season with National Championship aspirations and with the comes inflated number especially early on in the season against teams it should push around. This is not a layup though as Texas should not have any worries about losing but what they show is the big story. The Longhorns have a game against Michigan on deck and it is very unlikely they open up the entire playbook here. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses top five receivers. The Longhorns also lost leading rusher Jonathan Brooks and his replacement, CJ Baxter, was lost for the season with a torn ACL and PCL. The defense will be stout once again but the Longhorns do have a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. Colorado St. put together five straight winning seasons from 2013-2017 but now they have a string of six straight losing campaigns culminating with its 5-7 record last year. The Rams had a chance to make it to a bowl game but lost its season finale as a favorite at Hawaii. Four of the seven losses were by one possession so there was progress last season following back-to-back 3-9 campaigns and they are looking for the breakthrough. Head coach Jay Norvell has this team going in the right direction entering his third season after proven success at Nevada where he got out at the right time. The offense nearly doubled its output, going from 13.2 ppg in 2022 to 26.1 ppg in 2023 thanks to the top passing game in the MWC that finished No. 9 in the country led by all MWC quarterback Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi. His top target Tory Horton returns and while they lose their leading rusher, there was not much there anyway. The offensive line returns four of five starters. The defense regressed from 2022 but the Rams are athletic and will show improvement. Three of their top four tacklers that combined for 296 tackles are back and the secondary is loaded. Play (187) Colorado St. Rams

[ConleyPicks]

Mike Lundin

COLORADO STATE/TEXAS CFB FREE PICK

The Colorado State Rams return QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi who threw for 3,460 yards and 22 touchdowns last season.

They'll need their passing game to be on point here to keep this even relatively close against a Texas Longhorns team that ranked 15th in the nation in points scored per game last season.

I expect the Longhorns to also rely on their passing game, as they're dealing with injuries in the backfield.

3% PLAY ON THE OVER 59.5 -115

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ProSportsPicks

PSP Data Driven 1* Free Pick: Miami (FL)-140

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind.
Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Miami-FL are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Florida. Florida are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games.

[ConleyPicks]

Stephen Nover

Free Pick: Old Dominion+21 -109

Whether it's injuries, bad defense or offensive inefficiency, I don't trust South Carolina especially in a big favorite's role. The Gamecocks are likely to start slow with a new quarterback and an offensive line with much to prove following a 5-7 record last season.

Yes, there's a class difference with South Carolina being an SEC team and Old Dominion coming from the Sun Belt Conference. Old Dominion, though, is well-coached behind Rickey Rahne, has been to a bowl game in two of the last three years, has a decent QB in dual-threat Grant Wilson and one of the top middle linebackers in the country, Jason Henderson.

The Monarchs know how to keep games close, too, as 11 of their final 12 games were one-scoring contests. Six of the games were decided on the final play. Old Dominion isn't fancy. What the Monarchs are is a solid, competitive team.

South Carolina ranked 128th rushing and were 90th in total defense last year. The Gamecocks are hoping LaNorris Sellers can replace Spencer Rattler, who was one of the most talented passers in college football last year and is now the New Orleans Saints' backup quarterback. Sellers is athletic, but it remains to be seen how accurate of a passer he is.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeff Alexander

1* NCAAF - Old Dominion/S Carolina FREE PICK on South Carolina -21 -109

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Kyle Hunter

*Free Play on Sam Houston+10 -109* I said going into the season I wanted to be high on Sam Houston. I have to look towards them against a Rice team that I think could be a bit overvalued in the market right now. I think they are a well coached team. I give them the coaching advantage in this game. Rice’s EJ Warner has potential but he has been a turnover machine. McCaffrey was a big loss at WR for Rice. The Owls lack weapons at RB and WR.

Sam Houston’s defense is feisty. Hawkins from VA Tech a good pickup in the secondary. The injuries that Sam Houston had last year were epic. I have to assume they’ll have a little better injury luck at the skill positions on offense. They really turned the corner late last year.

I don’t see either offense as high flying and two scrappy defenses with a fairly low total. I’ll take the 10 points.

[ConleyPicks]

Dave Price

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on UNLV +3 -105

The Key: Barry Odom led UNLV to their first bowl games since 2013 and their first 9-win season since 1984 in his first season on the job last year. Odom is finally getting the players that UNLV should be able to acquire and he is getting the most out of them. They have 11 starters back including WR Ricky White, who had 88 receptions for 1,483 yards and 8 TD last year. Five of the top seven tackles are back on defense. They added Holy Cross transfer Matthew Sluka, who was one of the most sought-after QB's at the FCS level. While the Rebels are on the rise, the Houston Cougars are rebuilding. Willie Fritz is one of the better head coaches in the country, but he has his work cut out for him in Year 1. Fritz only has 10 starters and 18 lettermen returning from last year. He did great things at Tulane, but keep in mind he had 2 losing seasons to start his tenure there. Houston went 4-8 last year with 3 of the 4 wins coming by 3 points or less, so they were close to being 1-11. Take UNLV.

[ConleyPicks]

Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Mets-190

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Reds+107

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Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on HAW+14 -109

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- UCLA has a new coaching staff and plenty of player turnover.

- Hawaii has a senior QB and plenty of returning starters in the 3rd season under Timmy Chang.

- Hawaii has the advantage of playing a warmup game versus Delaware State last week.

Verdict: The Value is on the home Underdog.

[ConleyPicks]

Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Notre Dame+3

Game 209.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

Preseason polls have Notre Dame ranked seventh and Texas A&M ranked 20th. Seeing the Fighting Irish open the campaign up as an underdog is uncharacteristic. A season ago, there were in the role of an underdog just once, and failed to win outright. However, they did cover the 3.5-point spread at home against Ohio State, dropping the game, 17-14. As a matter of fact, this team was money last year ATS, covering 10 of 13 overall contests. Obviously playing in College Station where you have 102,000 screaming fans is always going to be a benefit. This team was pretty darn good at home last year, winning six of seven games played on their own field. Both teams have some big name new additions transferred in. But I think the major difference will be the superior defense of Notre Dame. This is a team that allowed just 15.9-points per game a season ago. The one issue they experienced last year was turnovers on their offensive side of the ball. With some new playmakers at key positions, reports are the situation will certainly be significantly better. Just giving this team points I think is a mistake. While I believe both offenses will find the endzone, in the long run the, difference will be the stop-unit of the Fighting Irish. Take Notre Dame. Thank you.

[ConleyPicks]

Marc David

David's 1% NCAAF Free Pick

We are leaning toward the favorite in this matchup. The price seems off when you consider that the Aggies will be looking forward to a fresh start under new head coach Mike Elko following a disappointing era under Jimbo Fisher., and how the fanatic hometown crowd will be loud and carry their team to a win.

This is a 1% play on Texas A&M on the moneyline (-150)

[ConleyPicks]

John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Fresno State +21 -109

The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a perfect 15-0 season and their first National Title since their split title in 1997. There was already going to be a championship hangover. That's made even worse by the fact that they lost their leader in Jim Harbaugh to the NFL as he bolted to avoid punishment. Michigan loses 14 starters from that team to boot and half of them are in the NFL. Only two starters return on offense as they break in an entirely new offensive line, and their QB situation is one of the worst in the Big Ten with dual-threat Alex Orji being a much bigger threat with his legs than with his arm. Michigan has Texas on deck next week and won't want to show too much in the opener, and could easily be looking ahead to that game. Fresno State went 9-4 last season including road wins over Purdue and Arizona State in non-conference play. The Bulldogs have 13 starters back including QB Mikey Keene, who threw for nearly 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns with 67.1% completions last year. The Bulldogs still have the motto of 'anyone, anywhere, anytime' and they won't be intimidated by Michigan. Give me Fresno State.

[ConleyPicks]

Brandon Lee

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick

PLAY ON: Kentucky -28 -109

I will lay the 28 points at home with Kentucky against Southern Miss on Saturday. I just think this Wildcats' team is not getting near enough respect coming into this season. The Wildcats have 18 of 22 starts on offense/defense back from a 7 win team in 2023.

The two big losses were on offense, with the departures of starting quarterback Devin Leary and star running back Ray Davis. I don't think there will be any drop off at all from Leary with junior transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff, who comes over from Georgia (Top 5 rated QB out of high school). As for replacing Davis, that won't be so easy, but Kentucky does look to have maybe it's best offensive line of the Stoops era (this is year 13 with Kentucky).

As for the defense, the Wildcats have 10 of 11 starters back. This should be one of the better defenses of the Stoops era as well.

I just don't see how Southern Miss keeps this close. The Golden Eagles have just 10 starters returning from last season (4 offense, 6 defense). They too have to replace a stud back in Frank Gore, who had 1,100 yards and 10 scores. They also lose their top 2 pass catchers, starting QB and have just 64 career starts returning on the o-line. The defense for Southern Miss gave up 35.8 ppg and 421 ypg (5.1 yards/carry) last year.

Lastly, Kentucky is expected to play much faster than they have in recent years, which I think should lead to even more scoring opportunities in this one. I think we get something like a 42-7 type of final here. Give me Kentucky -28!