Saturday 8/31/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Rockies+155

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

[ConleyPicks]

Jack Jones

ack's Free Pick Saturday: Wyoming +7 -103

The Wyoming Cowboys have been the model of consistency with seven winning seasons in the last eight years with the lone exception being the Covid-shortened 2020 season (2-4). Craig Bohl did a tremendous job here and retires off his best season yet, a 9-4 campaign in 2023.

While the loss of Bohl cannot be overstated, he positioned the Cowboys to be successful moving forward while carrying on his winning tradition. The new head coach is Jay Sawvel, who was promoted after serving as the defensive coordinator since 2019. The offensive coordinator will be Jay Johnson from Michigan State. The new defensive coordinator is Aaron Bohl, who was the LB coach the last four years under his dad.

Sawvel welcomes 13 starters back this season including a loaded defense that returns six of their top seven tacklers. The standouts are LB Shae Suianunoa (93 tackles '23) and FS Wyett Ekeler (77 tackles, 2 INT '23). This is a defense that gave up just 22.3 points per game last season and is loaded again.

QB Andrew Peasley has moved on to the NFL, but I really like the potential of the 6-foot-5, 245 LB Evan Svoboda. He led the final two drives of their bowl win and also kept them competitive against Texas last year in a game that was tied in the 4th quarter. He is drawing comparisons to former Wyoming QB, Josh Allen. Four starters return along the offensive line which will be huge in Svoboda's success this year. Star RB Harrison Waylee will miss this game, but UNC transfer DJ Jones along with Sam Scott can fill his shoes until he returns.

This play is as much of a fade of Arizona State as anything. The Sun Devils move to the Big 12 this season and could be the worst team in the league. They went just 3-9 in Kenny Dillingham's first season on the job last year, where the 32-year-old was the youngest head coach in the Power 5. They scored just 17.8 points per game and allowed 31.8 points per game last season as they were rarely competitive. They lost 29-0 at home to another MWC opponent in Fresno State last year.

This is a big rebuilding job for Dillingham and it won't go much better in Year 2. He has just 10 returning starters and hit the transfer portal hard. The new QB will be Michigan State transfer Sem Leavitt. He will have his hands full with four new starters along the offensive line and three new pass catchers with the losses of their top two receivers. Projected starting RG Sean Na'a is out with a leg injury as well.

The Sun Devils only return four starters on defense and will be without 10 of their top 13 tacklers from a year ago with DE Prince Dorbah (30 tackles, 6 sacks '23) out with a leg injury for this one. No question Dillingham brought in some talent here via the transfer portal to fill some of these voids, but I don't expect them to be clicking in Week 1. This line should be much closer to PK. Bet Wyoming Saturday.

[ConleyPicks]

Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Football bet 8/31 Arizona State Sun Devils-6 -115 over Wyoming Cowboys (10:30p.m., Saturday, August 31 FS1) Year two of the Kenny Dillingham era should go much smoother and this is a game the Sun Devils need to win to keep the fan base interested. The Cowboys had a coaching change of their own and must replace a bunch of talent on offense including their quarterback. They had three close wins last season, and I do not see them being as fortunate in 2024. Lay the points with the home team and expect the Sun Devils to come out with a double-digit victory. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring football, MLB, WNBA, and horse racing. Sign-up now and let 53 years of handicapping experience work for you.

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

SUNDAY HUSKER PICK ASA PLAY ON Arizona -29.5 -111 over New Mexico, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - New Arizona head coach Brent Brennan takes over a team loaded with talent after former head man Jedd Fisch moved onto Washington. The Cats have 3 players projected as 1st round draft picks next year (WR, OL, and CB). On top of that Arizona returns QB Fafita who put up big numbers (2,900 yards passing and 25 TD’s) after taking over the starting job in game 4 last year. The Cats put up 38 PPG after Fifita took over and they should log huge numbers here vs a New Mexico defense that gave up 567 yards last week to FCS Montana State. The Lobos were double digit dogs at HOME to Montana State and the final score (lost 35-31) was not indicative of the Bobcats dominance. New Mexico had 2 defensive TD’s in the game and were outgained by over 200 yards, outrushed by over 200 yards, and had 10 minute time of possession disadvantage. Now after getting dominated by a very good FCS team, the Lobos take the road and face on one of the better FBS teams. Arizona has an advantage with a full game of film on New Mexico as well while the Lobos are flying blind not knowing how the Wildcats will operate with a new coaching staff. Arizona could easily push 50 points here while we don’t expect the Lobos offense to do much after scoring just 17 points (minus the defensive points) last week at home. Blowout.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Moahawk Park Late Pick 5 Analysis

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August 31, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Woodbine Mohawk Park has a loaded 12-race card. The headliners are the Canadian Pacing Derby with a $540,000 purse that rolls in Race 8, and the Maple Leaf Trot with a $600,000 purse goes in Race 10. The 0.20 Late Pick 5 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (9:23 PM EST)

3-Highland Kismet (4/5)-The Mark Etsell pupil has won 5 of 6 at Mohawk and finished 2nd in the other race after missing a start due to a sick scratch. Finished 2nd in the Hambo Final on 8-3 and tuned up for this race with a 153.0 win in a qualifier on 8-23. Qualified without hopples, will race that way on Saturday and should have his way with this field.

Race 7 (9:48 PM EST)

2-Stonebridge Wizard (4-1)-Beaten 3/2 chalk likes to race near the top of the stack and worked hard to get there last time. Didn't have any pop in the last part of the mile. Will look for a more efficient trip and a rebound effort.
5-Fifth And Five (3-1)-Shows good speed and comes off a nice effort from the 8-hole but faded down the lane. Took control off the gate and the post relief tonight could be the winning difference.
7-Century Lucifer (9/2)-Broke stride from the 9-hole at the start last time and lost all chance. Did win 2 of the 3 previous races. Could offer a square price and is a threat if gets off the gate and lands in a close-up seat.
9-Boxer Seelster (5/2)-Got an efficient trip and turned that into a big check at 9-1 in a Nassagaweya Stakes. The post helps the price, comes back in sequence, and doesn't need to lead every step of the way to post a win.

Race 8 (10:17 PM EST)

1-Oakwood Ardan IR (3-1)-Not sure drawing the 1-hole helps chances. But if Andy McCarthy can work the right trip the Sweet Lou 5-year-old can close like a jet. Shouldn't be pace compromised and best to respect.
6-Abuckabet Hanover (5/2)-On paper this looks like the winner with a smooth trip. Has won 7 of 16 races at Wbsb and Dexter Dunn could be taking another picture tonight.
7-Seven Colors (15-1)-Looking for a price to spice up the payout and landed on Abuckabet's stablemate. Does have only 1 win in 9 starts this year but JMac should have in play at the 3/4's pole. If they go fast enough early on the younger of the Andrew Harris entries could give you a run for your money.
11-Taurasi (4-1)-Could make the race very interesting if gets near the top of the stack early on. Likes to take control but can also roll late. Could have more than a punchers chance despite the post draw if finds some inside speed to follow when the wings fold. This won't be easy, but Doug McNair knows how to get the job done.

Race 9 (10:43 PM EST)

5-P L Ozzy (9/2)-Makes the 2nd start for the Fellows barn and did show good early speed last time leaving from post 8. JMac steers again, could benefit from the post relief and land in a close-up seat when the wings fold. Has won 6 of 24 races at Wbsb and should offer a fair price.
6-Mr Ibiza N (3-1)-Gets a positive driver change with McNair between the pipes. Did win the last time that pilot steered on 6-8 and beat better than this. Raced well in last and will look for the upswing to continue.
10-Stockade Seelster (7/2)-Offers value at 7/2 but not sure that price holds up even with the post draw. This is the 3rd start off a sick scratch and Louie Roy should have the pedal down off the gate. It could be picture time if lands in good shape by the opening turn.

Race 10 (11:12 PM EST)

5-Periculum (9/5)-Did get a nice trip in the Maple Leaf Elim but best to not diminish the performance by the Marcus Melander pupil. Trotted the back half in 55.1, could get the same trip here and the fractions should be lively again. Will look for Scotty Zeron to be close to the leader around the last turn and fly by down the lane.

$1.00 Late Pick 5

3/2,5,7,9/1,6,7,11/5,6,10/5
Total Bet=$48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Del Mar - Race #5

#3 Balladeer	He should be a solid price today after finishing behind some of these last out, but there isn't any real pace lined up in here, and he occasionally brings a race that would be competitive if he can control the splits and find something left late. Worth a thrill.
#7 Gold Phoenix	He didn't get the greatest run of things last time out, but he still has some tables to turn today on a couple who beat him that day. His better stuff wins this.
#1 Balnikhov	He has been thriving lately and looks competitive on paper, but he's a deep finisher at the mercy of what might be a modest pace. Dangerous turn of foot if he can stay in touch.
Race Summary	Balladeer was within a length of Gold Phoenix a couple starts back, and I think that guy is the one to beat in here. Add in a decent price and a positive race shape, and he's worth a look.

Del Mar - Race #9

#11 Johnny Podres	Finisher was rolling home at this trip last time out, and he should be an OK price while rising back into stakes company. The race flow should flatter him with several pace players lined up.
#10 Motorious	Not sure what to make of his modest form so far this season, but he was sharp enough in this race last year that he went off at 2.90-1 in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint where he was fifth. Gets the same setup as the top choice.
#4 Daniel's Magic	He has found this kind of company a little tough in the past, but he might wind up in a brilliant spot tucked in just behind the committed speed players. Gets towed into the splits to take first jump?
Race Summary	Johnny Podres and Motorious seem like the right pair to me, but I'd want Daniel's Magic on the tickets with some finishing ability from a more tactical position.

Del Mar - Race #11

#6 Irideo	Probably a bit of a swing here, but he was impossibly bad last time out and almost has to bounce back with something better. The price should be big, and he has been in the picture with some of these in the past. Needs his A++ game.
#10 Exaulted	Believers should get some kind of better price today as his form hasn't quite held up in 2024 so far, but he got pretty good last summer and is competitive here if he finds something like that today.
#3 Du Jour	He was an easy winner here last year and has a little bit of versatility in his running style, but he's probably better being a bit more of a finisher than he was last out. Dangerous rebound player.
Race Summary	Irideo is a longshot swing, but there are a couple races on his page that make him interesting at a big number in a really fun race. Could see #4 Almendares and #9 First Peace getting involved, too.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#3 BAD HOMBRE (9-2)	Gets in light, should sit good trip with Maldonado, good value play.
#2 BAD HENRY (6-1)	Rallied for share in 2 of last 3 routes on a fast track, use in gimmicks.
#4 DUKE OF DOOLY (5-2)	Good first gear but not worth price with 1-for-25 record.
Race Summary	BAD HOMBRE carries 12 pounds less than most of his rivals and can stalk and pounce on an ideal pace while running for the cheapest tag of his career. He ‘continued well’ after the top two finishers passed by in a longer route last out. Bet to win and place and play a 2,3/2,3,4,7,8 exacta.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#7 TOADY HOPPER (5-1)	Ran into trouble twice in debut sprint, wouldn’t expect 5-1 odds.
#4 MAT MATTERS (1-1)	Appears stuck in ‘third’ gear, not excuse on the class drop.
#5 BRAVE SAND RIDER (8-1)	Was on the improve before latest, price attached again.
Race Summary	TOADY HOPPER was shuffled on the backstretch and checked on the turn but still managed to get up for second between the two favorites in his debut. The son of multiple graded stakes-winning router Hoppertunity should handle the added ground. Bet to win and place and play 7-4 and 7-5 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#2 ARROW SPEED (2-1)	Solid numbers, 6/1-3-0 route record this year, gelded since claim last out.
#4 SECRET ZIPPER (5-1)	Can carry his speed a long way on class drop, changes riders again.
#6 QUISTMER (3-1)	Won at one mile, second in three-horse follow-up race for $40k.
Race Summary	ARROW SPEED drifted in the stretch but held well to finish second to the favorite in the same spot. He was claimed by Ness and returns as a gelding. Bet to win and place and play 2-4 and 2-6 exactas.