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BOBBY FELTON
4 Star NORTHWESTERN +4
3 Star NC STATE +6
3 Star OREGON STATE +3
2 Star PURDUE +4
4 Star NORTHWESTERN +4
3 Star NC STATE +6
3 Star OREGON STATE +3
2 Star PURDUE +4
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Week 8 NCAA Trends & Angles
After seven weeks of the college football season, we have found a strange correlation seemingly unique to college between teams on long straight up losing streaks and those teams going 'under' in their next game.
Honestly, we do not have a good explanation for this, and as we said, this only seems to work in college football, but as you will see in our first two angles for Week 8, there appears to be a straight line relationship between the length of the losing streak (starting at five) and the winning percentage of the 'under' in the next game. This angle also seems to work better on the road in all cases.
Play the 'under' if a team has lost at least five straight games straight up (202-146-1, 58.0% since 2005): We are not sure about the reasoning behind this phenomenon, but there appears to be a direct relationship in college football between long losing streaks and going 'under' in the next game, especially on the road. When the team that he lost five straight is on the road, the 'under' is 99-70, 58.6 percent since 2005. This trend is a perfect 3-0 for the 'under' this season including 2-0 on the road. There are three teams in action this week that have lost five straight games, with two of them at home (Florida Atlantic, UAB) and one on the road (New Mexico).
Play the 'under' if a team has lost at least six straight games straight up (132-80, 61.4% since 2005): Add one loss to the previous angle and the 'under' percentage goes to over 61 percent overall and to 68-41, 62.4 percent on the road. All three teams that qualified for the five-loss angle have actually lost six games in a row, so the same three teams qualify here. These are the first three qualifiers for the 2011 season. We would also like to note that the 'under' is 81-49, 62.3 percent if a team has lost seven straight games since 2005, so keep an eye on that next week.
Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last two games (190-128-2, 59.7% ATS since 2005): These are oftentimes teams that are not used to being favored, and this record suggests that they usually cannot handle the pressure of being expected to win. Betting against these favorites in unchartered territory would have produced a nice profit of +49.2 units since 2005 based on one unit per play at odds of -110. This angle was off to a 10-0 ATS this season before a 1-5 ATS week in Week 6, but it bounced back strong by going 5-2 ATS last week, running its record to 16-7 ATS this season. There are three qualifying play for Week 8: Central Michigan +1½ at Ball State, Utah +3 at California and Georgia Tech +2½ at Miami-Florida.
Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last three games (102-64-1, 61.2% ATS since 2005): Tack on a third straight game as an underdog coming into this game to our previous angle and the winning percentage jumps to over 61 percent over a fairly nice sized sampling. The one qualifier from the prior angle that also qualifies for this one is Central Michigan +1½.
Play on any conference home favorite coming off of six straight up wins or more (119-67-3, 64.0% ATS since 2002): Yes, you read that correctly, this is an angle that has gone 64 percent over 186 decisions going all the way back to 2002, and unlike most of our other angles, this system is not contrarian! A team that wins six straight games in the same season is usually a good team, as that is enough wins where not all the victories can be attributed to luck, and these teams should continue to succeed inside their conference. Add in home favoritism and the results have been rather phenomenal over a nice nine-year span, as you can see. Yes, this angle lost its first play of the year last week with Illinois, but it has a chance to bounce back with seven big favorites in Week 8: Alabama -28½, Boise State -31, Clemson -10½, Houston -22, LSU -22½, Oklahoma -28½ and Stanford -20½.
Play on any divisional road underdog coming off of a road game (110-79-1, 58.2% ATS since 2005): This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we often referenced, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially when the second game is against a divisional opponent that they are very familiar with.. There is one qualifying play for Week 8 and it is a repeat trender Georgia Tech +2½.
Bet against any conference home favorite coming off of 2 home games (87-58-7, 60.0% ATS since 2005): Some may think that playing a third straight home game is an advantage, and while that may be true on the field, it has not been at the betting windows as books are aware that these teams have an advantage and bettors like to bet on them, so they are able to pad these lines. Also, if the third straight home game is a conference game, the home team is usually facing a team that is familiar with them. This angle points to two plays in Week 8: Fresno State +10½ at Nevada and NC State +5½ at Virginia.Comment
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