Saturday 9/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Mike Lundin

CENTRAL MICHIGAN/ILLINOIS CFB FREE PICK

Central Michigan is coming off a tough 52-16 loss to Florida International. That, along with Illinois pulling off an upset against Kansas, has led bookmakers to undervalue CMU in this matchup.

But don’t overlook the fact that despite last week's blowout loss, the Chippewas outgained FIU 369-309 in total yards. Turnovers were the real problem—they had six, and Illinois has forced eight turnovers this season. But there's a big luck factor in turnovers, and those kinds of things tend to even out over time.

3% FREE PICK ON CENTRAL MICHIGAN+21 -105

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Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Boston College vs Missouri under 53.5 -110

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Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Red Sox+172

No analysis provided.

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Kyle Hunter

*Free Play on West Virginia/Pittsburgh Over 61.5 -110*

Pitt wasn’t kidding when they said they were going to play fast. They are 3rd in the nation in tempo now. Throwing the ball on 56.1% of plays. Being aggressive. Eli Holstein is taking a lot of chances and is capable of big positive plays and/or pick sixes the other way.

I do think the West Virginia secondary is the weakness of the defense. We saw Drew Allar look very good against them and then Albany threw for more than 300 yards as well.

W VA’s OLine is excellent and they have a great tailback duo. Corey Kiner ran for 7.5 yards per carry on them last week. I think West VA runs wild on Pitt here. West VA above average in tempo at 48th in the country.

These two defenses are 131st and 123rd in the country in explosiveness allowed.

The tempo should be quick in this one and the defenses give up big plays. Take the over here.

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Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on West Virginia minus the points (-2) -110 over Pittsburgh at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Backyard Brawl will take place at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh on Saturday and this year's instalment features plenty of intrigue. I can't help but feel the wrong team is favored, even with Pittsburgh sporting the better record in the early going.

If you watched Pitt's come-from-behind win over Cincinnati last week you know that it really had no business winning that game. The Bearcats built a big lead and then stopped playing. I still find Cincinnati's hiring of head coach Scott Satterfield prior to last season a curious move but that's another story.

Last week's game was marred by poor quarterback play. Panthers QB Eli Holstein has shown flashes of brilliance but he's still a work-in-progress. Backfield burner Desmond Reid had to leave the game several times after getting banged-up. He can be a game-breaker but as a smallish back his durability is a question.

I'm high on the West Virginia defense in particular. This is a team that got off to a tough start to the season with a strange game against Penn State that included a long weather delay in Week 1. The Mountaineers rebounded as expected against FCS squad Albany last week, winning 49-14. I like the fact that they had a glorified scrimmage while Pitt was involved in such a hard-fought battle on the road against Cincinnati. Take West Virginia.

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Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Pittsburgh+2 -115

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Stephen Nover

Free Play: Notre Dame-7.5 -105

The look-ahead line on this matchup was Notre Dame minus 16. But now after the Irish lost straight-up as four-touchdown favorites against Northern Illinois last week the line is down to a touchdown, Riley Leonard suddenly is a lousy quarterback and Marcus Freeman is the worst Notre Dame coach since Gerry Faust.

Time-out please. The Irish's loss to Northern Illinois was one of the biggest upsets of the decade. But the overreaction is way too over the top.

Look, I'm not sold on Freeman. Notre Dame, though, is 6-1 following a loss under Freeman. Leonard isn't a great downfield passer. He is a heady, experienced QB with outstanding intangibles and running ability. Nobody questioned Leonard's talents when he was at Duke last year.

Just who is Purdue? The Boilermakers are worse under second-year coach Ryan Walters than they were during the five-year Jeff Brohm era. Purdue was 4-8 SU and ATS last season. Brohm would have been appalled by the Boilermakers' lack of scoring as they were held to fewer than 21 points in seven of their games.

I certainly would take Leonard ahead of Purdue quarterback Houston Card. The Irish hold talent edges all across the field against Purdue. The Boilermakers are projected to be one of the lower-ranking Big Ten teams again this season.

And, now, the Irish certainly aren't going to lack motivation. This is a statement game for Freeman and his future. If the Irish were to lose here, their playoff hopes would already be extinguished.

The point spread has dropped low enough to back the Irish.

I am 29-13-1 on my last 43 premium/free plays.

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Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Under 44 in Nevada Wolf Pack @ Minnesota Golden Gophers (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 14 BTN) We hit a free pick under last week and we will try for two in a row in this game. Nevada offense is better than last year, but it still struggles to score points on a consistent basis. Minnesota will be able to stop the run and that will mean Nevada have to move the football through the air. I do not see them having much success in that department. Minnesota ran it up last week against an FCS team, but they scored just 17 points against North Carolina in Week 1, a team that is traditionally bad on defense. I see about 40 total points being scored in this game and we will hit the under with this free play. Do not miss out on our weekend football card, featuring a top play in the NFL and a slate of winners all weekend long. Sign-up now and let Doc’s Sports and their 53 years of handicapping experience work for you.

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Jeff Alexander

1* NCAAF - Texas A&M/Florida FREE PICK on Florida +3.5 -109

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Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Brusque+220 (Soccer)

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John Ryan

Utah vs Utah State
4:30 ET, Saturday September 14, 2024
Maverik Stadium, Logan Utah
21-12 (64%) and $871 in profits for the $100 bettor since September 1.
2-0 ATS Thursday NFL w/Bills and ASU
30+ years of pro betting experience.
5 Premium 8-Unit picks go Saturday and 1 goes Friday night that you do not want to miss.

5-Unit Best Bet on Utah priced as 18.5-point favorites.

The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has gone 51-9 straight-up (SU) and 40-20 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:

Bet on road favorites.

That team allowed 225 or fewer total offensive yards in their previous game.

The opponent was outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game.

If our road team is priced as a double-digit favorite, they have gone 38-3 SU and 28-13 ATS for 68% winning bets.

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Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Mirassol-119 (Soccer)

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ASA

#172 ASA FREE PLAY ON Eastern Michigan+2 -109 vs. Jacksonville State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Understand, these are two bad teams, but EMU holds an advantage in a few key areas and are playing at home with revenge from last season. The Eagles are off a thrashing against Washington but did open the season with a road win against Massachusetts, who we grade similarly to Jax State. In the game vs. UMass the Eagles put up 28-points, 375 total yards at 5.9YPP. EMU QB Snyder was an efficient 17/28 for 241 yards and a TD. Jacksonville State opened the season with a blowout loss to Coastal Carolina, then traveled to Louisville last week and lost 14-49. The Gamecocks defense has been lit-up for 581 YPG (126th), 7.9 YPP (124th), 263 rushing yards per game (122nd) and 17.6 yards per completion (126th). Offensively JST has some major issues at the QB position with Tyler Huff struggling in two games with just 333 total yards and 2 TD’s to 3 INT’s. The Gamecocks are averaging 5.5 yards per play and 323 YPG with only 5 total trips to opponents Red Zone. The Eagles have won 9 straight home openers, Jax State has failed to cover three straight non-conference games.

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Brandon Lee

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick

PLAY ON: Colorado State +7 -105

I'm betting Colorado State +7 at home in Saturday's showdown with in-state rival Colorado. The Rams certainly will have this one circled on the schedule. Colorado State will also be out for revenge after giving away last year's matchup (lost in OT). I think they have a great shot of winning this game outright. Colorado might be the most overrated team in the country. They got a couple of really good players, but they are a complete mess on the offensive line and the defense is still a liability. I also think this is a potential letdown spot for the Buffaloes coming off their big road game against Nebraska last week. Give me Colorado State +7!

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ProSportsPicks

PSP Data Driven 1* Free Pick: Colorado State+7.5 -109

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind.
Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. Colorado are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games. Colorado are 2-16 SU in their last 18 games on the road.