10-23-11

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GOLD SHEET

WASHINGTON by 9
NEW ORLEANS by 25
OVER Pittsburgh-Arizona

GOLD SHEET - CKO
10 SAN DIEGO

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NELLYS

RATING 5 DETROIT (-4½)
RATING 4 KANSAS CITY (+3½)
RATING 3 CLEVELAND (-3)
RATING 2 TENNESSEE (-3)
RATING 1 ST. LOUIS (+10½)
W.G.Con. Min Vikings

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PLATINUM SHEET - STAT FOX

Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
St.Louis Rams
Green Bay Packers

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PLAY BOOK - MARC LAWRENCE

3* Den Broncos
5* At Falcons
4* Ariz Cardinals

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POINTWISE

green bay rating: 2
denver rating: 3
kansas city rating: 4
arizona rating: 5
detroit rating: 5

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POWER PLAY

3* texans 25 (+) titans 23
4* steelers 25 cardinals 14
3* packers 30 vikings 17

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RICH SABER - GAMING TODAY

Ariz Cardinals
GB Packers

MARK MAYER - GAMING TODAY

Bears--Broncos
Boys--Packers

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WINNING POINTS

Best Bets
At.Falcons
NO Saints

Preferred
Ariz Cardinals
Was Redskins

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NFL Betting Picks
Kevin

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers - PANTHERS -2.5 (-113)
(Note: I'm risking 1.13 units to win 1 unit)

As good as the Redskins defense has been, they have just as many trouble scoring. The Redskins came off a bye week to host the Philadelphia Eagles, and managed just one touchdown which came with under 3 minutes to go in the ball game. Grossman threw for 4 interceptions in that game, and the Redskins have decided to go with John Beck under center this week. Beck hasn't started a regular season game since 2007 where he went 0-4 with the Dolphins in his rookie season. The Panthers offense ranks 6th in total yards (428 per game) and they are averaging 22.2 points per game this season. Although the Panthers are just 1-5, they have kept games close going 4-2 ATS. The Panthers covered the spread against the Packers, Bears, and New Orleans. Although the Redskins had an impressive win against the Giants in the season opener, their other two wins have come against Arizona and St Louis. Washington is just 3-9-7 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. As long as the Panthers can establish a running game like they have been in recent weeks, I like Cam Newton to lead this team to their second home win of the season.

Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns - BROWNS -2.5 (-117)
(Note: I'm risking 1.17 units to win 1 unit)

Both the Seahawks and Browns come into this one with a 2-3 record. The Seahawks enjoyed a bye last week after beating the Giants in New York the week prior, while the Browns lost by 7 in Oakland after their bye week. Seattle has beaten Arizona and New York, and has losses to San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. The Browns have beaten Indianapolis and Miami, and has losses to Cincinnati, Tennessee and Oakland. Seahawks QB Tavaris Jackson is out with a pectoral injury, and we will see Charlie Whitehurst under center for the Seahawks. The 29 year old played after Jackson was injured and went 11 for 19 for 149 yards. In 2010 Whitehurst completed 57.6% of his passes with 2 TDs and 3 INTs for a 65.5 QB Rating. Colt McCoy has been OK for the Browns, throwing for 8 TDs and just 3 INTs this season, but will need to better in order to lead this Browns team to some more victories. The Browns will be without CB Joe Haden this week, but their defense has been pretty solid this year - allowing just 321 yards against per game (good for 7th in the NFL). The Seahawks are just 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 road games, and I don't think Charlie Whitehurst can out play Colt McCoy on the road Sunday. Take the Browns -2.5 as they get things done by a Field Goal or more.

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints - SAINTS -13.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 1.10 units to win 1 unit)

A rematch of Super Bowl 44 Sunday Night, but this time the Saints are the favorites. The Peyton Manning-less Colts are winless (0-6) oin the season, while the Saints led by Drew Brees are 4-2. Curtis Painter has done a good job since taking over, completing 55% of his passes for 5 TDs, just 1 INT and a 93 QB Rating, but the Colts defense has provided much help. Indianapolis is averaging 27.2 points against per game this season, and should have a lot of troubles against the Saints who are average 29.5 points per game and 35 points per game at home. The Saints had won 4 straight since an opening night loss to the Packers, before losing 26-20 last Sunday in Tampa Bay. Note that the Saints are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss. Drew Brees is like Tom Brady, taking losses personally and I see a big offensive performance coming from him Sunday Night against a struggling Colts defense. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The loss of Sean Payton on the sideline may affect the team a little bit, but he will still be calling the plays from up top, and I don't see it affecting the play of this Saints team at home. The Colts have only faced one high powered offense this season in the Houston Texans, and were beat badly in a 34-7 loss. Expect a similar outcome Sunday Night as the Saints rebound from their Week 6 loss in big way on prime time.

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Jack Jones

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -8

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Chiefs +6

15* Colts/Saints NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 48

Monday Night
20* Ravens/Jaguars ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -7.5

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REDSHEET:

Ranked 88/89*

NO 37 Indy 13

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RICK NEEDHAM

Packers (-7½) at Vikings Oct 23, 4:05, FOX

The Minnesota Vikings are having a season to forget. After getting off to a miserable 0-4 start and then finally getting off the schneid with a blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals, they were sent back to reality last week with a blowout loss to the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football. And the Vikings finally realized it's time to move on from Donovan McNabb, as they transitioned to Christian Ponder as their quarterback in the fourth quarter. Whether or not Ponder gets his first start against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday is still up in the air at time of print, but either way it's been a disappointing season for the Vikings. Actually ... as I am writing this analysis ... I now hear that McNabb has been informed that he has now been benched for the second season in a row!
And the disappointment is likely to continue on Sunday when the Vikings host the undefeated defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. It will take a mammoth effort, even at home, to upset the Packers. The Vikings are not a confident bunch right now and their quarterback situation is up in the air. It's not that McNabb has been turning the ball over. He has only thrown two interceptions and hasn't lost any fumbles. But he hasn't been able to move the ball effectively, despite having the benefit of arguably the best running back in football in Adrian Peterson. McNabb has just 1,026 passing yards in six games and just four passing touchdowns. Peterson, meanwhile, is doing his thing with 537 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, which makes him the league leader in that category. Percy Harvin and Michael ******* have been the Vikings' top two receiving targets, combining for 49 receptions and 482 receiving yards.

Ponder looked pretty good in his time under center on Sunday for the Vikings. He was 9-of-17 passing for 99 yards and added one run for eight yards. It seems like the Packers haven't lost a game forever. After winning the Super Bowl earlier this year, they've gotten out to an undefeated start at 6-0 and clearly look like the best team in the NFL. It all starts with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who many consider the best QB in the NFL. Rodgers' numbers are ridiculous through six games. He has 2,031 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns and three interceptions, plus another two rushing touchdowns. Rodgers really uses his full arsenal of weapons. The leader of the pack is Greg Jennings, who has 35 receptions for 530 yards and four receiving touchdowns. But Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley and James Jones have all been excellent as well. The Packers passing attack is so dominant they don't even need to run the ball much, but James Starks and Ryan Grant do provide Green Bay with two decent backfield options.

Whether it's McNabb or Ponder, the keys to the game will be the same for the Vikings, because regardless they are unlikely to win the game through their passing game. The keys for the Vikings are to dominate on the ground with Peterson and step up their defense to limit (not completely stop, because that won't happen) the Packers passing attack. That will take some serious pressure on Rodgers and some great coverage by the Vikings secondary. It's unlikely that they will be able to slow down Rodgers, but that's their only chance of winning the game. If Rodgers can pick apart the Vikings secondary and they can slow down Peterson, the Packers will have their way and roll over the Vikings.

The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last five October games, 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 7 games, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five October games, 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog, 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Minnesota.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I usually wouldn't touch this game as it's a division rivarly, but with Minnesota starting a rookie QB in Ponder and how finely tuned the Packers look, there is no other choice but to lay the points with the Pack. I'll TAKE GREEN BAY to both win and cover!

RICK'S "HOT-SPOT" PLAYS

THE UNDER (50.0) COLTS AT SAINTS
THE UNDER (49.0) FALCONS AT LIONS

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BOBBY FELTON

NFL

3 Star CHIEFS +4 1/2
3 Star PANTHERS -2 1/2
3 Star RAMS +12 1/2

NFL Total

BRONCOS/DOLPHINS OVER 42 1/2

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GOODFELLA

2* NFL TEASER GREEN BAY -2 to #413 ATLANTA +10.5
3* NY JETS

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Info Plays

7* Oakland Raiders -3½