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lions/falcons over 46-
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SportsBook Breakers
5-STAR San Diego -1 over NY JETS - Our eyes were just lit up like Christmas trees when this line came out. There isn't much Vegas can do it about it but that is your game. The New York Jets have not played a good football game all year. The final score last week against Miami is simply masking how they played in that game. It a game with short rest for the Jets and coming off a bye for San Diego we love the Chargers here.
The one area of the game where San Diego is not great is run defense, allowing 4.62 yards per carry. You might think that would be to the advantage of New York but the Jets are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since October 15, 2006 between weeks 3 and 9 when facing a team that has allowed at least 4.5 yards per carry.
San Diego hasn't played to their full potential this season, and that includes a 29-24 win in Denver the week before their bye. The Chargers are 10-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since January 20, 2008 after a win where they allowed at least 21 points.
They allowed 2.5 points more than expected to Denver in that game. The Chargers are 9-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) since October 17, 2004 as a dog past week two the week after a win in which their DPA was positive.
San Diego committed two turnovers which kept Denver in that game while the Broncos committed one. The Chargers are 11-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since October 20, 2002 past week two if not more than a five point favorite, after a game as a favorite where they had a negative turnover margin and committed more than one turnover.
Third downs were huge in that game, with San Diego going 8-of-16 and Denver just 2-of-9. The Chargers are 12-0-1 (9.8 ppg) since October 17, 2004 after a game where they weren't favored by 3+ points, if they picked up at least 50% of their third down attempts and rushed for at least 70 yards.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: San Diego 31, NY JETS 13
4.5-STAR CAROLINA -2.5 over Washington - What is going on with this line. When we picked against Carolina last week, we recognized that this was the start of a three-game home stretch where they would start turning productive play into wins. Yet at 2.5 points here, this line is saying a John Beck led Redskins team is better than them? That is flat out wrong and Carolina is going to prove it on the field Sunday.
Carolina did fail to cover that game last week, losing at Detroit, 31-17. The Panthers are 13-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since 2002 in October between 5-8 after a game which they did not cover and weren't a double digit dog. Showing the importance of this trend, the Panthers are 1-13-1 ATS in this situation when coming off a game which they covered.
On the other hand, this has not been a good stretch of games for the Redskins the past several years. The Redskins are 0-10-2 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since 2006 after facing an NFC team in weeks 5-8 last game.
We realize that Washington sits at 3-2 while Carolina is 1-5. The Redskins are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.3 ppg) since November 10, 2002 with at least normal rest within 3 of pick versus any team with fewer wins.
Washington however, struggled mightily last week and lost, 20-13, in a game that wasn't that close against Philadelphia. The Redskins are 0-8 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since September 17, 2006 as a dog when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak.
Rex Grossman went just 9-of-22 in the game before being benched while John Beck was 8-of-15 in relief. The Redskins are 0-13-1 ATS (-5.9 ppg) since December 04, 1994 with a total over 35 the week after a straight up loss at home in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average.
Throwing 37 times, Washington had just 14 runs in the game. The Redskins are 0-7 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since October 15, 2006 the week after in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CAROLINA 31, Washington 17
4.5-STAR Pittsburgh/Arizona Over 42.5 - The Steelers offense hasn't been as explosive as they can be but the weapons are still there. Arizona's defense has been picked apart by the Giants and Vikings the past two weeks, giving up more than 30 points in each game, and with those kind of totals the Steelers alone can get close to this total.
This is third of a middle of four non-divisional games for Arizona, and the Cardinals have struggled in the first two. The Cardinals are 12-0 OU (14.2 ppg) since November 11, 2007 at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.
The last one was a real rough game, as they fell to Minnesota, 34-10, as a 3 point dog. They allowed 10.2 points more than expected in that game. The Cardinals are 12-0-1 OU (12.9 ppg) since December 16, 2007 after a Sunday game where they allowed at least 10 points more than expected.
It was an all around bad game but turnovers particularly hurt them as they committed four. The Cardinals 8-0 OU (9.8 ppg) since December 2004 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points and committed at least four turnovers. Recently, the Cardinals are 8-0 OU (16.6 ppg) since November 2009 after a game where they committed at least three turnovers and their opponent did not commit 3+ turnovers.
Pittsburgh is coming off a defensive struggle in a 17-13 win against Jacksonville. Their passing game struggled to get going, as they were just 12-of-23 on Sunday. The Steelers are 10-0 OU (13.9 ppg) since December 20, 2007 as a favorite the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average.
Jacksonville's passing game was even worse in that game, accounting for just 76 yards. The Steelers are 6-0 OU (14.2 ppg) since November 05, 2006 the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 31, ARIZONA 24
4.5 -STAR Kansas City +6 over OAKLAND - Carson Palmer, are you kidding me? While this trade might help the Raiders in week 14, playing Palmer mere days after his retirement is insane. Although if they go to Kyle Boller, and we are guessing at some point in this game they will have to, it's not all that better of an option. They were able to hold on against Cleveland last week but the Browns were terrible in that game and the Kansas City team has finally started coming around.
Kansas City is coming off their bye but before that, they defeated the Colts, 28-24. The Chiefs are 9-0-1 ATS (4.8 ppg) in October games since October 29, 2000 after a game where they scored at least 28 points and allowed at least 21.
They had to punt six times, and did not record a single sack, but did not settle when they had scoring chances, getting 4 TDs and no FGs. The Chiefs are 9-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) since October 11th, 2009 when they are off a game which wasn't the season opener in which they punted at least six times and recorded fewer than three sacks.
They held the ball for 33:07 in that game and it was a refreshing change for them as on the season they have average just 27:21 time of possession. The Raiders are 0-9 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since December 16, 2000 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date.
Oakland won their last game, 24-17, as a 7-point favorite over Cleveland. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since October 20, 2002 after playing as a TD+ favorite.
Without Jason Campbell for most of that game, they threw for just 178 yards after throwing for 344 and 184 the two weeks prior. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since October 25, 1992 during October at home when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Kansas City 24, OAKLAND 17
4-STAR CLEVELAND -3 over Seattle - Don't let just one week fool you about Seattle's team. They are good at home and terrible on the road. They snuck up on the Giants last game but won't against a Browns team that absolutely needs this win. We think they will get it here.
Seattle was a 9.5-point underdog going into that game against New York and won outright, 36-25. The Seahawks are 0-20 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since September 21, 2003 after a non-Monday night game where they covered by at least 13.5 points.
They scored 19 points more than expected in that game. The Seahawks are 0-17 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since December 1998 vs a non-divisional opponent after a TD+ win in which they scored at least ten points more than expected.
That was the second straight game like that as they scored 10.8 points more than expected the game prior to that in a loss to Atlanta. The Seahawks are 0-13 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since December 07, 2003 on the road when their dps was positive in their last two games.
New York scored 1.5 points less than expected in that game. The Seahawks are 0-12 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since December 18, 2005 after scoring 28+ points and allowing less points than expected.
Even while scoring 36 points, Seattle was just 2-of-4 scoring in touchdowns when getting into the red zone. The Seahawks are 0-12 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since October 2007 after an away game where they failed on at least two red zone attempts.
Seattle is now coming off their bye and it hasn't helped them the way some other teams have. The Seahawks are 0-8 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since October 17, 1999 within 3 of pick the week after their bye.
Cleveland lost their last game, 24-17, in Oakland as a 7-point dog with a total of 44.5. The Browns are 11-0 ATS (5.0 ppg) since December 16, 1990 after they allowed 21+ points with a total of at least 44.5 More recently, the Browns are 9-0 ATS (4.6 ppg) since December 14, 2003 when they lost a game with a total of at least 44.5 last game.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CLEVELAND 24, Seattle 13
4-STAR Atlanta +4.5 over DETROIT - Last week, we saw the blue print to defeating the Lions. Atlanta can take away the big plays and has a team which can control the ball. There has been quite the circus around Detroit this week and we expect it to effect what they do.
Atlanta took care of business at home last week, defeating Carolina, 31-17, as a four-point favorite. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since January 03, 2010 after playing at home as a favorite.
Carolina committed seven penalties for 85 yards in that game, resulting in three Atlanta first downs. The Falcons are 10-0 ATS (+7.3 ppg) since 2004 as a dog when they are off a game in which they were awarded at least three first downs because of an opponent's penalty.
They did a nice job picking up first downs on their own, going 7-of-11 on third down attempts. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) since November 2009 following an away game where they picked up at least 50% of their first downs.
Detroit lost last week, 25-19, to San Francisco at home as a 4.5 point favorite. The Lions are 0-7 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since November 14, 2004 after a straight up loss as a favorite. Also, the Lions are 0-11 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since 2002 if not undefeated, when they were a FG+ favorite last week, as long as they did not win by 14-plus points.
They threw for 244 yards in that game, rushing for 66. The Lions are 0-8 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since November 16, 2003 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards at home as a favorite.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Atlanta 24, DETROIT 23
4-STAR Indianapolis over NEW ORLEANS - This is not the same Colts team from weeks one and two. Indianapolis has been playing better each week and has one lost by more than one score once in the last five weeks and even that was by just 10 points. The Saints aren't as crisp as they could be and we would not trust them to cover such a big spread.
Indianapolis is still winless on the season now after six games. The Saints are 0-11 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since September 11, 1994 as a home favorite when facing a team with no wins after week 1.
New Orleans meanwhile is tied for the NFC South lead at 4-2. They lost last week however, 26-20, to Tampa Bay. The Saints are 0-9-1 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 10, 1999 at home versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up loss on the road.
Trying to play catchup in that game, New Orleans threw for 383 yards after tossing for 326 and 343 the two weeks prior. The Saints are 0-8-1 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since November 04, 2001 as a favorite when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks.
New Orleans has been no stranger to the pass all this year, averaging a league-high 44 attempts per game this year. The Colts are 12-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since November 10, 2002 on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35.
That is part of the reason they are committing 1.83 turnovers per game while forcing just .67. The Colts are 8-0-1 ATS (9.2 ppg) since September 28, 2003 on the road when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least -1 per game, season-to-date.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 28, Indianapolis 21
4-STAR TENNESSEE -3 over Houston - These teams seem pretty even at first glance and that would seemingly make this line make pretty fair. However, Tennessee should be given the bye week bump here. Houston meanwhile, is banged up and last week's game at Baltimore really wore them down. Playing on the road for the second straight week, we think the Titans take the advantage in the AFC South here.
Houston doesn't play well against teams off bye, as we saw just last week against Baltimore. The Texans are 0-8-1 ATS (-4.9 ppg) since October 29, 2006 when their opponent is off their bye.
Baltimore won last week, 29-14, despite the fact that Houston did not turn over the ball once in that game. The Texans are 0-12 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since 2005 when they are off a game in which they committed no turnovers and recorded at least one sack. This trend is 2-0 so far this year alone.
Houston only even got to the red zone once in that game, scoring a TD in that trip. The Texans are 0-6 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since December 17, 2006 after an away game where they scored TDs on all their red zone.
Right now, Tennessee has a half game lead in this race for the AFC South and this win would go a long way towards winning the division. The Titans are 7-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since October 16, 2000 during October when facing a divisional opponent that has a worse record.
On the other side, this is a big turning point game for Houston at 3-3 right now. The Texans are 0-10 ATS (-9.0 ppg) in database history when they are at .500 on the season in the first 14 games of the year when a dog or favorite of no more than one point.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 27, Houston 16
4-STAR Chicago and Tampa Bay Under 44 - This game is the annual NFL matchup in England and that is a big reason for this play. This game tends to be disjointed with it going under in three of the four matchups. These teams are hit or miss offensively and defensively and after big offensive weeks from both teams we see them struggling after the long week of travel and promotion.
Chicago played on Sunday night and picked up a huge 39-10 win over Minnesota. They were only 2.5 point favorites in that game. The Bears are 0-9 OU (-16.3 ppg) since October 11, 1998 as a dog on grass after a straight up win at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em.
Chicago was up huge in that whole game, as they led 16-0 after one quarter and 26-3 at half. The Bears are 0-8 OU (-9.5 ppg) since December 14, 1997 as a dog when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week at home.
They were a solid 2-of-4 on scoring TDs in the red zone and had several big plays coming from outside the 20. The Bears are 0-8-1 OU (-9.1 ppg) since October 2009 on the road in the first 14 weeks of the year after a game where they did not fall on more than two red zone attempts.
Likewise, Tampa Bay picked up a big 26-20 upset win against New Orleans last week. They were 6.5 point dogs in that game. The Buccaneers are 0-10 OU (-7.5 ppg) since 2003 as a favorite when they covered by 10+ points last week but won by less than 34.
A big key to that one was their red zone defense, as they held New Orleans out of the end zone on three red zone attempts. The Buccaneers are 0-12 OU (-10.1 ppg) since 2009 after a game as a dog where they held their opponent out of the end zone on at least two red zone attempts.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Tampa Bay 20, Chicago 17Comment
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Sean Higgs
1pm
4* Bears
Will take the BEARS here. For those of you who didn't notice, this game is being played in England! Both teams with nice wins last week. The Bears doing it on Sunday Night Football, while the Bucs pulled off the upset on the Saints. Will fade Tampa here off that win especially without RB Blount. Bears with a big edge at RB with Forte. Believe it or not, I am a Cutler fan. Give the guy a break already. This OL is brutal and he still stands in there to take his beating. Jolly ol' England will get a Hester sighting or two. 4* CHICAGO BEARS
4* Titans
Will back the TITANS here. I will be the first to tell you that I was writing a near fairy tale season for the Texans when Manning went down for the year. This team is a chronic cinderella, at least to fans of the NFL. Every year is 'the' year. Well, things don't look that bright after all. No WR Andre Johnson still. Mario Williams done for the year. QB Matt Schaub banged up. OL banged up. Just got pasted on the road by a hard-hitting Ravens team. Now they face another hard-nosed, defensive minded team in the Titans. Tennessee feeling refreshed off the bye week. RB Chris Johnson should finally be ready for a big game after holding out. This is the spot vs Texans team on the ropes. Titans 4-1 ATS last 5 here at home, and 7-3 ATS last 10 in the series. 4* TENNESSEE TITANS
4pm
4* Packers
Will take the PACKERS here. Will drink some more of the sucker-juice here with a big road fave. I will throw the jinx right out there right now. GB is NOT going undefeated. But they aren't going down here. Not to MinnyHAHA. Vikes giving the reigns over to rookie QB Christian Ponder. How the mighty have fallen over the last year and a half Donovan McNabb. Hate to see him go out this way. But it will put money in our pockets this afternoon. Listen. The line might be a bit inflated here a point or 2. Vikes got mauled in prime time last week. Still. Who is stopping Aaron Rodgers? They took off the entire 2nd half last week and still won by 3 TDs! GB is undefeated. Last time I checked, the Lions are right on their heels with 1 loss. Like I put in my Cowboys write up. These teams MUST win. There are NO off days in the NFL. GB takes care of losing teams going 11-3-1 ATS last 15 vs teams with losing records. Vikes averaging over 140 rushing yards a game, and are 1-5. That should speak volumes about the problems this team has. Rodgers brings a high scoring group in 33ppg and could easily be at 24 by halftime. Good teams win. Super Bowl teams win convincingly. 4* GB PACKERS
10* Statement Game COWBOYS
Taking the COWBOYS here to get it done at home. Let's be perfect clear here. 14 is a heavy number to lay in the NFL. We know I like dogs. We are big dog guys here. But first and foremost to me in the NFL is .. Pick the Winner. When we have grabbed dogs in the past, they win outright. Exception last week with these same Cowboys, who had that game nearly closed out. Now, does 14 look good. Yea. But I can't see the Rams winning this outright. There are no 'close' wins in the NFL. No feel good games. The Cowboys are 2-3. This is a HUGE game for them with Philly on deck. They ABSOLUTELY can not start to drop a game vs a winless Rams team. Romo has way too many weapons on offense NOT to win this game by 20. Rams scoring a hair under 10ppg. Now they bring in backup AJ Feely to run the show. Rob Ryan has turned up the heat on defense. Ware will get 2 sacks Sunday afternoon. Can't see RB Stephen Jackson or Cadillac Williams exploiting the front 7 of Dallas. Cowboys should sleepwalk to 30 points here. The heat is also on HC Jason Garrett here. He took the foot off the pedal up 27-3 at home to the Lions. Then they blame Romo for tossing a pick for 7. Really. How about we try to make it 34-3 instead of running out the clock with 12 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. He then sports a dress again vs the Patriots. Wow. Let's give Brady the ball at home down a score with 2 minutes left. I don't care if you have the '85 Bears defense, please, for the love of God. Try to WIN the game! Bottomline here. The defense is playing well. They should hound AJ all game long forcing him into a couple of INTs. The offense has the players to get to write their own score. This league is all about passing now. Romo has Witten who is as good as they come. Dez Bryant is a rising star. Wouldn't suprise me to see him break something on special teams. Miles Austin is another threat. Rams have score a grand total of 4 TDs on offense all year! 21 sacks! The Rams give up 161 rushing yards a game. Cowboys can bring back Curvin Richards and get 100 yards. That is how poor this Rams defense has been. Dallas needs to start their playoff push. Time for a Statement Game. 10* DALLAS COWBOYS
830pm
5* New Orleans Saints
Taking the SAINTS here at home. Man, I would never think in my lifetime I would be taking 2 14pt faves in the NFL. But this is just a crazy year. Real simple here. No need to get all long and boring. Saints off terrible loss to Tampa Bay. Brees tossed for almost 400 yards, but had 3 INTs that led to tough loss. Indy defense has been suspect at best. Saints are off 3 straight road games and will love to be home to put on a prime time show for the fans. Colts couldn't stop rookie Andy Dalton. How are they stopping Brees? Saints have yet to have a complete game. Saints in a dogfight in the NFC South and have to take care of business. Nothing like the big stage for a dominate performance. 5* NEW ORLEANS SAINTSComment
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Vegas Runner
2* Early Steam Pitt Over 42
2* Early Steam Falcons +3.5
3* Bookie Bet Vikings +10.5
3* True Steam Green Bay Under 47
3* Teaser of the week Arizona +11 and Kansas City +11 (7 pt teaserComment
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Matt Farrgo
10 bucs
10 vikes
9 kc
9 und colts
8 jets
8 ariz
8 atlComment
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