Saturday 11/2/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Free play from Hollywood Anthony


Your Free Play From Hollywood


MLB Take Buffalo -1

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Arkansas +7.5 -109

The Arkansas Razorbacks have a couple of misleading losses to Oklahoma State and LSU this season that have them flying under the radar right now. They have elite numbers, and they should not be catching 7.5 points at home to Ole Miss Saturday.

Arkansas ranks 7th in total offense at 482.4 yards per game and 21st at 6.8 yards per play. The Razorbacks are 55th in total defense allowing 349.1 yards per game and 61st at 5.4 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 133.3 yards per game and 1.4 yards per play.

The Ole Miss Rebels are just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They needed a 2H comeback to beat a very bad Oklahoma team 26-14 as 19-point home favorites last week. They lost on the road to LSU, and they were upset at home by Kentucky as 15.5-point favorites, which looks worse and worse by the week.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings. Ole Miss can never get margin against Arkansas in this head-to-head series. Arkansas is 6-4 SU in the last 10 meetings with three of those four losses coming by 7 points or less.

The Razorbacks are 8-3 SU in their last 11 home meetings with the Rebels will all three losses coming by 4 points or less, making for an 11-0 system backing the home team pertaining to this 7.5-point spread. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

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Sal Michaels

Free Play on UTSA+7.5 -105

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Alex Smart

Ole Miss could easily be caught looking ahead to a huge battle they have against Georgia next week and in a letdown spot after a physical battle with LSU last time out making them vulnerable vs a upstart Arkansas side that must not be underestimated playing on their home field. Note: Arkansas is 10-1 ATS L/11 in this series and 4-0 ATS L/4.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 17 or more total starters returning are 38-11 ATS since the 2020 season for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas to cover+8 -115

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John Ryan

4 Ohio State vs 3 Penn State
Noon ET | Beaver Stadium, University Park
8-Unit bet on Penn State priced as a 3.5-point underdog. This is a Premium Client Play

Let’s get right into the meat and potatoes of this terrific betting opportunity. With 7 or more games under our belts in the college football season we get better and better results with our 1247 college football algorithms. If a team has gained more yards than their opponents, won the stats, they become exceptional betting opportunities when priced as any size dog including pick-em.

Penn State has won the stats in every game this season. Teams that have won the stats in every game over the first 10 weeks of the season and are ranked and priced as a 3 or greater-point underdog have gone 18-12 ATS for 60% winning bets.

Preview: Ohio State vs. Penn State College Football Game

This Saturday, the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) will face off against the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0) in a highly anticipated Big Ten showdown at Beaver Stadium. This game is crucial for both teams as they vie for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Offensive Leaders:

Will Howard: 1,795 passing yards, 74% completion percentage, 17 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.

Quinshon Judkins: 520 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns.

Emeka Egbuka: 546 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns.

Defensive Strength:

Ohio State ranks 4th in scoring defense, allowing only 11.9 points per game.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Offensive Leaders:

Drew Allar: 1,640 passing yards, 71.3% completion percentage, 12 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.

Nicholas Singleton: 483 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns.

Tyler Warren: 559 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns.

Defensive Strength:

Penn State ranks 8th in scoring defense, allowing only 14.3 points per game.

Looking at my power ratings, OSU would be priced as a 2.5-point favorite on a neutral field. Beaver Stadium with the second largest capacity at 112,000 fans in North America is a very difficult environment for any visitor and the value of home field advantage is 6 points. That makes PSU a 3.5-point home favorite and not a 3.5-point dog. That is 7 points of value and IO do think the wrong team is favored. Further, PSU is 6-2 ATS when playing Ohio State since 2016. When they faced Ohio State dressed as a home underdog they went 3-7 SU, but 7-3 ATS.

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Freddy Wills

Auburn -1 / Illinois +9 2.2% Free teaser

rarely play teasers in college, but two low totals, two home teams. 59-41 Last 100 college football teaser plays.

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Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take (338) Under 55 in Duke Blue Devils @ Miami Hurricanes (12p.m., Saturday, November 2 ABC) We hit the under with Miami last week and we will go to the well again this week. Miami is playing another offensively challenged in Duke, a team that will need to utilize ball control in order to be competitive in this game. That sets up a strong play with the under, and we will not worry if Miami can cover this number and instead just focus on the under. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring a strong play from the Big 10 Conference. Our main office is located in the heart of Big 10 Country and now is the time to jump on board with a handicapper that has 53 years of experience.

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Mike Lundin

GOLDEN GOPHERS/FIGHTING ILLINI FREE PICK

The Minnesota Golden Gophers roll into Champaign, IL on a 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS run.

The Illinois Fighting Illini meanwhile took a 38-9 loss as a 23-point underdog at Oregon last week.

Illinois has won and covered the spread in three consecutive meetings, but Minnesota's defense has vastly improved this season. The Gophers must like their chances of flipping the script, and they have additional motivation looking for one more win to become bowl-eligible while the home team has already managed that feat.

3% FREE PICK ON MINNESOTA-140

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Matt Fargo

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI REBELS-7 for our Saturday Free Play. Arkansas came into the season with a 4.5 O/U win total and it surpassed that with a resounding 58-25 win over Mississippi St. last week and is now one win away from going to a bowl game after missing the postseason a year ago. The Razorbacks had a major upset over Tennessee but they do not have another quality win and prior to the game against Mississippi St., they averaged 15.3 ppg in their previous three games and have been one of the more fortunate teams in the country. They are No. 4 in the Luck Rankings which is a big factor in this matchup as the Rebels are No. 116 in the Luck Rankings and are two possessions away from still being undefeated. This number has moved across the key number twice this week as it opened at 8 and was knocked down to 6.5 late Sunday but has been driven back up to 7.5 and that hook is going to bring in the public action. The Rebels are coming off a less than impressive win over Oklahoma as they trailed 14-10 at halftime but scored the only 16 points in the second half to escape. They are now 6-2 with the two losses against LSU and Kentucky coming by three points each and despite the two defeats, they are very much alive for the CFP with a game against Georgia on deck which will be the clincher whether they get in or not. They have to take care of business here first so there is no chance for a lookahead. Mississippi is ranked No. 7 in Offensive EPA and No. 6 in Defensive EPA, one of only six teams in the country ranked in the top ten in both categories and they sit 28 spots ahead of Arkansas in Net EPA. Arkansas has owned this series based on margin as it has covered 10 of the last 11 meetings and that will be a big sway argument for many but those games are meaningless as far as the present goes. Play (333) Mississippi Rebels

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ASA

#338 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL -20.5 -115 over Duke. Saturday at 12 PM ET - We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this offensively challenged Duke team and this is it. We don’t see anyway they can keep up with Miami in this game. The Canes have the #1 total offense in the nation and they are #1 in YPP as well. This team has scored at least 36 points in every game this season and they are averaging 47 PPG which is also #1 in the nation. Duke’s offense is limited to say the least. They rank 118th in YPP and outside the top 100 in total offense. They also can’t run the ball (117th in rushing offense) which makes them very one dimensional. Not a good recipe for success vs a Miami defense that doesn’t get much publicity but has played very well ranking 14th nationally in total defense allowing 298 YPG. Duke’s defensive stats are very solid, however they’ve played some really poor offenses this season including MTSU (131st in total offense), Northwestern (132nd) and Florida State (106th). The 2 best offenses they’ve faced were Georgia Tech (45th) and UNC (27th) and both of those teams put up over 400 yards on this Blue Devil defense. Now they face a Miami offense that is far better than either of those 2 offensive teams. Both of these teams just played Florida State and the statistical differences were huge. Miami outgained FSU by more than 200 yards and had nearly a +2.0 YPP differential. Miami won by 22 points but led by 29 before FSU scored a TD with 18 seconds left in the game. Duke played host to FSU a week prior and escaped with a 23-16 win despite getting outgained by 111 yards. Duke had just 180 total yards of offense vs FSU but benefitted from 4 FSU turnovers and a pick 6 in that tight win. Duke is not nearly as good as their 6-2 record might indicate and we think they get thumped in this game. Lay it.

[rocky57]

Steve Merril CFB Michigan State +8

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Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Air Force vs Army under 41.5

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Marco D'Angelo CFB Navy -11

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Brandon Lee

1* NCAAF - Vanderbilt/Auburn FREE PICK

PLAY ON: Vanderbilt +7.5 -109

Give me the Commodores as a 7.5-point road dog against Auburn. I know this is going to be a public play on Vandy, but I just think the books are still way off on how good this Commodores team is. Vandy proved they were for real with last week's 3-point loss at Texas. They are 6-2 ATS on the season, with a perfect 5-0 ATS record against Power 4 teams. They have 3 outright wins as a dog of 10+ points! Vandy can put up points. They scored 34 against Va Tech, 27 vs Mizzu, 40 vs Alabama, 20 against Kentucky and 24 vs Texas. Auburn's only two games ALL season where they scored more than 24 were against Alabama A&M and New Mexico. No way should this team be laying over a touchdown against any team in the SEC. Bet Vanderbilt +7.5!

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Mike Williams

1* on Flyers+120