Sunday 11/3/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2024, 07:32 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 3, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a 16-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Always Choose Chip (7/2)-Moved up to this level, and raced well to finish 2nd leaving from the rail. Gets a post edge on other top foes, comes right back and Merriman sticks with the Rhoades entry. Should be in the hunt at the wire.
2-Think Of Galaxies (9/2)-Hunter Myers should be out and rolling when the wings fold. Does best when forwardly placed from the start and that can be the case tonight.
5-Bonitas Best Bet (5/2)-The Burke 2-year-old showed good speed at the Meadows and will be tested here against older. Will respect chances and hopefully won't be bet down.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

5-Big Limo (7/2)-Did get the lead in last after leaving from the 2nd tier but did fade down the lane. Should be in line to get the top without much trouble and could be tough to tackle.
6-Prince Charmer (7/2)-Left from post 8, was parked the mile and still raced evenly. The Burke 3-year-old will need a smooth trip and an aggressive steer. Does get a ++ driver change in Ronnie Wrenn between the pipes and that could be the winning difference.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-The Dragon Queen (5-1)-Will fade #1 the 8/5 choice and take a swing with this 4-year-old mare. Should offer a square price, and with an inside draw needs to be used.
6-Dudes Sweet Bet (6-1)-Drops, after having trouble cashing big checks when facing Open company. Lands in a more comfortable spot and can score at a big price if Chris Lems gets her in striking range.
8-Oh So Smooth (6-1)-This feels like a drop and pop situation. Burke goes with his top call driver Wrenn, and it is doubtful he will be taking back off the gate.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

2-Copacabana Hanover (6-1)-Missed by a neck last time and tonight Billy Davis Jr will steer in his 2nd straight appearance. Will look for another cozy trip and has won at this level. Can win here if the pilot uses his one good move at the right time.
9-Fear Of Moon Light (7/2)-Camera shy filly is often in the mix but doesn't seal the deal on a regular basis. Wrenn has driven in 4 races for the Kash barn, hasn't missed the board and has posted 2 wins. Should benefit from the early speed on the rail. Could take a picture with a smooth trip and the post draw helps the price.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,2,5/5,6/2,6,8/2,9
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2024, 07:33 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #3

#9 Slick	Get a look at her ahead of this, but that overseas debut should set her up for something competitive against a group that doesn't feel like the deepest one we'll see at this level here.
#11 Rio Del Sol	Her debut was OK here in August, but she backed up quickly in that last one and now heads to the turf. Nothing wrong with getting Hernandez up, and it wouldn't be a shock to see her handle the turf.
#6 Lee's Baby Girl	Her inability to punch home in the final yards has been costing her in most of her races, and she's vulnerable to being picked up late by someone again today. Still, she should be in a good spot turning for home against a modest bunch.
Race Summary	Slick seems likely enough to handle these off the useful debut run, and I'm wondering if Rio Del Sol might offer a midrange price to make the exacta appealing.

Del Mar - Race #6

#1 Candy Cruiser	There is probably a bit of upside here in the second career start, and I'm not super impressed with what he's meeting in this spot. Reasonable upside in the second start might be enough.
#6 Whiskyginandbrandy	Something like his two-back run would probably do the trick here, but I wouldn't be too thrilled to land here at a short kind of number with some fairly uninspiring overall form on the page.
#2 Letmein	Take a look on the tote and track ahead of this, but he's bringing a reliable enough series of works to this unveiling and might be able to grab a share.
Race Summary	Candy Cruiser and Whiskyginandbrandy look tough to get past in here, but I'm hoping the former has a bit more upside at a bit better price.

Del Mar - Race #8

#4 Petesoldfashioned	Nothing from him on the turf when racing off the claim last out, but the dirt sprint tries on his page aren't all bad, and he's one of the few in here with anything resembling reliable finishing form. Along late?
#3 Mr. Dreamcycle	Forward player should be in the mix from the start with this crew, and he might offer a touch better price than the 1.10-1 when last seen earlier this year chasing home Midnight Love.
#7 Lettheliquortalk	Speed wouldn't be any surprise, but I feel like he might have a little bit of company that could leave him vulnerable to someone coming alive late to land it.
Race Summary	Petesoldfashioned might have some closing appeal in a race without much of it, and I'm hoping he'll get back to one of the better sprint runs on his page after failing to pick up going long on the turf last out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2024, 07:34 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 5	$2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 4 (races 5-8) $.50 Wheel
Claiming $4,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $8,300 • Post: 8:40P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 3, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. VROYSKY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * VROYSKY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ALFIE SOLOMONS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SILENT TIGER: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. DETROIT CITY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
7	VROYSKY	7/2	4/1
4	ALFIE SOLOMONS	5/2	6/1
3	SILENT TIGER	10/1	8/1
5	DETROIT CITY	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	VROYSKY	7	7/2	Front-runner	77	82	95.4	74.4	67.4
4	ALFIE SOLOMONS	4	5/2	Front-runner	78	70	82.4	69.6	63.6
3	SILENT TIGER	3	10/1	Front-runner	85	82	75.0	65.2	58.2
2	GOTTAGETITBACK	2	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	85	70.6	72.4	62.4
5	DETROIT CITY	5	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	95	92	62.0	73.2	68.2
6	CRACK THE MOON	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	77	58.6	63.8	51.8
1	BLACK CANDY	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	76	57.2	67.4	59.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2024, 07:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe Park
PURCHASE

Arapahoe Park - Race 4	W/P/S/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Allowance • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 2:15P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. MR. STANG is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MR. STANG: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MISTER CHAIRMAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HURTS SO GOOD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
7	MR. STANG	5/1	4/1
2	MISTER CHAIRMAN	5/2	4/1
5	HURTS SO GOOD	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LEAP DAY	1	8/1	Front-runner	83	77	65.0	75.6	65.6
5	HURTS SO GOOD	5	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	88	85	82.1	69.2	62.2
7	MR. STANG	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	96	91	39.8	87.0	84.5
2	MISTER CHAIRMAN	2	5/2	Trailer	93	94	82.0	88.0	85.0
4	POPS AWESOME	4	7/2	Trailer	91	80	58.0	75.4	67.9
3	YATAHEY	3	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	70	64.0	57.8	43.8
6	CRYSTAL BANDIT	6	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	87	70	54.0	67.2	56.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2024, 07:35 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #2 - Post: 12:54pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 42

Rating:

#3 ALLENHURST (ML=9/5)
#1 SHESMYTENDERONI (ML=6/1)

ALLENHURST - Just check out her most recent speed rating, 37. That one looks good in this bunch. Sacco brings her back again. I suggest you stay with this strong filly. I like this filly. Has the uppermost earnings per start in here. SHESMYTENDERONI - Lopez rode this horse for the initial time in the last race and comes right back in today's contest. Taking a big class drop in Equibase class figure points from her October 11th race at Laurel. Based on that data, I will give this horse the advantage.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 TIGER FOREVER (ML=5/2), #7 RISK AND REGRET (ML=3/1), #5 PRETTY GEISHA (ML=8/1),

TIGER FOREVER - Caution must be used since front wraps were new equipment on October 11th. RISK AND REGRET - This come from behinder should have a rough go of it to be along with the lack of pace in this race. PRETTY GEISHA - This less than sharp equine hasn't been coming close at the finish lately. The speed fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this racer as a questionable challenger.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 ALLENHURST to win at post-time odds of 6/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2024, 07:35 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 EXAMINER 5/2
# 1 PERDITION 7/2
# 5 ROCKTILLYOUDROP 2/1

EXAMINER looks respectable to best this field. He ought to be given a chance given the very good speed figs. Garnered a formidable speed figure last time out. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group recently. PERDITION - Natera and Petrowski are a potent pair for profits. Petrowski has him trained solidly to break promptly out of the gate. ROCKTILLYOUDROP - Has performed solidly as of late in sprint races, posting a nifty 77 avg Equibase speed fig. Has ran solidly in dirt sprint races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:19pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $44,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#5 BLACK FURY (ML=7/2)
#2 FATTOUSH (ML=8/1)
#7 NANDO (ML=2/1)

BLACK FURY - Have to make this colt a solid contender; he comes off a nice contest on October 4th. Vasquez rode this animal for the first time in the last race and comes right back in today's contest. This horse earns a lot of money per start. I believe he will add to the lifetime total right here. Dropped in class last time out, and keeps in that lower class level in this event. A good sign this horse is comfortable and ready to go. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. FATTOUSH - The rider and conditioner combination have a beneficial return on investment when they team up. This colt has been posting some excellent workout times. Moubarak is giving this one Lasix for the 1st time. Nice move. NANDO - It looks like Lopez had to know this colt on Oct 4th when riding him for the initial time. Back on board again today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 COLDSTREAM (ML=3/1), #6 IRON TAP (ML=6/1),

COLDSTREAM - Trying to beat this entrant today at the price of 3/1. IRON TAP - The very long layoff will probably be too much for this runner.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #5 BLACK FURY on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,5,7] with [2,5,7] with [2,3,4,5,7] with [2,3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Pleasanton

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 83

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 NOVINOPHOBIA 7/2
# 7 EL GALLITO 9/2
# 3 COME OUT FIGHTING 2/1

I think NOVINOPHOBIA is a strong choice. Rivera's ROI over the last month automatically makes this horse a solid contender. Has run admirably when racing a dirt sprint race. Very good selection to take this race going in a dirt sprint. EL GALLITO - With Espinoza uptop him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out early for this event. COME OUT FIGHTING - Could provide positive dividends based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 75. The speed rating of 79 from his latest race looks competitive in here.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-03-2024, 08:06 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Cumberland Run

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 11
1	1	MOHAWK SEELSTER	2/1	Luna, Marvin - 11	486.45
3	3	MYSTIC MELISSA	3/1	Putnam, Joey - 14	478.72
6	6	CAVIART RICHMOND	9/1	Miller, Andy - 12	426.65
2	2	TAPPED TEEN	9/5	Bobbitt, Geremy - 10	424.98
8	8	STICK WITH CRAMER	12/1	Denson, Jamaal - 9	416.88
5	5	MIKI LEAKS	6/1	Krueger, Matt - 3	412.18
4	4	DANISH DILIGENCE	8/1	Tharps, Devon - 11	356.10
7	7	MRS BIG MILE	10/1	Hill, Marcus - 6	306.29

**ConleyPicks** · 11-03-2024, 08:06 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Leamington Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Post: 3:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 63 - Purse:$5500 - N/W $1500 LAST 3 STARTS OR $2500 LAST 5 STARTS.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 TOSCANO GIRL 8/5
# 4 KILMARTIN DREAMER 7/2
# 1 DUSTYLANE THUNDER 4/1

TOSCANO GIRL has a great shot to take this gathering. Has the makings of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 68 TrackMaster speed fig. She has really strong class ratings, averaging 68. Could be considered for a bet this time. That 59 TrackMaster speed fig clocked in the last race puts this nice horse in the mix in this race. KILMARTIN DREAMER - Loved this mare's last race. Ran a strong 53 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Major player. More than likely think these two have a special working relationship. Duford sending the horse out means a great chance to get the win. DUSTYLANE THUNDER - Seems to have a nice class advantage based on the field of horses she has faced. Could beat this field of starters, just look at the TrackMaster speed fig - 53 - from her most recent showing.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-03-2024, 08:09 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
5	5	MARZANNK HANOVER	7/2	Sorrie, Austin - 17	407.80
4	4	T H JACKIES LEGACY	4/1	Cullen, Travis A - 27	407.70
3	3	FEARLESS SHELIA	2/1	Fillion, Samuel - 15	384.35
2	2	CHOCOLATEFORLUNCH	6/1	Coulter, Scott - 18	378.88
1	1	MISS SOPHIA ROSE	3/1	Ryan, Jason D - 14	374.03
6	6	MISSY ROCKS	9/2	Macdonald, Brett A - 15	367.35
7	7	MY MASERATI	8/1	Henry, Travis J - 17	367.06

**ConleyPicks** · 11-03-2024, 08:10 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 9:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$7000 - N/W $30000.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 CONQUEST SEELSTER 9/5
# 3 GLADIATOR S BG 3/1
# 2 BEACH ROLLER 5/2

Hey, listen up! CONQUEST SEELSTER is the smart bet if you like to win. Not many knocks against this nice horse, let's give him a shot. Has really good speed figs and most definitely has to be considered for a bet in this race. The handicapping group noted a strong effort out of this nice horse last time. Hoping for a repeat effort of that to take the whole enchilada. GLADIATOR S BG - He has been going to post competitively and the TrackMaster speed figs are among the best in the field of starters. Unquestionably the class of the pack with an average rating of 72. A nice selection. BEACH ROLLER - Could clearly better this group of horses given the 66 TrackMaster SR earned in his last contest. Excellent winning rate makes this nice horse an excellent selection to take home the dough.