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Sunday 11/3/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Los Angeles Chargers -1 -115
The Los Angeles Chargers are as healthy as they have been all season right now. They have their full compliment of weapons available on offense for basically the first time all season as both WR Quentin Johnson and TE Hayden Hurst are expected to return this week. There's a chance they get WR DJ Chark back as well.
This Chargers offense is trending in the right direction going to a more pass-heavy scheme the last few weeks. They managed 395 total yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago behind 349 passing yards from Justin Herbert. They put up another 378 total yards on the Saints last week and 279 passing from Herbert.
I expect the Chargers to have plenty of success on offense against the Cleveland Browns, who are becoming decimated by injuries at linebacker. They were already without starting MLB Jordan Hicks, and now they are going to be without WLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (61 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT), who suffered a neck injury against the Ravens last week. He's their most important defender outside of Myles Garrett. Top CB Denzel Ward suffered a concussion last week and is questionable.
The Browns are getting a lot of respect this week because they upset the Baltimore Ravens last week. If Kyle Hamilton had secured an easy INT in the final seconds, that wouldn't have been the case. Now the Browns go from 7.5-point home dogs to the Ravens last week to just 1-point home dogs to the Chargers. Keep in mind the Chargers were 4.5-point favorites on the lookahead line. That's too big of an adjustment.
It was a good matchup for Jameis Winston and the Cleveland passing attack against a suspect Baltimore secondary that was missing two starters in Humphrey and Wiggins. Winston took advantage, but his job will be much tougher this week against a Chargers defense that has been one of the best in the league this season.
The Chargers rank 1st in scoring defense allowing just 13.0 points per game. They are 9th against the pass allowing just 193.4 passing yards per game, including 7th at 6.1 yards per attempt. Winston played a 'clean' game last week against the Ravens thanks to that dropped INT by Hamilton, but there's a reason he can't seem to get on the field anywhere he goes. He turns the ball over too much, and it's safe to say he won't play a clean game this week.
This is a tired Cleveland team playing for a 9th consecutive week. The Chargers already had their bye so they are fresh, which is a big reason they are very healthy this week. I think it's a bad spot for the Browns off the upset win over the Ravens as that makes this a letdown spot now. I trust Harbaugh, Herbert and this LAC defense much more than Stefanski, Winston and this beat up Cleveland defense this week. Bet the Chargers Sunday.
These Two sides Tennessee and New England are two of the bottom three teams in the NFL in yards per play on offense this season, and Im betting on another grinding sleeper here this afternoon.
NFL team like the Titans against the total - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent like the Pats after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 43-13 UNDER since the 2020 season for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Sunday card has the 2024 NFL Total of the Year from a 18-0 totals system headlining the Card with a TOP TIER 1 Side and Sunday night Football. Comp play below
The NFL Comp is on New Orleans-7 -115 at 1 eastern. The Saints have lost the last 6 and have played a killer schedule against Top teams. Now they travel to Carolina to take on the worst team in the league. The Panthers fit a system that is 1-10 to the spread playing against home dogs of 9 or less if they won less than 5 games last season and lost the last game by 10 or more vs a team off a road game. Look for the Saints to get the cover. Rob V-
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