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Sunday 11/10/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 -105
A lot of bettors like to bet on teams who just fired their head coaches. There's a new voice and new energy in the building. No question Dennis Allen was one of the worst head coaches in the NFL, but I don't think the switch to Darren Rizzi is going to make much of a difference in the immediate future.
It would be different if the Saints were healthy, but they are currently one of the most injured teams in the NFL. They are without their top four receivers in Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Bub Means. Derek Carr is going to be throwing to two rookies and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Yikes. He is also going to be taking snaps from a third-string center with Erik McCoy and his backup in Lucas Patrick out.
Defensively, the Saints traded away their best CB in Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders this week, and fellow starting CB Kool-Aid McKinstry is out as well. Backup CB Rico Payton is questionable. This is a very poor New Orleans defense that has allowed at least 26 points in five of their last six games, and the only game they didn't they allowed 23 points to Bryce Young last week, which is awful. They are allowing 30.8 points per game in their last six games.
The Atlanta Falcons just keep rolling along going 5-1 SU in their last six games. Their offense is humming scoring at least 26 points in all five wins, and it should continue to hum this week. You would be hard-pressed to find a healthier team than Atlanta right now. They are fully healthy on offense with WR Drake London expected to play, and they will likely only be missing FB Robert Burns. The Falcons are also fully healthy on defense with LB Troy Andersen expected to return this week after missing the past five games.
This looks very similar to the situation the Broncos were in playing a beat up Saints team when they crushed them 33-10 as 2.5-point road favorites three weeks ago. It also looks similar to when the Falcons won 31-26 at Tampa Bay as 1.5-point favorites two weeks ago against a beat up Bucs team. The Falcons had already beaten the Bucs at home a few weeks earlier and avoided the letdown.
They will avoid the letdown here in the rematch with the Saints as well as Kirk Cousins is one of the best leaders in the NFL, and I trust him to not let it happen. The books haven't adjusted this line up enough for the big advantage the Falcons have in the health department this week. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
Sunday the AFC Total of the Year headlines a Powerful Card that has a TIER 1 Side play on Sunday night Football. in Hoops the NBA Conference Play of the Month is up. NFL Comp play below.
At 1 eastern the NFL Comp play is on Denver plus the 7-8 points. The Broncos are in a nice database system here that plays on road dogs with more rest than their opponent in week 3 or later conference games vs an opponent like KC that went to over time in their last game. These road dogs are 9-3 straight with a 10-1-1 spread record. The Chiefs have played close games this year with 6 of their 8 decided by 7 or fewer points. The Broncos are a better bunch this year then the team that Beat KC by 15 in their last meeting. Denver was lit up by 31 in Baltimore last week and should play much better this week. Take the points with Denver here today. Rob V-
SU:9-3
ATS: 10-1-1
Oct 22, 1995-Sun81995FalconsBuccaneersaway0-714-77-73-024-212.539.035.56.05.750.25WWO0
Jan 18, 200406:50Sun202003PanthersEaglesaway0-07-37-00-014-34.537.01115.5-20.0-2.25-17.75WWU0
Dec 10, 200601:00Sun142006RavensChiefsaway3-03-07-37-720-103.037.01013.0-7.03.0-10.0WWU0
Dec 06, 200901:02Sun132009RaidersSteelersaway3-33-70-021-1427-2414.537.0317.514.015.75-1.75WWO0
Nov 06, 201101:03Sun92011DolphinsChiefsaway7-37-014-03-031-34.540.52832.5-6.513.0-19.5WWU0
Dec 23, 201201:02Sun162012BengalsSteelersaway7-03-70-33-013-103.040.536.0-17.5-5.75-11.75WWU0
Oct 18, 201504:06Sun62015PanthersSeahawksaway0-37-77-1013-327-237.041.0411.09.010.0-1.0WWO0
Jan 03, 201604:25Sun172015ChargersBroncosaway3-73-07-77-1320-2710.042.0-73.05.04.01.0LWO0
Oct 07, 201804:25Sun52018VikingsEaglesaway3-014-33-33-1523-213.548.525.5-4.50.5-5.0WWU0
Nov 17, 201904:05Sun112019CardinalsFortyninersaway9-07-103-77-1926-3610.044.0-100.018.09.09.0LPO0
Jan 30, 202203:00Sun212021BengalsChiefsaway3-77-1411-03-327-247.054.5310.0-3.53.25-6.75WWU1
Dec 10, 202301:00Sun142023ColtsBengalsaway0-714-70-140-614-34344.5-20-173.5-6.7510.25LLO0
Nov 10, 202401:00Sun102024BroncosChiefsaway-----7.542
The Jacksonville Jaguars are now 2-7 SU this season and were outgained by 232 yards by the Eagles last week. They are extremely banged up right now and they are a tired team not having their bye yet. Now the Jaguars will likely be without QB Trevor Lawrence this week and backup Mac Jones is a disaster. They were already without WR Christian Kirk, and fellow WR's Briant Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis are questionable. LG Ezra Cleveland is out. The Vikings already had their bye and are fresh. They played a Thursday night game 2 weeks ago and had extra time to prepare for the Colts last week and won 21-13. This was a more dominant win than the final score showed as the Colts' lone TD came on defense. The Vikings outgained the Colts by 188 yards and became the first team to beat them by more than 6 points this season. The Vikings are fully healthy on offense and fully healthy on defense with only a pair of LB's questionable. They should win this game by a TD or more. The Jags rank 30th in scoring defense and 31st in total defense. The Vikings rank 7th in scoring defense. Give me the Vikings.
I'll lay the 6-points with the Bears at home against the Patriots. Great buy low spot on Chicago, who have lost back-to-back on the road against the Commanders and Cardinals. All 4 of the Bears losses have come on the road. I think they make easy work of this Patriots team. New England is extremely limited offensively. I just don't see them moving the ball with much success against a good Bears defense. Pats are still dealing with a ton of injuries. This will be their second straight on the road after an OT road loss last week at the Titans. I also think you got to take into account the Pats have not had their bye week. Give me the Bears -6!
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