Tuesday 11/12/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #2

#6 Kozy K	He ran to the action when scoring at 8/5 in the debut try, and I think he's drawn well to spy a couple of one-dimensional pace players further inside. Lots to like on the rise to winners.
#3 Trouble In Motown	The form looks competitive if you're willing to toss that last one when trying two turns in stakes company, and he should get a similar kind of run to the top choice while watching everything unfold.
#1 Ronnis Second Wind	Class relief gives him some hope here, but his only lifetime score came on the engine, and I don't think he's going to find the front here without having to work way too hard for it. Not impossible, but I think the race shape might be slightly against him.
Race Summary	Kozy K showed some ability to settle and finish in the debut score, and he looked sharp drawing away that day. Something similar keeps him in the picture today with a perfect pair of targets to track the whole way.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#7 First Kitten	She has run OK here in the past and enters this with a little upside after a couple flat tries at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and I think she'll get an OK trip today in a race without a ton of serious finishing punch.
#6 Datttsafancyfox	She has some upside while going second off the layoff after the dull comeback run, but she was pretty good here last season and might be competitive at a midrange price if she can step forward today.
#1 Aferdita	She's the one to beat here, and it will show again on the tote board. Forward player has some ability to tuck in the pocket if needed, and she really never runs a bad one.
Race Summary	First Kitten might be an OK price with these after a couple dull runs, but she isn't too far removed from some competitive tries with similar types of company.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#8 Vail of Honor	Think he has some appeal today after a flat try marathoning last out, but the runs before that weren't all bad and give him a shot to come alive and get past these late.
#10 Tier One	He has some pretty honest form, and that tracking pace should keep him in a pretty nice spot to stay in touch early. Grinding player is always vulnerable to another one running a bigger race, but he makes sense for another share again.
#5 Who Da Boss	He's bringing good form to this while stretching around two turns, and the dirt route form on his page looks imposing enough against this crew. Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here.
Race Summary	Vail Of Honor might have some claim on this at a decent price, and he wasn't too far off a couple of the other obvious players in here. Capable.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #4

#8 METEOR SHOWER (9-2)	Starts fresh for 20-percent claim barn in evenly-matched field.
#1 CHROME’S BEST COPY (4	Good first gear, willing 3-wide try when she didn’t make lead last out.
#5 INFINITE LOVE (7-2)	Rallied for second in 4 of last 6 starts, the latest at one mile.
Race Summary	There wasn’t much separating most of the contenders when they met at Emerald Downs recently. METEOR SHOWER, the most heavily-bet of the group, rallied into a fast pace to earn minor awards in her last two starts. She’s in top form and can move up for a trainer-jockey duo in the midst of a 14-for-44 run that produced a positive return on investment. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-8 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#2 CHRISTINA’S CANDY (6-	Has some question marks but has the speed to overcome them.
#10 BOHEMIAN JIGGLES (3-1)	Will be running late, left too much work to do it latest start.
#6 MUMBLES BROCKMAN (6-1)	Won at Golden Gate, ran second at Emerald Downs this year.
Race Summary	CHRISTINA’S CANDY, idle seven months since she was claimed for twice this much off a near miss at Turf Paradise, appears an all-or-nothing type. She was scratched at the gate in a scheduled September return at Canterbury Park, but she has the speed to go the distance and is worth a flat win bet at anywhere near her 6-1 morning line. Also play a 2/6,10/ALL trifecta.

Turf Paradise - Race #7

#8 ABRAAJ MIRAGE (10-1)	Fired big one off similar rest, speed makes him dangerous at a big price.
#3 INVARIABLY (5-1)	Rallied in last pair, claimed by Evans, stands 11/2-2-2 at 6F.
#10 FEROCIOUSLY (10-1)	Won at Emerald Downs, then ‘broke slow’ and ‘struggled’ at Fresno.
Race Summary	ABRAAJ MIRAGE earned a huge speed figure in a long sprint at Grants Pass, one start after a voided vet claim. He’s 0-for-12 at Turf Paradise but is a longshot threat in a crowded field that lacks speed. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 9	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 5:18P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BOLSHIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CUPID'S RUNAWAY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. HEALING WATERS: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. RODEO ZONE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. NEUTRON: Horse ranks in t he top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	BOLSHIE	9/5	6/1
5	CUPID'S RUNAWAY	5/2	6/1
1	HEALING WATERS	12/1	7/1
7	RODEO ZONE	4/1	8/1
3	NEUTRON	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	BOLSHIE	6	9/5	Front-runner	86	83	76.0	79.2	74.2
7	RODEO ZONE	7	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	83	83	70.4	74.8	65.8
1	HEALING WATERS	1	12/1	Stalker	86	83	80.8	78.0	72.0
3	NEUTRON	3	6/1	Stalker	84	82	75.0	79.4	72.9
5	CUPID'S RUNAWAY	5	5/2	Stalker	86	86	66.2	80.8	73.8
2	BUCKLE UP	2	10/1	Trailer	82	81	55.4	75.4	63.9
4	DO YA WANNA DANCE	4	8/1	Trailer	92	82	52.2	72.6	63.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Zia Park
PURCHASE

Zia Park - Race 6	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / 1st Leg .50 Pick 5
Claiming $7,500 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $32,000 • Post: 2:25P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 12, 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 12, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. DESERTROSE OFTEXAS is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MARQUIS LIGHTS: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. DESERTROSE OFTEXAS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LINE CALL: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.
9	MARQUIS LIGHTS	6/5	4/1
5	DESERTROSE OFTEXAS	8/1	5/1
1	LINE CALL	9/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	BOSSY BABY	7	6/1	Front-runner	81	68	84.5	61.2	52.2
1	LINE CALL	1	9/2	Front-runner	83	76	77.0	60.7	52.2
9	MARQUIS LIGHTS	9	6/5	Front-runner	83	68	73.3	72.6	70.6
8	INDIAN EXCELLENCE	8	8/1	Stalker	78	66	51.4	56.8	44.8
2	STORMY DAME	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	69	44.8	62.2	50.2
5	DESERTROSE OFTEXAS	5	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	87	71	50.8	66.8	61.8
4	RUN LIKE KATE	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	66	56.8	44.6	27.1
3	I WIN LIKA GIRL	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	61	48.5	55.0	44.0
6	SHELL GAME	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	68	47.6	50.2	38.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 1:26pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#3 MARATHONER (ML=4/1)
#6 PYLON (ML=5/2)


MARATHONER - Look for this one to go straight to the winner's circle at some pretty decent odds today. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the finish line. Taking a big drop in class rating points from his October 25th race at Laurel. Based on that data, I will give this horse the advantage. This horse is number one in earnings per start. Take a good look at this one before the race. PYLON - I do like the fact this gelding is back in a race so quickly. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a racer coming back off a nice race within the last thirty days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SPOTTED BULL (ML=2/1), #4 LOOKIN' SUPER (ML=3/1), #2 ALMOND CIDER (ML=6/1),

SPOTTED BULL - Improbable that this animal will finish better than he did last time out when placing sixth. LOOKIN' SUPER - Morning line odds of 3/1 make this horse a pass by my standards. ALMOND CIDER - This thoroughbred hasn't shown much in the last pair of contests. Tough to put your cash on the win end of any animal that finishes second and third as often as this one does.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #3 MARATHONER on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12100 Class Rating: 62

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 LUBU 6/5
# 3 ELKO 5/2
# 5 FLATTERING HEART 7/2

LUBU is the best wager in this race. Ought to be considered - I like the numbers from the last competition. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. She has been running admirably lately while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. ELKO - Vecchio has this filly racing well and is a formidable choice based on the respectable speed figures garnered in route races lately. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of solid win percentage - 28 percent - at this distance & surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13700 Class Rating: 70

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 B C GLORY DAYS 9/2
# 5 BRENNAN'S WAR 12/1
# 1 WITH KNOW NAME 3/1

B C GLORY DAYS looks to be a decent contender. Rohena will probably be able to get this gelding to break out quickly here. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint events in this lot. Sound average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this racer a definite contender. BRENNAN'S WAR - He must be given a shot given the strong speed numbers. The speed figure of 81 from his last contest looks respectable in here. WITH KNOW NAME - Has to be carefully examined against this group of horses displaying formidable figures recently and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 61 under similar conditions. Put up a formidable speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:50pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,700 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#7 KAY BEE GEE (ML=4/1)
#2 MY ANGELICA (ML=7/2)


KAY BEE GEE - She'll be laying in perfect position, right behind the early pace. MY ANGELICA - This mare has been running at higher class levels previously. She did win versus better, a $7,500 Claiming race though. I believe this one is in the right spot today. Pinzon brings this mare back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his mare is on top of her game.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 GORMLEYESQUE (ML=5/2), #1 LIL BUT DELICIOUS (ML=3/1), #6 MATTY BO (ML=6/1),

GORMLEYESQUE - October 15th is the last time we've seen this filly around. Have to be a little bit leery. Will be tough for this mount to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the questionable challengers list. LIL BUT DELICIOUS - Any speed figure garnered on a track listed as good has to be taken with a grain of salt. MATTY BO - Not probable for this entrant to do much running with no recent good showings in a sprint event. This filly finished out of the money on October 9th and wasn't close last time around the track either.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 KAY BEE GEE to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[rocky57]

Adam Trigger CBB
Navy
Iona
If anyone is interested Adam has a 5% CBB tonight..his plays hardly ever show up on my Consensus Report..
most likely when we get closer to conference play..crushed it last 3 years on top 5% play
wagertalk 5.00 Tuesday

[rocky57]

Steve Merril CFB
Toledo/Central Michigan Under

[rocky57]

Rob Veno NBA
Celtics Team Total Over 1st half

CFB Western Michigan

[rocky57]

Bryan Power CFB Ball State

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: CBB Cleveland St +1.5 over Valparaiso

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U


Tuesday's Free Selection: Phoenix Suns/Utah Jazz under 232