Saturday 12/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-13-2024, 10:20 AM

Scott Shapiro: Fair Grounds Pick 4 Hit & Split Analysis | Sat

December 12, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

Saturday is Louisiana Champions Day at Fair Grounds Race Course. Seven stakes events are scheduled over the 10-race slate, including an all-stakes late Pick 4 sequence over the final four races. Xpressbet and 1/ST BET are adding to the excitement of the big day in New Orleans with a 2 million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion for those able to connect the dots. Just remember as always to register on the promotional landing page.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 7: Louisiana Champions Day Turf
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Who Took the Money
Backups: 8 Brian’s Iron Mike

Forecast: The pace should certainly be honest at the very least in this 1 1/16-mile test over the lawn given the presence of #2 Mi Solution, #3 Behemah Star, #4 Calicoco, and #6 House Bourbon. This bodes well for #5 Who Took the Money. The Allied Racing Stable late runner ran out of room last year as the favorite in this race when finishing second to Behemah Star, but comes out of an open company allowance event where he was 29-1, but put in a solid late run to earn fourth. That was the only time the Street Boss gelding has finished worse than second over this course. He gets some class relief here and a race shape that should make his job easier.

I will also include #8 Brian’s Iron Mike. The son of Iron Fist has only competed over the lawn in 4 of his 28 lifetime starts, but has hit the board in 3 of those. He should get first run on the closers under veteran jockey Ben Curtis. At 10-1 he is far from impossible.

Race 8: Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Sprint
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Six String
Backups: None

Forecast: There is little doubt the Ladies Sprint goes through 4-5-favorite #5 Free Like a Girl. The $5500 purchase has been quite the Louisiana-bred earning over $2M through 45 starts for trainer Chasey Pomier. Pomier has obviously done an amazing job with this mare who merits obvious major respect, but the cutback to a sprint makes swallowing a short price a lot tougher to deal with. I understand including her if you like prices in the other legs, but I am opting to go thin with just #9 Six String. The Star Guitar filly makes her second career start over this racetrack after being in tight on the backstretch in the Caldwell Memorial S. last out. She has won 6 of 10, has plenty of upside still, and moves to an outside draw, which should allow for a much cleaner voyage this time out. The Allen Landry trainee is 5-1 on the line, but hopefully will play even bigger in the horizontals.

Race 9: Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Turf
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10 Boomin’ Belle; 11 Eye of the Pharoah
Backups: None

Forecast: Much like the male’s edition, there should be a contentious first-half mile in this year’s Ladies Turf where #10 Boomin’ Belle is listed as the 5-2-morning line choice in her third start off the claim for Mike Maker. Her previous two tries came against open company full field events in the Midwest, so she should benefit from moving into the state-bred ranks for the initial time. However, the question is whether she will get caught wide into the first turn or get caught up in a potential early tussle. Normally this might be enough to knock me off the chalk, but not in this case. Jockey Jareth Loveberry is one of the more underrated riders in the country, especially on turf and this filly appears to be set for her best third off the bench. Loveberry should be able to angle over and find a comfortable spot just off the early pacesetters. If so, this gal will be tough to deny.

Undefeated #11 Eye of the Pharoah also makes plenty of sense, but draws to the far outside in just the third start of her career. In her first local start for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, the Coteau Grove Farms homebred broke well and relaxed kindly early before spurting away late. She clearly is still learning out there and this is a significant step up, but is tough to leave off after the ability she has displayed through two races.

Race 10: Louisiana Champions Day Sprint
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Geaux Sugar; 11 Jack Hammer
Backups: None

Forecast: #11 Jack Hammer headlines the field in the final stakes race of the afternoon. The son of Jimmy Creed has been on the sidelines since running off the screen on March 2 in the Edward J. Johnston Memorial. He has won 6 of 8 in his career and like his stablemate Who Took the Money, has clearly been prepared with the purpose of returning in this spot. The concern is that he did not exactly run well in his first start off the layoff last season when he finished eighth in a field of nine at odds of 5-2. That said, anything close to his beats these. I will use him along with #2 Geaux Sugar. The 4YO gelding comes off a big upset win last out in the Andrew Ney Memorial and has hit the board in all four starts since being claimed by trainer Keith Bourgeois. If he breaks on top again, perhaps he can make it two in a row under Mitchell Murrill.

Good luck!!

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:33 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #6

#6 Smoken Wicked	Price won't be much, but he's probably supposed to handle this crew after trying a trio of graded stakes tries and running into one of the Breeders' Cup favorites in a couple of those spots. Getting back in with Louisiana-breds after drilling open allowance company last out should be a cozy place to land.
#4 Voila Magic	Tactical type ran well in that tune up for this earlier in the season, and he probably still has some upside with just the two starts under his belt. Brother to Classic chalk Touchuponastar can play here.
#7 Hesper	He needs a big move forward if he's going to land this, but he looked decent scoring in the debut run from off the pace and probably hopes for a decent battle to develop while improving second out.
Race Summary	Smoken Wicked has been in the frame with some much, much better groups than he's going to find here, and he ran well enough going short in stakes company that I don't think this sharper trip will be an issue for him today. Nothing creative -- will rely heavily on him.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#5 Who Took the Money	He was second in this race last year and fits well again in this edition. He's coming out of a decent open turf race won by a guy who was dropping after six consecutive graded stakes tries, so this state-bred crew might be a bit more to his liking. Think he'll get his revenge for last year with a decent race shape waiting for him.
#4 Calicoco	Easy to like this guy's turf form, but I'm concerned by the presence of a couple other potential pace players drawn inside of him. I think he's most likely of that group to hang around late, but that potentially negative race flow is enough to keep him out of the top spot for me.
#10 Sonya Knows Better	Think he's got a sneaky claim on a share of this at a price after a sharp score on the main track last time out -- the turf form on the page is generally pretty OK, and he'd benefit from an honest tempo.
Race Summary	Who Took the Money offers a lot of things to like today -- he's exiting a race that I like a bit, and he goes third off the layoff in one of the main spots he was likely aiming for this winter anyway. Feel like the 3/1 ML offering would be playable.

Fair Grounds - Race #10

#9 Autumns Strong Man	He's going to need a lot of things to work his way to score today -- probably needs his A+ effort and at least a mild misfire or two from a couple of the logical players. That being said, I really want someone who will be in position to get first jump with this group and then hold late threats, and this guy should offer a big price to see if he can emerge as the right player from there.
#4 Good and Stout	Think he might be just a touch light overall at this kind of trip compared to some of these, but he might be just quick enough to avoid getting outrun early while turning back today to the trip at which he scored in last year's Champions Day Juvenile. Sneaky third off the break? Should be on the wider plays.
#3 El Dinero	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing on this guy and his super reliable form, but he's on a streak of shares and could be along too late again today in a spot that doesn't feel like it's on a total pace overload despite being a sprint stakes with a big group lined up.
Race Summary	#11 Jack Hammer is another with a big claim on this one, and he should be in the right spot turning for home, but I think he's going get bet a bit below fair value. Autumns Strong Man and Good and Stout should both offer decent prices and provide a couple options outside of the more logical players on paper.

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:33 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#2 FIRE OF ANATOLIA (7-2)	Earned good speed figure, ran fourth behind faves, drops a level.
#5 DEFINED BOUNDARIES (9-5)	Exits MSW ranks for Team Russell off six-week layoff, one to beat.
#8 SUPERNESS (6-1)	Steadied into turn, some late interest in first start at Parx.
Race Summary	FIRE OF ANATOLIA outran his 64-1 odds first out, racing evenly and wide and finishing fourth in a 12-horse field for a higher claiming price. The favorites finished 1-2-3 and the race timed 1/5 of a second slower than a $12,500/nw2 claimer on the same card. Bet to win and place and play a 2-5-8 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#5 LET’S HAVE A PARTY (8	Hit peak form in the fall, returns for new connections, price attached.
#6 KERNESS K (8-5)	Broke maiden at this level, placed in pair of stakes, will be short price.
#8 LITTLE BIT RISKY (6-1)	Bid to stretch lead at 7F and ran second, same move works well at 6F.
Race Summary	LET’S HAVE A PARTY, out-kicked by the 1-to-2 favorite when last seen three months ago, has found his best stride late in his 2-year-old season. The 8-1 morning-line price offsets the layoff concern. Bet to win and place and play a 5-6 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#3 NO BODY LIKES ME (8-1)	Packed late wallop, won a 7F allowance at CT, live price play.
#2 WOOHOO JACKIE BLUE (7-2)	Proven router is 19/5-2-5 and can top $200k in earnings with win.
#5 SADIE THE GOAT (2-1)	Buried lesser, can handle class rise in current form in third start of cycle.
Race Summary	NO BODY LIKES ME closed with a flourish in two-turn sprints at Charles Town for two runaway victories and a troubled second. She should get an honest pace to rally into and the extra furlong in this one-turn mile should suit her well. Bet to win and place and play 3-2, 3-5, 2-3 and 5-3 exactas.

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:34 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Aqueduct - Race #1 - Post: 11:40am - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $48,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#5 GONE AND FORGOTTEN (ML=4/1)
#8 MY FIRST LOVE (ML=7/2)
#6 LAUGHTER (ML=15/1)

GONE AND FORGOTTEN - When Maragh and Dixon team up on horses the return on investment has been great at +149. It looks like Maragh had to 'know' this mare on November 21st when riding her for the initial time. Back on board again today. Sub-par try in the last race at Aqueduct was due to the off-going (she ended up fourth). Should do much better in this race without the slop. MY FIRST LOVE - Mare finished first her last race here on Nov 21st as a shipper. I think she looks like a winner once again. This mare is obviously on the improve with speed figures of 69, 72, 74 last three out. Have to make this mare a win candidate; she comes off a nice effort on Nov 21st. LAUGHTER - That 81 fig this mare recorded in her last event tells me she's a big time player in today's event. This animal has increased her speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MAGGIE T (ML=9/5), #4 LA BANQUERA (ML=9/2), #7 JACKSON'S DIXIE (ML=6/1),

MAGGIE T - No accomplishments for this mount in a short distance contest over the last sixty days tells me that this filly is in a tough situation This horse hasn't been in the money in either of her last couple of efforts. LA BANQUERA - Can't bet on this questionable contender in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint race of late. JACKSON'S DIXIE - Finished second in her most recent performance with a common speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 GONE AND FORGOTTEN is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6,8] Total Cost: $6

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 14 - Stakes - 2400m on the Turf. Purse: $196900 Class Rating: 113

GRAN PREMIO CARLOS PELLEGRINI - INTERNACIONAL G1 S. - GRADE 1 STAKE, OPEN, 3 YO'S & UP, DIST. 2400 METERS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 MOZO DE BAR (ARG) 15/1
# 20 EL KODIGO (ARG) 3/1
# 18 INTENSE FOR ME (ARG) 5/1

MOZO DE BAR (ARG) supports the bet in here and is a solid value bet given the line at 15/1. This colt obviously likes the distance, going 1 out of 1 in his races lately. EL KODIGO (ARG) - He has been racing strongly as of late while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Must be used in the exotic offerings. INTENSE FOR ME (ARG) - Put up a formidable speed rating last time out. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this horse look solid in this affair.

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:35 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 TRUTH BOMB 5/2
# 6 STONINGTON 9/2
# 9 NOBLE REIGN 20/1

TRUTH BOMB should be supported as the wager in here. Must be carefully examined here on the basis of the numbers in the speed realm alone. Cox has one of the top winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface. Has been travelling solidly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. STONINGTON - Will make a strong showing versus this group. No strangers to the winner's circle, Schultz and Arrieta will most likely have this colt breaking away from the field. NOBLE REIGN - Has run admirably when travelling a dirt route race.

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 7	Exacta/Trifecta (.50 min.)/Superfecta (.10 min.)/Daily Double (Races 7-8) Pick 3 ( Races 7-9)
Allowance • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 104 • Purse: $38,000 • Post: 7:38P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JULY 14, 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $30,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. TAPE TO TAPE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TAPE TO TAPE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SI R STERLING: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HAP HOT: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or a n "L" designation.
7	TAPE TO TAPE	9/5	3/1
6	SIR STERLING	7/2	5/1
1	HAP HOT	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	TAPE TO TAPE	7	9/5	Front-runner	104	99	99.0	102.0	100.0
6	SIR STERLING	6	7/2	Front-runner	102	103	95.6	96.0	88.5
2	DOCTORED DEAL	2	10/1	Front-runner	92	88	88.2	86.8	77.8
1	HAP HOT	1	6/1	Front-runner	100	101	85.0	82.6	74.1
3	HIGHLAND CREEK	3	5/1	Stalker	103	97	63.0	88.9	82.9
4	FRENCH COMPOSER	4	8/1	Stalker	97	92	62.5	83.4	72.9
5	READY TO PURRFORM	5	6/1	Stalker	102	103	0.0	0.0	0.0

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 7	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $48,000 • Post: 3:12P
FOR RESTRICTED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOR MD BRED OR MD SIRED HORSES WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A STATE BRED/STATE SIRED OR STATE CERTIFIED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, OR STARTER AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER ALLOWED 3 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BONDIVA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BONDIVA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ANGEL ART: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfac e.
7	BONDIVA	9/2	3/1
6	ANGEL ART	5/2	9/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	BONDIVA	7	9/2	Front-runner	85	72	86.2	75.4	70.9
4	CLUCK CLUCK	4	15/1	Front-runner	66	59	68.4	52.4	39.4
6	ANGEL ART	6	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	82	80	59.8	69.4	66.4
5	AT FIRST SIGHT	5	8/1	Stalker	75	73	67.8	68.2	58.7
3	SHINE ON MOON	3	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	83	72.8	50.6	43.1
1	FEELIN SO LUCKY	1	7/2	Trailer	84	70	49.6	68.6	60.6
2	HONOR THE TRUTH	2	10/1	Trailer	83	76	12.2	67.8	58.8

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:35 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #9 - Post: 4:21pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#3 HELICITY (ML=6/1)
#4 FREAKY (ML=10/1)

HELICITY - This colt earned a nice speed figure of 90 in his last event. That rating should be good enough to triumph this time around. FREAKY - Taking a drop in class figure points from his Oct 9th race at Keeneland. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. This colt has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Pletcher. Better beware of this angle. The addition of the 'shades' usually means that a trainer wants a campaigner to show more zip or to keep his attention focused.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 VASSIMO (ML=5/2), #1 RAPTURE (ML=3/1), #6 SHOT IN THE DARK (ML=6/1),

VASSIMO - Not a good 'spot' in this race. RAPTURE - 3/1 is just too low of a price to take on this one. SHOT IN THE DARK - This horse ran a disappointing speed figure last time out. He shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's event running that figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HELICITY - Vasquez can give this colt patient handling. Should make a strong late move to win me some dough.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 HELICITY is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:36 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dayton Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
2	2	PENANCE	5/2	Noble, Dan - 26	504.47
6	6	MY GUY WRAPSITUP	12/1	Widger, Sam - 12	474.50
1	1	ROSE RUN XTATIC	9/2	Hanners, Austin - 8	472.71
5	5	FANCY NANCY LOPEZ	15/1	Smith, Tyler - 12	454.70
9	9	GET IN AND GO	6/1	Kauffman, Kayne - 8	453.72
7	7	YOUDOCABO	8/1	Farmer, Wyatt - 8	448.17
3	3	CREATE MYSTIQUE	7/2	Wright, Darrell - 8	431.35
4	4	UNCLE LEON	9/2	Beattie, Jason - 9	421.78
8	8	LA LOLITA	20/1	Sutton, Josh - 9	301.58

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:36 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 6:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$6000 - $7,500 CLAIMING ALLOWANCE SARATOGA

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 MIXED EMOTION 2/1
# 6 SOME HAPPY PACER 3/1
# 3 YAMAKA 4/1

Really keen on the chance of MIXED EMOTION taking down the winner's share here. Many selectors know speed is is such an important factor. This contender has credentials with a 77 average stat. This gelding has been going to post against some of the most competitive company in this bunch in recent times. If performance in the last race is any indicator, this race horse will have a very very good shot in this contest. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. SOME HAPPY PACER - Take a look at this contender's avg speed number of 79 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a formidable wager. The handicapping group noted a bang-up performance out of this entrant last time. Hoping for a repeat effort of that to score. YAMAKA - This standardbred recorded a nice speed fig last time out. Looks in good shape to come right back.

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:36 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine Mohawk Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 10:16 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 95 - Purse:$36000 - PREFERRED.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 FORTIFY 9/2
# 5 JACK PANIC 10/1
# 6 KOLBY TWO STEP 10/1

FORTIFY quite possibly looks to be the contender to beat in this contest. Overall statistics appear great. Can't throw out at this point. Surely the class of the group of animals with an average rating of 93. A nice choice. Had one of the finest TrackMaster speed figs of the race in his last affair. A good idea to use in your bets. JACK PANIC - Overall numbers look very good. Can't throw him out of the picture. Starters win from this post at Woodbine Mohawk Park with better than average regularity, suggesting this excellent play. KOLBY TWO STEP - Comp pace figs say this competition should shape up nicely for this gelding. Looking for a big effort. Post 6 has been winning at a better than expected clip, suggesting very nice probability of success for this race.

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:37 AM

Aqueduct Hotlist - December 14

Dec. 12, 2024

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2^nd race [Clm 10000, 1 mi] – (3) Suspended Campaign comes back from a June layoff and drops to the lowest level of his career after winning two starts back for $12,500. (4) Jolly Miss Jill was a winner last month at this level going the mile distance. (1A) Carbon set the pace last time for $16,000 showing that she might be getting back into top form. (7) She Caught My Eye was claimed for $16,000 at Saratoga and goes at this drop down level for the second time.

6^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (7) Miss Tiramisu (A) was bumped hard at the start, rallied five wide, and finished third. (9) Trulli Magic had a rough trip in her debut at 5-1 and rallied from the back of a big field to miss by just two lengths. (4) Julita will make her first career start showing two recent bullet works for a trainer with a hot barn. (6) Pretty Magical showed a big improvement in her second start.

7^th race [Clm 25000 N2L, 1 mi] – (9) Bold Ambition was claimed from his last three races going back to his win in a $75,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga. Then he was fourth for $50,000 and most recently was second for $25,000. He comes back as a new gelding now. (1) Timeaus and (1A) Six Kings are both win contenders for Linda Rice, although likely only one will go. (3) War Chrome broke his maiden for $30,000 and then tried going two turns for the first and set the pace but faded. (6) Brown Don’t Stop came back from a five month layoff and finished third dropping in for a tag for the first time.

8^th race [NY Stallion Series, 7F] – (2) Sacrosanct won his first three starts by a combined 14 lengths with two NY-bred stakes wins since breaking his maiden at Saratoga. (5) Bold Fortune won his last two races by a total of 18 lengths in a maiden at Aqueduct and then in a stakes at Finger Lakes. (7) Man in France was an impressive debut winner by almost eight lengths and then was fourth in a state-bred stakes. (10) Soontobeking has six top three finishes from seven career races with the last four in NY-bred stakes.

Best bets: Bold Ambition (7^th); Sacrosanct (8^th). Best Value: Suspended Campaign (2^nd); Miss Tiramisu (6^th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 6-8 and includes a New York Stallion Series Stakes ? 4, 6, 7, 9 with 1/1A, 9 with 2, 5 = $16.

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(7)	Miss Tiramisu	A on 11/16	6	Had a rough start and had to race very wide.

**ConleyPicks** · 12-14-2024, 08:37 AM

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - December 14

Dec. 12, 2024

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (5) Lauriston drops into a claimer for the first time and looks best with Irad in the saddle. (10) Summer in Toga is a firster who can be a factor in this group. (3) Await also gets a class drop into a claimer. (4) Bal de Mar returns to turf and seems ready for a nice effort. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-10.

3rd race – (1) Fontana Di Trevi was a distant second last time and gets a positive switch to Gaffalione. (6) Lady Meghan could be a factor in her career debut. (2) Classy Chatterbox showed speed and tired in her debut. Should benefit from that effort. (5) Motown Omi is training sharply for her debut. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-6.

6th race – (4) Julee’s Legacy was a game second last time and should make amends here. (2) Sophia’s Storm may pose a threat in the stretch. (3) Trevess figures to benefit from a return to dirt. (1) Major Pryce got a rest after her winning streak was snapped. Is working well for her return. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-4. Doubles: 1-2-3-4 with 1-7-8-9.

7th race – (8) Gosger is a firster working like he has a bright future. (7) Majorca could be another dangerous first-time starter from Pletcher. (1) Commendatore was second in his debut and looks best of the experienced runners. (9) Ain’t No Disco has late speed and should be closing late. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7-8-9.

11^thrace - (10) Cugino was a rallying second in an Aqueduct stakes and looks best in this spot. (4) Palm Tree was hurt by a wide trip. Should get a better one here. (9) Silent Heart rarely turns in a bad effort and belongs in the exotics. (1) Live High Live Low should appreciate the stretch-out to two turns. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-9-10.

Saturday 12/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 12/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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