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Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 14, 2024
Dec. 12, 2024
Race 6 at Turfway Park | Saturday December 14 | Post Time 8:49 PM Eastern
Prairie Bayou Turfway Park Synthetic Championship Stakes | Purse $250,000 | Three Year Olds and Upward | One Mile and One Sixteenth
Analysis and top contenders:
Two horses stick out here among a solid group of 12, plus two also-eligibles who will run if any of the horses in the main group of 12 should withdraw. Those two are Dresden Row (6) and Paros (9).
Dresden Row (6) is the only three-year-old in the field but it’s the end of the year and that doesn’t matter as he’s nearly four and as mature as the others in the field. Additionally, and more importantly, Dresden Row beat older horses in the Grade 3 Durham Cup Stakes in late September and finished second to older in the Grade 2 Autumn Stkes last month. Both those races were at Woodbine and run on the same Tapeta surface he will run on at Turfway Park, so they are representative of the kind of race he can run here. Perhaps even better still, Dresden Row has NEVER finished worse than third in nine races, winning five, including two at this distance, one of which was the Durham Cup. He cuts back from one mile and one-eighth to the distance of the Durham Cup win as well. Trainer Lorne Richards doesn’t start a lot of horses, just 135 in the past couple of years, but has a very strong record of 29 wins, including a record in all stakes of 5-3-1 from 18 starts. Considering this three-year-old still has improving to do and is proven on the surface and in top company, and that two of his last three efforts yielded strong 110 and 109 Equibase Speed Figures, Dresden Row has a big shot to win this race.
Equally probable to succeed is Paros (9), who has won four of six this year. More importantly, he is two-for-two since joining the Mike Maker barn after being claimed for $40,000 in July, having earned his owner more than that already when winning in strong allowance fields at Saratoga and at Keeneland. The first of the two wins, in September, earned Paros a 111 Equibase Figure on par with the 110 figure Dresden Row earned winning the Durham Cup Stakes the same month. Luis Saez rode Dresden Row for the second of his wins since joining the Maker barn, on October 19, with a 105 figure. Going for his fifth straight win, two before the claim and two since, the only question is whether Paros can run as well on the all-weather as he has on turf. He put that question to rest with a spectacular workout at Turfway Park one week ago, which was the second fastest of 45 at the distance. As such, Paros has a big shot to continue his winning streak and being right there with Dresden Row at the finish.
Hush of a Storm (1) and Wadsworth (7) are both notable and I would not argue with anyone who feels they are strong contenders in the race. Both hail from the high percentage barn of Brad Cox and both have had success at Turfway Park. Hush of a Storm has won four of nine over the track and finished second or third in four other races, while Wadsworth has won two of three at Turfway. Hush of a Storm finished third in this race last year then won two races later at Turfway Park. Dropped into a claiming race this past July, like Paros, Hush of a Storm was a rare claim by Cox for $45,000, winning the Ashley T Cole Stakes two races later to earn back more than the price his new owner paid for him. He enters the race off a fourth-place effort but returns to the surface he loves and gets jockey Machado, who was the leading jockey at Turfway Park during the 2023-2024 season and who is likely to win the riding title once again. Hush of a Storm earned a 102-figure winning the Cole which is not going to be competitive with the top pair here if repeated, but he did earn a 108-figure last year at Turfway which would be competitive if repeated, and he gets the ground saving rail as well.
Wadsworth (7) had been off for a whopping 16 months, from September of last year until five weeks ago. Returning in a very strong allowance field on turf at Churchill Downs, he ran as if he had not been on the bench at all, rallying from third to lead then just beaten a neck on the wire while three lengths clear of the next horse. Before the rest, Wadsworth earned 108 and 111 figures with strong efforts in stakes races and he appears back on track today, as well as has a very strong record with Geroux in the saddle with two wins and three near misses (all by less than a length) in five straight races.
Bets:
Win Bets – Both Dresden Row (6) and Paros (9) can bet to win at 5 to 2 or higher odds.
Exactas: Dresden Row (6) and Paros (9) over Dresden Row (6), Paros (9), Hush of a Storm (1) and Wadsworth (7).
Dec. 12, 2024
Race 6 at Turfway Park | Saturday December 14 | Post Time 8:49 PM Eastern
Prairie Bayou Turfway Park Synthetic Championship Stakes | Purse $250,000 | Three Year Olds and Upward | One Mile and One Sixteenth
Analysis and top contenders:
Two horses stick out here among a solid group of 12, plus two also-eligibles who will run if any of the horses in the main group of 12 should withdraw. Those two are Dresden Row (6) and Paros (9).
Dresden Row (6) is the only three-year-old in the field but it’s the end of the year and that doesn’t matter as he’s nearly four and as mature as the others in the field. Additionally, and more importantly, Dresden Row beat older horses in the Grade 3 Durham Cup Stakes in late September and finished second to older in the Grade 2 Autumn Stkes last month. Both those races were at Woodbine and run on the same Tapeta surface he will run on at Turfway Park, so they are representative of the kind of race he can run here. Perhaps even better still, Dresden Row has NEVER finished worse than third in nine races, winning five, including two at this distance, one of which was the Durham Cup. He cuts back from one mile and one-eighth to the distance of the Durham Cup win as well. Trainer Lorne Richards doesn’t start a lot of horses, just 135 in the past couple of years, but has a very strong record of 29 wins, including a record in all stakes of 5-3-1 from 18 starts. Considering this three-year-old still has improving to do and is proven on the surface and in top company, and that two of his last three efforts yielded strong 110 and 109 Equibase Speed Figures, Dresden Row has a big shot to win this race.
Equally probable to succeed is Paros (9), who has won four of six this year. More importantly, he is two-for-two since joining the Mike Maker barn after being claimed for $40,000 in July, having earned his owner more than that already when winning in strong allowance fields at Saratoga and at Keeneland. The first of the two wins, in September, earned Paros a 111 Equibase Figure on par with the 110 figure Dresden Row earned winning the Durham Cup Stakes the same month. Luis Saez rode Dresden Row for the second of his wins since joining the Maker barn, on October 19, with a 105 figure. Going for his fifth straight win, two before the claim and two since, the only question is whether Paros can run as well on the all-weather as he has on turf. He put that question to rest with a spectacular workout at Turfway Park one week ago, which was the second fastest of 45 at the distance. As such, Paros has a big shot to continue his winning streak and being right there with Dresden Row at the finish.
Hush of a Storm (1) and Wadsworth (7) are both notable and I would not argue with anyone who feels they are strong contenders in the race. Both hail from the high percentage barn of Brad Cox and both have had success at Turfway Park. Hush of a Storm has won four of nine over the track and finished second or third in four other races, while Wadsworth has won two of three at Turfway. Hush of a Storm finished third in this race last year then won two races later at Turfway Park. Dropped into a claiming race this past July, like Paros, Hush of a Storm was a rare claim by Cox for $45,000, winning the Ashley T Cole Stakes two races later to earn back more than the price his new owner paid for him. He enters the race off a fourth-place effort but returns to the surface he loves and gets jockey Machado, who was the leading jockey at Turfway Park during the 2023-2024 season and who is likely to win the riding title once again. Hush of a Storm earned a 102-figure winning the Cole which is not going to be competitive with the top pair here if repeated, but he did earn a 108-figure last year at Turfway which would be competitive if repeated, and he gets the ground saving rail as well.
Wadsworth (7) had been off for a whopping 16 months, from September of last year until five weeks ago. Returning in a very strong allowance field on turf at Churchill Downs, he ran as if he had not been on the bench at all, rallying from third to lead then just beaten a neck on the wire while three lengths clear of the next horse. Before the rest, Wadsworth earned 108 and 111 figures with strong efforts in stakes races and he appears back on track today, as well as has a very strong record with Geroux in the saddle with two wins and three near misses (all by less than a length) in five straight races.
Bets:
Win Bets – Both Dresden Row (6) and Paros (9) can bet to win at 5 to 2 or higher odds.
Exactas: Dresden Row (6) and Paros (9) over Dresden Row (6), Paros (9), Hush of a Storm (1) and Wadsworth (7).
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