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Top 3 for tomorrow from the Prediction Machine:
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Robert Ferringo
3.5-Unit Play. Take #362 Washington (+16.5) over Oregon (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
3.5-Unit Play. Take #344 Wyoming (+19.5) over TCU (2 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #356 Arkansas (-5) over South Carolina (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #364 UCLA (+8.5) over Arizona State (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #321 New Mexico State (+33) over Georgia (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #348 Air Force (-17) over Army (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #402 Tennessee (-21) over Midd Tenn State (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #325 Virginia (-2) over Maryland (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #383 Cincinnati (-3.5) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
NOTE: These are 7-point teasers:
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #368 Wake Forest (+21) over Notre Dame (8 p.m.) AND Take #362 Washington (+23.5) over Oregon (10:30 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #332 Michigan State (-21) over Minnesota (Noon) AND Take
#393 Utah State (+10.5) over Hawaii (11:30 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #365 Washington State (+16.5) over California (6:30 p.m.) AND Take #317 Ball State (+9.5) over Eastern Michigan (Noon)
I also like a NMSU-Air Force teaser.
This Week's Totals:
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.0 LSU at Alabama (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 58.0 Purdue at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)Comment
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NORM HITZGES
*Last week: college 8-14 (though virtually all of you pushed*USC*we had to score it a loss)
* * * * * * * * *pro * * * 3-8 *
* * * * * * * * *total * * 11-22
* * * * * * * * *year-to-date *104-109
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COLLEGE:
Double Play: *Oklahoma State -21 Kansas State
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SINGLE PLAYS:*New Mexico State*+32*Georgia
* * * * * * * * * * * * **Tennessee**-21 *Middle Tennessee
* * * * * * * * * * * * **Washington*+16 1/2*Oregon
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *Air Force -17 Army
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *Arizona -3 1/2*Utah
* * * * * * * * * * * * **Arkansas State*-17*Florida*Atlantic
* * * * * * * * * * * * **Baylor*-2 1/2*Missouri
* * * * * * * * * * * * **Pittsburgh*+3 1/2*Cincinnati
* * * * * * * * * * * * **Oklahoma State*-21*Kansas State
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *SMU -26 Tulane
* * * * * * * * * * * * * LSU +5*Alabama
* * * * * * * * * * * * * Missouri--Baylor Over 73Comment
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Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
HAWAII -3.5 over Utah State: This has not been a good series for the Aggies as they have gone just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and they have been outscored by 21.3 ppg in the 6 games, plus they have lost their last 3 played here by an average o0f 18.3 ppg. The Aggies have a good offense, but it's all on the ground as they rank 6th in rushing (282 ypg), but 103rd in passing (168 ypg). The problem for the Aggies today is that they will be facing a Hawaii defense that is pretty good vs the run, allowing just 108.2 ypg and 3.3 ypc. If the Aggies can't run then it will be very difficult for them to stay close in this game. The Hawaii offense had a rough showing last week, but that doesn't usually happen 2 weeks in a row. Hawaii comes in ranked 38th in total offense 432 ypg) and 31st in scoring (34.2 ppg), but the real power behind this offense is the passing game where they rank 8th, putting up 329 ypg. At home this offense has been real scary as they have put up 45 ppg and 494 ypg, while outscoring their opponents by 23.3 ppg on the Islands. Utah State does have a few statistical edges in this one, but this game is on the Islands and the Aggies really don't play well here. I expect the Rainbows to jump out to a good lead, which will make it hard for the Aggies running game to catch up. Hawaii by 10+ here.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
ALABAMA -4.5 over LSU: The game of the year takes place in early November and not in January this season. The keys to this game will be defense and the running game and the Tide has edges in both. The LSU offense is built around a running game that ranks 31st putting up 191.9 ypg and they also average 4.3 ypc. LSU is a run based offense that takes to the ground in 2 thirds of their plays. The problem for them this week is that they will be facing an amazing Alabama run defense that is allowing just 44.7 ypg and 1.9 ypc. Both numbers are tops in the Nation and they are even stingier at home, allowing just 41.7 ypg on the ground and 1.7 ypc. This is one tough defense that isn't just good vs the run, but they are also ranked 2nd in the nation vs the pass (136 ypg). Last year the Tigers did get 225 yards on the ground vs Bama, but just 20 yards passing in their 24-21 win, but in looking at the numbers above we can see that that won't happen again. The LSU defense is no slouch as they come in ranked 4th overall (251 ypg) and 2nd in points allowed (11.5 ppg), but they have struggled on defense a bit when playing away from home as they have allowed 244 ypg passing and they did allow over 500 yards on the road to a very good West Virginia offense. The Bama offense has been very good this year as they are 23rd overall (458 ypg) and 12th in points scored (39.2 ppg), plus they have a Heisman candidate at RB in Trent Richardson, whose has helped this team to 12th in the nation in rushing with 229 ypg and hey have averaged 5.4 ypc. LSU is 81st in total offense, but a solid 13th in scoring (39.2 ppg) and that is a direct result of them getting a lot of TO's and short fields off the other teams mistakes, but Bama will not make those kind of mistakes. LSU will have to work the whole field in this one and that will not be easy. Bama has the clear cut edge on offense and the edge on defense as well, plus don't forget about the huge homefield edge and the revenge factor. This is all just too much for LSU to overcome as Bama wins this one rather easily. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- As coach of Alabama, Nick Saban is 17-4 ATS following a game in which they gained 6.25 yards per play or better.
3 UNIT PLAYS
OKLAHOMA -13 over Texas A&M: Last year the Sooners were upset by these Aggies 33-19, after Oklahoma had won the previous 3 meetings by an average of 40.3 ppg. Today I look for the Sooners to exact some revenge. The Aggies offense is 7th in the nation overall (520 ypg) and 14th in scoring (39.2 ppg), but it's on the defensive end that will not allow the Aggies to keep this one close. The Aggies are 91st in total defense, allowing 424 ypg, plus they are dead last in the Nation in pass defense, allowing 318 ypg. That worst ranked passing defense gets to face the 2nd ranked passing offense, as Oklahoma comes in putting up 397 ypg through the air, with Landry Jones hitting 66% of his passes with 26 TD's and 9 INT's. Oh this Oklahoma passing game is gonna have a filed day vs the A&M pass defense.Let us also note the fact that Oklahoma has put up 611 ypg and 46.2 ppg. Ryan Tannehill has had a good year, but he will be going up against an Oklahoma defense that will be very fired up to atone for their performance the last time they were on this field (41-38 loss to Texas Tech). The Sooners have allowed 17 or less points in 4 of their last 5 games and they will be able to slow down Texas A&M here. Oklahoma just has too much offense and just enough defense to think that they can't win this one going away. Sooners by 17+ here. KEY TREND--- The Aggies are 2-41 ATS when they lose the game outright on the road.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Oklahoma State/ Knasas State Over 69.5: You want points? This game will have them. Oklahoma State comes in as the 2nd ranked scoring team in the nation at 49.9 ppg and they are 4th in total offense (551 ypg), but that is not the best of their numbers as OSU has put up 56.8 ppg and 615 ypg at home on the year. 56.8. Well that means we just need 14 points from KSU. Ok I don't think OSU will get 57 points in this one, but they will still get a ton of points. KSU played a couple of FCS teams to mstart the year and their defense looked really good in those games, but this defense has really shown some kinks in the armor when taking on FBS foes. KSU is 103rd in passing daefense overall, but when taking on FBS teams they are ranking 113th in passing defense, allowing 300.6 ypg. Now they must take on the 4th ranked passing offense of OSU and a team that passes for 405 ypg at home. I can see weedon and company purtting up some big numbers in this one, so may 57 points is not out of the question. LOL. I don't think we will need that many from OSU as I expect the Wildcats to put up a bunch of points themselves. The KSU offense is just 93rd overall (340 ypg), but a solid 41st in scoring (31.5 ppg). The Jayhawks do have a very good ground game, putting up 209.9 ypg (20th) and that ground game should suck in those LB's and open up some throwing lanes for their struggling pass offense to take advantage of. Now as good as the OSU offense has been , their defense has been just as bad. The Cowboys come in ranked 110th overall (455.6 ypg), 101st vs the pass (270.1 ypg) and 84th vs the run (185.5 ypg), plus they have allowed 26.5 ppg overall and 345 ypg passing and 25 ppg at home this year. Verses this defense I see no reason why KSU can't get 24-28 points. KSU will try to run and eat some clock, but they will most likely have to abandon that game plan once they fall behind by a few scores and I fully expect that to happen. OSU is in a fight for a BCS berth and i'm sure they will go all out to score and score some more and maybe even try and run it up in the end. KSU should be good for 24+ points in this one, while I see no reason why OSU won't get at least 48 of their own points. This game hit's the 70's with ease. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The OU is 18-1 when Oklahoma State is at home after scoring 31+ points in 2 straight games.
2 UNIT PLAYS
PITTSBURGH +3.5 over Cincinnati: Pittsburgh is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 conference games, while Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 conference games. The Panthers have struggled this year going 4-4 overall, but they are 2-1 in the Big East, including 2-0 at home where they have outscored their opponents by 16 ppg. Cincinnati is 6-1 overall and 2-0 in the Big East and they are playing well right now having won 5 in a row after their lone loss at Tennessee. Uconn only neat S. Florida by 3 and outgained them by 12 yards, while Pitt beat that same team by 27 points and outgained them 98 yards. Another red flag for the Bearcats is the fact that they were outgained vs Akron despite winning the game by 45 points. On the year, vs FBS teams, the Bearcats have outgained their opponents by just 40.3 ppg and that really shows that this team has been more lucky than good. Well the luck runs out here as Pitt wins this one outright.
Michigan State/ Minnesota Under 46.5: The Spartans have to be drained heading into this one after facing OSU, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska the last 4 weeks, so I don't expect their offense to be fully up for this one. Their offense does put up 36 ppg at home and the Gophers allow 40.7 ppg on the road, but I don't expect the Spartan's offense to go hog wild in this one. Minnesota does average 18 ppg and 304 ypg overall, but on the road they have put up just 11.3 ppg and 231 ypg, while the Spartans are allowing just 11.6 mppg and 221 ypg at home. At most I see Sparty getting 35 points, while the Gophers will be held to single digits, giving us a good play on the Under.
1 UNIT PLAY
UCLA +8.5 over Arizona State: The Bruins showed a lot of heart in their last game vs the Bears and I feel that will spill over to this one. They are also just 2-2 in the Pac-12, but those 2 losses were to Stanford and Arizona on the road. ASU is just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings and they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10, while UCLA has gone 12-3 ATS at home vs a team with a winning record. Look for UCLA to keep this one close.Comment
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