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Sunday 12/29/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Panthers/Bucs OVER 48 -105
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 10-5 OVER in all games this season, and they have gone for 49 or more combined points in three of their last four games, and nine of their last 12 games overall. The Panthers have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team as well going 11-4 OVER in all games this season.
The Bucs have one of the best offenses in the NFL ranking 5th in scoring offense at 28.5 points per game, 4th in total offense at 389.8 yards per game and 4th at 6.4 yards per play. But they have a very leaky defense that ranks 22nd in scoring at 23.5 points per game, 25th in total defense at 354.3 yards per game and 21st at 5.8 yards per play.
The Carolina Panthers have a revived offense since Bryce Young took back over at quarterback. They just hung 36 points on Arizona last week and hung 27 on the Chiefs during this stretch. They are very healthy on offense right now and get WR Xavier Legette back this week. Adam Thielen has become Young's favorite target since returning from injury, and Chuba Hubbard remains one of the most underrated backs in the league.
But there's nothing to like about this Carolina defense. The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 29.9 points per game and 30th in total defense at 385.9 yards per game. Things have gotten worse on the injury front this week. They will be without their green dot in LB Josey Jewell, their best CB in Jaycee Horn and their starting NB in Chau Smith-Wade. Another three starters are questionable, and that's not even counting all the guys on IR lost for the season.
The Panthers lost 26-23 on a FG in OT to the Bucs in their first meeting and both teams left a lot of points on the board. The Bucs had 445 total yards and the Panthers had 367. Young threw for 298 yards on the Bucs in the loss, and he should have plenty of success again to keep pace with Baker Mayfield in a shootout. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
The NFL Comp play at 1 eastern is on the UNDER 46 Points in the Jets at Buffalo game. The game fits a nice 80% long term week 17 totals system that plays under for road dogs of 7 or more that are off a home dog loss and scored less than 10 points like the Jets if the posted total is less than 50 points. In the series 7 of the last 10 have stayed under. The Bills have allowed 107 points over the last 3 weeks so they will be intent on shoring things up on defense. The Jets offense is 25th in scoring, but their defense is 4th in totals yards allowed and 5th against the pass. Look for this one to stay under. Rob V-
OU:2-8-0
Team: 14.5
Opp:22.4
Dec 29, 2024 01:00Sun172024 Jets Bills away-----1046
The Key: The Carolina Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs. They upset both the Saints and Giants at home, only lost by 3 to KC as 11-point home dogs, lost by 3 in OT to the Bucs as 6.5-point dogs, and lost by 6 at Philadelphia as 14-point dogs. They also upset the Cardinals by 6 as 5.5-point home dogs. So they haven't lost by more than 6 points in any of their last 6 games as underdogs and have played a very difficult schedule during this run. The Bucs have a very bad defense and that's going to make it hard to put away the Panthers by more than one score Sunday. They are also going to be without WR Sterling Shepard, TE Cade Otton and S Antoine Winfield for this one. Take Carolina.
We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Bills are already locked into the playoffs and might not be fully motivated, while the Jets still have plenty of talent and are playing for pride and future contracts. This could be the perfect spot for the Jets to finally play up to their potential.
This is a 1% free pick on the Jets on the spread +10 -105
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