11-6-11

[timbob]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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Dave Tuley (Tuley the Tout)

NFL Regular Season (19-20-2 for a net loss of 2.8 units)

406 Colts +7
407 Buccaneers-Saints UNDER 50
409 Browns +11
411 Jets +1.5
419 Broncos +8
419 Broncos-Raiders UNDER 44locked in Monday and it has since dropped to 43 everywhere and even 42.5 some places
428 Chargers +6
429 Ravens +3 EV

[timbob]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

BILLS -2 vs jets
CHIEFS -4 vs dolphins
49'ERS -4 at redskins
PACKERS -5.5 at chargers
BENGALS +1 at titans
RAMS +3 at cardinals
STEELERS -3 vs ravens (SNF)
EAGLES -9 vs bears (MNF)

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Colin Cowherd

Oakland
Buffalo
Miami
New Orleans
Cincinnati

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Evan Roberts

Yr (14-9-1) LW (1-2)

NYG
Mia
TB

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POINTWISE PHONES:

3* Pitt, NO, Miami, St Louis, Cincy

2* Philly(Monday), Oakland

BEST OF LUCK

[timbob]

Sixth Sense

Just a 1-2 record last week, losing –3.6%. For the season now the record stands at 32-18 64.0% +36.60%.

Also, I will come back on Saturday at Noon central (Earlier time going forward) with a totals update. I may have additional side plays as well.

All side plays are delivered via email and will be sent by 10 p.m. central on Friday evenings.

BEST BETS

YTD 32-18 +36.60%

3% BUFFALO –2
3% SAN FRANCISCO –3.5
3% SEATTLE +11.5
3% CINCINNATI +3 –120 or better or +2.5

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 22.4
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.3
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.4
Yard Per Play (YPPL) 5.5

Atlanta –7 INDIANAPOLIS 44

Indianapolis qualifies in a winless situation, which is 106-55-7 although only 2-5 this year. Numbers favor Atlanta by 6.5 points and predict about 45 points. Atlanta has won just one game by more than seven points this year and that was by 14 at home over Carolina. They are 2-2 on the road with a close win by two over Seattle in the only other game against a team nearly as bad as Indy. Indy has been bad and also plenty banged up this year. They come home after three straight road games and will play only their fourth home game of the year. Indy has allowed at least 23 points in every game this year and while they have struggled to score points, their three highest outputs of 19, 20 and 24 points have all come at home. They have been more competitive at home losing by 3, 4 and 8 points. They also get a little healthier this week as they expect back a couple of offensive lineman and get some help on the defensive line as well as linebacker position. ATLANTA 27 INDIANAPOLIS 23

NEW ORLEANS –8 Tampa Bay 50

Both teams would qualify in situations if this line were seven or less. Numbers favor NO by 10.5 points and predict about 51 points. This has been a closely played game here in NO, where TB has actually won six of the past nine meeting played, including each of the last two years. To be fair, the last two years games haven’t meant a lot to NO from a playoff standpoint as they were played late in the season. But, even when NO has won, they have done so only by four, three and three points. Tough game to call and I don’t like to lean towards a team laying a bunch of points when they can’t stop the run but the numbers do show some value with NO. NEW ORLEANS 30 TAMPA BAY 20

HOUSTON –10.5 Cleveland 41

Houston qualifies in a very strong negative letdown situation, which is 117-41-3. Cleveland also qualifies in my turnover table, which is 430-283-18. Numbers favor Houston by 11.5 points and predict about 39 points. Cleveland has struggled to score points this year, scoring more than 17 points just once when they scored 27 at a bad Indy team. Against the better competition they have lost by 10 to Cincinnati, by seven at Oakland and by 10 at San Francisco last week. The Browns are likely to be playing without Peyton Hillis this week, which leaves them extremely thin at running back. Both teams are likely to be without key personnel in the secondary as well. The situations favoring Cleveland are extremely strong but I’m just not getting enough points to pull the trigger on the Browns. If this number were to go to 13 points, I would consider Cleveland. HOUSTON 24 CLEVELAND 16

BUFFALO –2 NY Jets 44

I don’t have any situations on this game although Buffalo nearly qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation. Numbers favor Buffalo by 6.5 points and predict about 45 points. Buffalo has lost four of the past five games played here between these two. The Bills have been a very competitive team this year with each of their two losses by three points. At home, they have scored at least 31 points in each game. The Jets, on the other hand, are 0-3 on the road against good teams like Oakland, Baltimore and New England and they have allowed at least 30 points in each of those games. The Jets have played over the total in 13 of their 14 road games since last year and allowed 20 or more points in 11 of those 14 games. They also scored at least 24 points in every road game against below average defenses, like Buffalo. Buffalo has played well at home and gone 3-0 against good teams like Oakland, Philadelphia and New England. The Jets aren’t any better than any of those teams. The line is short and the value lies with the Bills. BUFFALO 30 NY JETS 24

KANSAS CITY –4 Miami 40

Miami qualifies in a winless situation, which is 106-55-7 as well as my turnover table, which is 430-283-6. Numbers favor KC by 7.5 points and predict about 38 points. Miami is really struggling on offense as they have not scored more than 17 points since week one, when they scored 24 against NE. KC got off to a bad start this year, losing their first three games and failing to score more than 17 points in any of those games (3 and 7 in two of those games) but have now rattled off four straight wins, in which they have scored at least 22 points in each of those wins. I’ll lean towards Miami because of the situations but there isn’t enough value with this line. It appears Miami will get Thomas back at running back this week to bolster their offense. KANSAS CITY 20 MIAMI 17

San Francisco –3.5 WASHINGTON 37.5

SF qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 502-320-22 and 544-396-23. Numbers favor SF by six points and predict about 37 points. SF has not faced a poor team on the road this year but when they have played sub par competition at home (Seattle and Cleveland) they have won by 16 and 10 points. They have scored at least 20 points in all but one game and allowed no more than 19 points in all but two games this year. The 23 and 27 points they allowed were against the very good offenses of Philadelphia and Dallas. And, then there is Washington, who has lost three in a row and the only good defense they have faced this year was at Dallas, where they struggled to score 16 points. As I mentioned earlier in the year, Washington has played somewhat tough at home since the beginning of last year, either winning or losing seven of their eight home games by four points or less on the negative side and winning two home games by six and three points. This, all despite their issues last year. Their only major loss at home was to Philadelphia. This year they defeated the Giants and Arizona (winning by 14 and 1 point) while losing by seven to those same Eagles. But, this team is really banged up right now, missing their best receiver, running back and quarterback and maybe two offensive lineman. SF is likely without Ray McDonald who has been very good for them on defense but they should have enough to get by a poor Washington team. SAN FRANCISCO 24 WASHINGTON 14

DALLAS –11.5 Seattle 44

Seattle qualifies in a general league wide situation, which is 57-29-1. Numbers favor Dallas by six points and predict about 43 points. Dallas had that long string where they played double digit games decided by four or less points but their last two games have now been decided by 27 points each with identical scores of 34-7. The Cowboys are without Mike ******* in the secondary this week and will also likely be without Lee at linebacker, who has played very well for them. Tarvaris Jackson should get the start again for Seattle this week. Seattle has played pretty well on defense this year and with the mobile Jackson back at quarterback, stands a chance to stay in this game against a banged up Cowboys defense. DALLAS 24 SEATTLE 20

OAKLAND –7 Denver 42.5

Denver qualifies in my turnover table, which is 430-283-18. Numbers favor Oakland by 6.5 points and predict about 46 points. Denver has struggled to score points on the road this year, scoring 14, 23 and 18 points. The 23 points came in a blow out at Green Bay. The 18 points all came in the final three minutes and OT of their game at Miami two weeks ago. Clearly, with Tim Tebow, they are struggling to move the ball at all on offense. Against decent offenses, they have allowed at least 23 points in each game. Oakland, on the other hand, has scored at least 23 points in five of their seven games this year and their last game without Jason Campbell doesn’t really count. They’ve also allowed at least 20 points in six of those seven games and despite having a good year, have only won one game by more than seven points. They have played a very tough schedule, however. Sebastian Janikowski’s status is up in the air and he is a vital piece of the Oakland offense. They will also be without McFadden although Michael Bush is pretty good, but not as explosive as McFadden. I’d love to play Denver here but until I see something different from Tebow, I just can’t play them. There is a chance he plays poorly early on and is replaced by Orton or Quinn, which may then give Denver some added value. OAKLAND 24 DENVER 21

TENNESSEE –3 Cincinnati 41.5

Tennessee qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 89-44-10. Cincinnati qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 502-320-22 and 544-396-23. Numbers favor Cincinnati by three points and predict about 45 points. Cincinnati has been a nice surprise this year and although they don’t have a great offense, they have managed, with the help of their defense and special teams, to score at least 22 points in six of their seven games. The defense, on the other hand, has not allowed more than 20 points in six of those seven games. Tennessee does have a nice win at home over Baltimore this year but their other three wins have come against Denver, Cleveland and Indianapolis. Cincinnati hasn’t exactly played great competition either but they are getting points in this game. Over the last three plus years Cincinnati has played a brutal schedule on the road but when they play teams that are bad teams they have not allowed more than 24 points in any of those games. Knowing they have scored at least 22 points in six of their seven games this year and aren’t likely to allow more than 24 points, gives Cincinnati an excellent shot at the cover in this game. Tennessee did not look impressive at home against the Colts last week and a similar performance will give them a loss this week. I don’t like to play one side or the other when I have situations going both ways but the situation on Cincinnati is very strong and there is value on their side as well. CINCINNATI 24 TENNESSEE 20

ARIZONA –2.5 St Louis 41.5

St. Louis qualifies in a road underdog situation, which plays on bad teams and is 130-61-5. Numbers favor Arizona by 3.5 points and predict about 42 points. But, those numbers assume Kevin Kolb will start and he is not starting. Instead, he is being replaced by a bad John Skelton. I would make this number closer to the 1-2 points with Skelton starting. Arizona lost here last year to the Rams, 19-6 as 3.5 point home underdogs. They have scored at least 20 points in each of their home games this year but now they must do it with Skelton, which will be tough. They have also allowed at least 21 points in six of their seven games, including at least 30 or more points in each of their past four games. The Rams, on the other hand, finally scored more than 16 points for the first time last week when they scored 31 points at home against NO. They have also allowed at least 21 points in six of their seven games but they have played a brutal schedule up to this point. This game, other than maybe their home game against Washington, represents their best chance to get a win. Tough for me to side with either team, knowing just how bad they are, but I have to go with the Rams who have the better quarterback in this game. ST LOUIS 21 ARIZONA 20

NEW ENGLAND –9 NY Giants 51

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Patriots by only 4.5 points and predict about 55 points. If this line were to move down to seven or less, the Patriots would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation. The Giants have scored points this year, having topped at least 25 points in five of their seven games, including 20 or more in each of their last six games. NE has actually scored less and less points in each game this year. They began the season by scoring 38 points at Miami but have scored less each week, scoring only 17 points last week. NY will likely be without WR Hakeem Nicks and RB Ahmad Bradshaw as well as their starting center, David Bass. I don’t have a lot of respect for the Patriots and will lean against them here because of the value but can’t make it a play with all the injuries on the Giants side of the ball. NEW ENGLAND 30 NY GIANTS 27

Green Bay –5.5 SAN DIEGO 51

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor GB by just 1.5 points and predict about 50 points. Packers have scored at least 25 points in each road game this year and you can basically write them down for about 27 points a game. The question then becomes can SD put up enough points to cover the spread. SD has scored at least 20 points in each home game and not allowed more than 17 points in any home game but those games have come against the likes of Minnesota, KC and Miami. The Chargers continue to be banged up on offense and defense as they are still without their best offensive lineman and best defensive player. The value leans towards SD so I will lean that way against a below average GB defense. GREEN BAY 27 SAN DIEGO 24

PITTSBURGH –3 Baltimore 41.5

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 2 points and predict about 42 points. This has been a great series and if you take out the first game played between these two here last year (Roethlisberger was suspended), Pitt has now won five straight between these two here in Pittsburgh. Two of those wins were playoff wins and of the other three wins, two of those wins were by scores of 23-20. Baltimore has scored at least 29 points in five of their seven games this year but have struggled on the road against good defenses, being held to just 13 points at Tennessee and 7 points at Jacksonville a few weeks ago. The defense has played extremely well, having allowed more than 17 points just twice, with one of those games being last week but that was more of short fields and punt returns than the defense playing poorly. Pittsburgh has won four in a row but they haven’t played a lot of great defenses this year. When they have, Pittsburgh has totaled 7 points at Baltimore, 10 points at Houston and 17 at home against Jacksonville. This game should be a great game to watch and I will call for a three point game and let the line decide which way I lean. PITTSBURGH 23 BALTIMORE 20

[timbob]

Mike Francesa -

Yr (14-8) LW (1-2)
NYJ
Pit
KC

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DCI NFL

Season
Straight Up: 77-33 (.700)
ATS: 59-50 (.541)
ATS Vary Units: 322-242 (.571)
Over/Under: 58-54 (.518)
Over/Under Vary Units: 169-147 (.535)

Sunday, November 6, 2011
N.Y. Jets 23, BUFFALO 22
DALLAS 29, Seattle 16
Atlanta 32, INDIANAPOLIS 18
KANSAS CITY 26, Miami 12
San Francisco 26, WASHINGTON 12
HOUSTON 24, Cleveland 12
NEW ORLEANS 26, Tampa Bay 23
OAKLAND 31, Denver 22
Cincinnati 21, TENNESSEE 19
NEW ENGLAND 34, N.Y. Giants 20
ARIZONA 21, St. Louis 20
Green Bay 29, SAN DIEGO 22
PITTSBURGH 22, Baltimore 17

Monday, November 7, 2011
Chicago vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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Today's NFL Picks

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The Steelers look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as a favorite. Pittsburgh is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 6
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (11/2)

Game 405-406: Atlanta at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.222; Indianapolis 121.771
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 13 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7); Under

Game 407-408: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.865; New Orleans 140.290
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 8; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-8); Over

Game 409-410: Cleveland at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.199; Houston 136.126
Dunkel Line: Houston by 9; 38
Vegas Line: Houston by 11; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+11); Under

Game 411-412: NY Jets at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.337; Buffalo 137.524
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1); Over

Game 413-414: Miami at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.618; Kansas City 132.51
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 8; 38
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: San Francisco at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 136.328; Washington 129.263
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7; 43
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 417-418: Seattle at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 124.075; Dallas 138.686
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Dallas by 11 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-11 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Denver at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 125.607; Oakland 132.120
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Oakland by 9; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+9); Over

Game 421-422: Cincinnati at Tennessee (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 130.348; Tennessee 130.191
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3); Over

Game 423-424: St. Louis at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 117.945; Arizona 126.660
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 425-426: NY Giants at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 128.575; New England 143.258
Dunkel Line: New England by 14 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 8 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8 1/2); Over

Game 427-428: Green Bay at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.845; San Diego 134.478
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-5); Under

Game 429-430: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.568; Pittsburgh 140.963
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3); Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (11/2)

Game 431-432: Chicago at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.620; Philadelphia 138.965
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9; 47
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+9); Under

[timbob]

Bookie Battle
Record
24-15-1

58 Bookie Pks (top 4)

Cin Bengals (46)

KC Chiefs (42)

At Falcons (36)

Phil Eagles (42)

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Expert Picks (Consensus pks)
Record
31 -28 -3

Cowboys

Texans

Falcons

Bengals

Phil Eagles

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Gold Sheet
Record
12 -12 -1

Key Releases
N ORLEANS by 18 over T Bay
PITTS by 14 over Balt
OVER N.Y. Jets-Buffalo

Gold Sheet - CKO
Record
14 -12

10* NEW YORK JETS

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Mark Myer - Gaming Today
Record
23 -13 -1

Cowboys
Chargers
Dolphins
Saints

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NELLYS
Record
1=6-3
2=3-6
3=6-3
4=5-2
5=3-4-2

Key Selections

RATING 5 NEW ENGLAND (-9)
RATING 4 CINCINNATI (+3)
RATING 3 ATLANTA (-7)
RATING 2 NEW ORLEANS (-8)
RATING 1 BALTIMORE (+3½)

Add: Miami Dolphins