11-6-11

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Robert Ferrringo

2-Unit Play. Take #411 N.Y. Jets (+2) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

2-Unit Play. Take #417 Seattle (+12) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

2-Unit Play. Take #409 Cleveland (+11) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

2-Unit Play. Take #422 Tennessee (-3) over Cincinnati (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)


2-Unit Play. Take #423 St. Louis (+2) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take #430 Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

This Week's Totals:
3-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 42.0 Cincinnati at Tennessee (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.0 Miami at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 44.0 Seattle at Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 44.0 N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 44.0 Atlanta at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #420 Oakland (-1) over Denver (4 p.m.) AND Take #48 New Orleans (-1) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #413 Miami (+11) over Kansas City (1 p.m.) AND Take 'Under' 49.0 Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #426 New England (-2) over N.Y. Giants (4 p.m.) AND Take #411 N.Y. Jets (+9) over Buffalo (1 p.m.)

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WUNDERDOG
1 OF 8
Game: Atlanta at Indianapolis (Sunday 11/06 1:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Indianapolis +7.5 (-115)

There are now just a pair of teams left that have failed to win a game on the season, and leading the way are the 0-8 Colts. After losing 62-7 a couple of weeks ago, this is the ugliest of the teams this season, especially for the sportsbooks. Despite hanging big numbers on them, Indy continues to lose by a ton each week (they are 2-6 ATS). As a result, you can expect the numbers to remain inflated. The Colts have a chance here because they are facing a team in Atlanta that has surrendered over 5 yards per carry in their last two games. If Indianapolis can get something going on the ground, Curtis Painter has a chance to have an adequate game. If the Colts are in it, Mathis and Freeney become viable on defense. Atlanta is in a good letdown situation here. They are off an emotional upset win over a very good Detroit team and they have New Orleans on deck. The Falcons can't be too excited for this one. Atlanta also plays measurably worse on the road, where they are 1-3 ATS on the
season. I'm not going to sit here and try to make the Colts look good, they are not. What I can do is take a snapshot of history that shows teams like Indy are completely undervalued because no one wants them. Winless teams from Week 9 on in the NFL are a 74% bet ATS and it doesn't get any better than that! So, we'll swallow hard and back the Colts this week.

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Week 9 NFL Trends & Angles
We have now reached Week 9 of the NFL season, and this week features one of the wackiest lines we have seen all season.
The whole world watched the Kansas City Chiefs upset the San Diego Chargers Monday night (that was actually a case of San Diego fumbling the game away, but we digress), putting the Chiefs in a first place tie in the AFC West. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are one of two winless teams in the NFL at 0-7 after blowing a second half lead to the New York Giants.
Now, Kansas City is home vs. Miami this week. The Chiefs are riding a four-game winning streak since an 0-3 start, they beat up on bad teams at home all year last season en route to winning the division, and their only home loss this season came opening week vs. what has turned out to be a good Buffalo team.
And the current line in this contest is Kansas City -4! What the…? Are the oddsmakers giving bettors an early Christmas gift or are they laying a bear-sized trap?
Well…

Play on any single-digit road underdog following a road loss (122-79-5, 60.7% ATS since 2002): This angle makes sense from a contrarian viewpoint because it combines two situations that bettors like to avoid, with one being betting on losing teams and another being teams on road trips. The fact that the team is now a dog usually means that it is inferior, so books are able to pad these lines a bit, and let's face it, finding something that is over 60 percent in 201 decisions in almost 10 years is remarkable. This angle has one play this week, and if you do not know who it is, you are not paying attention. (Miami +4)

Play against any favorite that just defeated a good team and is now facing a bad team (37-24-1, 60.7% ATS since 2002): For the purposes of our Trends & Angles, a good team is defined as a team that has won at least 12 of its previous 18 games while a bad team is defined as a team that has won no more than six of its previous 18 games. This angle is like the very definition of the Letdown Theory, as teams that just put a lot of energy into beating good teams often take a breather when they are favored over a bad team the following week. This angle has turned up three times this season and it is 3-0 ATS. There is one qualifier this week, and surprise, it is Miami +4 at Kansas City.

Play on any road underdog coming off of six or more consecutive straight up losses (78-52-1, 60.0% ATS since 1985): We went all the way back to 1985 to make this sample size as meaningful as possible, and the results are quite good. These are teams that most squares would never bet their hard earned money on but that sharps love, as they are almost always getting added line value. Do we really need to tell you who the only qualifier is this week? (Miami +4)

Play on any team that lost its last game by 20 or more points at home (101-75-2, 57.4% ATS since 2002): Professional teams do not like to get embarrassed, especially at home, and they usually come back strong in their next game. This angle won again in Week 8 with Tennessee covering vs. the Colts after getting blown out at home by Houston the prior week. There are three qualifying plays this week (and no, none of them involve Miami), but unfortunately, two of them are against each other with Denver facing Oakland. That still leaves one play though, the Seattle Seahawks +11½.

Play on any underdog that lost its last game by 28 or more points (77-51-2, 60.2% ATS since 2002): This angle combines the concepts of teams not liking to get embarrassed and bettors not wanting to bet on those teams immediately after those said embarrassments. There is one qualifying play for Week 9, the Denver Broncos +9.

Play on any road favorite coming off of a bye week (35-13-2, 72.9% ATS since 2002): You usually have to be a very good team to be a road favorite, and having an added week of preparation time has made the road chalk great investments over the years. This angle is only 2-2 in 2011, but it gets two chances to bounce back this week with Atlanta -7 at Indianapolis and Green Bay -5½ at San Diego.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (75-47-2, 61.5% ATS since 2008): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on the results of the last three years, they may have over-adjusted the lines especially in this specific case of conference games where the visiting teams are fairly familiar with their next opponents. There are four big qualifiers for this angle this week: Cincinnati +3, Cleveland +10½, Chicago +9 (Monday) and our Trends & Angles Play of the Week, Miami +4

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Chris Bergman, 25-15 season and 2-3 last week

Buff 27 jets 24
SF 19 wash 9
Concur 20 tenn 17
Balt 23 Pitt 23
SD 30 GB 28

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David Chan aka "The Dragon"

8* SEA/DAL un 43.5
8* TB/NO un 51
8* NYJ/ BUF un 44
10* BAL/PIT un 42 "no limit total"
10* NYG/NE un 52.5
8* Tampa +9.5
10* Teaser (7-Saints, 7-Broncos)
10* Chargers "Big Tiger"

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Steve Janus

7* Seahawks / Cowboys Over 44

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Prediction Machine NFL

St. Louis -2 61.7%
KC -4 61.2%
San Diego +5.5 60.4%
Buffalo -1.5 59.9%
Cincy +3 59.6%
SF -3.5 59.6%
Houston -11 58.7%
Denver +8 58.3%


New England -9 56.7%
Atlanta -7 56.1%
Seattle +12 54.2%
Baltimore +3 54.1%
Tampa Bay +8 51.6%


under 43 Dallas 59.3%
over 45 Indy 58.1%

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Cappers Access
Bills -2
49er's -4
Cardinals -3
Steelers -3-

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mike hook gom

san diego + 6

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IGSports Picks

3 Star Pick - NFL Washington Redskins +4 (-110)

3 Star Pick - NFL Indianapolis Colts +7 (-110)

3 Star Pick - NFL San Diego Chargers +6 (-110)

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Steve Janus

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH Houston Texans -10.5

4* NFL WINNER: Packers -5.5

5* SNF ATS ABSOLUTE SMASH Steelers -3

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Kevin Thomas (ksp)

40* NY Jets +1

20* UNDER 40.5 - Miami / Kansas City

30* UNDER 41 - Cleveland / Houston

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Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

HOUSTON -10.5 over Cleveland: Tough spot for cleveland here as they have to travel for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks and take on a Houston team that is dominating on both sides of the ball this year. Houston is the on'y team in the NFL that is in the top 10 in total offense, rush offense pass offense, total defense, rush defense and pass defense and they also have one of the top special teams units as well. Cleveland does have the 5th overall ranked defense, allowing just 299 ypg and they are 2nd vs the pass, allowing just 172 ypg) but they have really only play vs one good QB (Hasselbeck) and they allowed 31 points and 220 yards pasing in that one. This will be by far the best offense they have faced all year, as the Texans come in ranked 7th overall (395 ypg) and 11th in passing (253 ypg), plus 8th in scoring (25.8 ppg). The key for them here will be a stromng running game (4th, 142 ypg), going up againast a weak Cleveland run defense that has allowed 127.3 ypg ( 26th) overall and 144.7 ypg on the road. That Houston running game will really help open some lanes for Schaub and that will make them all the harder to stop here. On the other side of the ball we find a Cleveland offense that is a mess. They will be again with out Hillis and Hardesty and McCoy just doesn't have enough other weapons to make up for their loss. Cleveland has no ground attack right now and teams have been able to tee off on MCoy and pressure him into mistakes. Cleveland is 19th in sacks allowed per game (2.4), while Houston is 13th in getting sacks gained (2.5 spg). The last 3 games have really been bad for Cleveland as they have put up just 11 ppg and 286 ypg, including 90 ypg on the ground. There is no way this Cleveland offense can put enough points on the board to keep this one close. Houston is playing very well right now and can not afford to look past anyone. Look for them to win this one by about 17 points. KEY TRENDS--- Cleveland is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs the AFC, while Houston is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 250 yards or less.

4 UNIT PLAY

Buffalo/ NY Jets Under 44: Boy I think this OU line is a few points to high. The Bills are off a shutout and the Jets defense seems to be rounding into form. The Jet's come in with the 29th ranked offense as they have put up just 300.1 ypg and they are 22nd in passing (207.7 ypg) and 28th in rushing (92.4 ypg). Sanchez has not fared well vs the Bills as he has thrown for just 128 ypg, with 3 TD's and 5 INT's in his career vs Buffalo. The Jets have put up 272 ypg on the ground the last 2 years vs Buffalo, but that won't happen here as their Ground game has been non-existent and they are playing behind an OL that has been mess this year, mostly due to injuries. The Bills defense is nothing special, but they did totally shut down a Washington offense that is better than this Jets offense. The Bills offense has been the surprise of the league this year as they come in ranked 10th overall and 13th in passing, but I don't expect Fitzpatrick to challenge this very good Jet scondary too much. Instead I expect them to use Fred jackson and this strong running game to pound the ball at this Jets defense that is 25th vs the run, allowing 127 ypg. The Jets are 14th in points allowed (21.7 ppg), while the Bills have allowed just 21 ppg (12th). I just see both defenses ruling the day in this one as these teams put up around 37 points here. KEY STAT--- The Last 5 years after a bye week NY Jet games have averaged just 32.2 ppg, including just 28 ppg in their two games off a Bye under Rex Ryan.

2 UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati/ Tennessee Over 41.5: The Titans rushing defense has str***led the last 3 weeks, aloowing 184 ypg and 5.5 ypc and now get to face a Cincy team that gets Cedric Benson back from suspension. That running game will help open some throwing lanes for Dalton and this improving Cincy pass offense. The Bengals have one of the best defenses in the league, but Hasselbeck and company should be able to move the ball on them. The Titan's run game has str***led this year, but their passing game is a solid 14th, putting up 240 ypg. The Bengals have averaged 30 ppg in their last 3, while Tennessee has given up 30 ppg in that same stretch. I do expect a str***ling Teneessee offense (19.9 ppg) to get their share of points as both teams hit the 20+ point mark.

1 UNIT PLAY

San Francisco / Washington Under 37.5: Rex Grossman isn't the answer and niether is Beck and I see this Skins team having problems scoring all year long. Last week they were shutout by a pretty bad Bills defense and they allowed 9 sacks in the game. Now they face a SF team that is 10th in total defense (329 ypg), 1st vs the run (74 ypg) and 1st in points allowed (15.3 ppg). I don't see much coming from this Skins offense. The niners are 31st in passing, but 6th in rsuhing and all that running will eat somre clock. The Giants are 19th in yards per play (5.2), while the Skins are 25th (5.0 ypp), so niether team has many big plays and they will have to work their way down the field with long time consuming drives. I look for around 31 points in this one

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Football Jesus free pick: Baltimore +3.5

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LuckyDaySports

Sunday’s Comp Plays

NFL
New England -9
Pittsburgh -3