Monday 1/13/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#6 Condemnation	Not totally sold that he's going to be able to get over the top right back off that last one, but he has that reliable tracking form that should leave him in another good spot, and this has been a solid type of level for him. Dangerous.
#2 Totellyouthetruth	He's another with some good tactical pace that should keep him in a decent spot throughout, and most of the flat runs on the page have come with better groups. Think it'll be one of these two.
#1 Country Club Bobby	Dropper was in the mix with a step better group last time out, but I worry about him getting a slightly tricky trip from the fence. Classy guy fits.
Race Summary	Condemnation might get the kind of trip to win right back today, and he might offer a slightly better number this time around with a couple logical players likely to take some money toward the fence.

Mahoning Valley - Race #9

#1 Rogue Element	Think he has some appeal in a race that looks to have plenty of pace signed up, and the rail draw should allow him to settle back and wait to make one big run. In the mix at an OK price.
#2 Millard's Smile	He has some versatility in his running style that should help him find an OK spot in behind the quicker players, and he was just competitive with this type last out.
#9 Smash	He has some dangerous speed, but so do a couple others in here, and that might not be the best place to land in this one. Not impossible that he runs them all away, but think it's a finisher to seal the deal here.
Race Summary	Rogue Element is a decent fit here by proxy with those common past races with Millard's Smile, and I think 'Element should get a pretty cozy trip from the fence today.

Mahoning Valley - Race #10

#2 Heavylikeachevy	He has given away ground late in his first two starts -- never my favorite angle -- but I'm not sure there is anyone like that last winner lined up in here today, and his pace should make him tough.
#7 Bright Charger	He's starting to run a bit short on excuses, but he has been knocking on the door recently and now tries the local crew for the first time. Things to like.
#6 Hightemp	Think there is enough decent form in here to make this a tough spot for a debuter to score, but I'm curious enough to get a look at this one ahead of this and think about having him on the tickets.
Race Summary	Heavylikeachevy should be forcing the issue right from the start again today, and he could graduate today if he can avoid taking too much early heat from the guy drawn widest of all.

[ConleyPicks]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #1

#3 POVERTY BAY (4-1)	Earned nearly half of $100k bankroll at TuP, can build on it off solid return run.
#5 GOOD BYE CHARLIE (9-2)	Traded stretch bumps with 3-to-5 winner in ‘tenacious’ setback.
#6 ANNIE’S BOY (7-2)	Classy, lightly-raced 8yo has good zip but last won in 2022 in a 4-horse field.
Race Summary	POVERTY BAY bid 4-wide at the quarter pole but settled for third behind the 2-1 winner and 8-5 runner-up at 5-1/2F. The same type of move can lead to the winners’ circle in his first try at 4-1/2F and second start since September. Bet to win and place and play a 50-cent Pick 3 with numbers 3, 5/1, 4, 8/1.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#1 ECHO CANYON (3-1)	Can reward loyal backers with first turf win in second start off Diodoro claim.
#5 WITHOUT EQUAL (6-1)	Had no equal in main-track romp at this distance, earning his top speed fig.
#8 ORTH (4-1)	'‘Echo’s’ new stablemate changed tactics, led clear, held third at 7-1/2F.
Race Summary	ECHO CANYON was passed by the second favorite at 7-1/2F as the odds-on choice on his return to the turf last out. But he should be well-suited to today’s one-mile distance in a field that is a combined 5-for-61 on the lawn. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-8 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#1 ULTIMATE (3-1)	In good form, well-spotted by sharp barn, today’s Best Bet.
#7 RHODESIA (8-1)	Steady check-getter gets class relief for third start of a cycle after troubled trip.
#5 DEFENSE WINS (15-1)	‘Willing’ finish behind winning pace-setting favorite, knows how to win.
Race Summary	ULTIMATE ran third in a pair of fast sprints and crowded fields for higher claiming tags in December. He rallied to a brief stretch lead two starts ago and rallied 6-wide from post 10 in his latest try. If he wins today, he will remain eligible for the same condition next week. Bet to win and place and play a 1/5, 7/ ALL trifecta.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #9 - Post: 3:59pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,600 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#7 KADESH (ML=8/1)
#9 SMASH (ML=4/1)
#2 MILLARD'S SMILE (ML=5/1)


KADESH - TrackMaster keeps good stats on this type of information. This gelding always seems to perform well after a vacation. This horse has shown the ability to win at multiple tracks. Making the move from Thistledown for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run. SMASH - You have to like that recent race speed rating, 90, which is the top most recent race figure of this field. MILLARD'S SMILE - You'll be generating profits right and left by turning your betting money onto this jockey/handler combination. Recent speed figures show dominant pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SOUPER FORTUNE (ML=7/2), #4 PEPPER PIKE (ML=9/2), #3 ONLY GET'N BETTER (ML=6/1),

SOUPER FORTUNE - This steed hasn't been on the track since December 17th. Not even any works. PEPPER PIKE - Have to be particularly concerned about the recent trend and awesome speed figure in the Dec 12th contest. It was this gelding's top at that distance and this one should bounce today. ONLY GET'N BETTER - You always figure that this equine has a shot to win, but he falters most of the time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 KADESH is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 6	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 6 - 9) / Exacta 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $40,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 103 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 1:53P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 13 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED), OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. ALLOWED 0 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $30,000 3 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CELESTIAL MOON: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfa ce. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CHELONIAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ELOQUIST: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster P ower Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	CELESTIAL MOON	5/2	5/1
6	CHELONIAN	4/1	5/1
4	ELOQUIST	3/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	SUERTE	5	5/1	Front-runner	97	92	85.0	83.6	75.1
3	JAMIE DREAMS	3	9/2	Front-runner	99	101	70.0	84.8	76.3
2	CELESTIAL MOON	2	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	107	96	85.6	94.6	89.1
4	ELOQUIST	4	3/1	Stalker	104	100	72.8	94.4	90.9
6	CHELONIAN	6	4/1	Stalker	101	105	67.8	100.0	95.5
1	EPIC LUCK	1	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	91	71.4	84.0	73.0

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $14500 Class Rating: 81

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 OUR BOY ROY 5/1
# 8 ORTH 4/1
# 9 STREET HUMOR 5/1

OUR BOY ROY looks solid to best this field. ORTH - With Hughes on top him, this gelding ought to be able to break out early for this event. He has competitive class ratings, averaging 92, and has to be given a shot in this race. STREET HUMOR - Strong average Equibase Speed Figures in turf route races make this racer a solid choice. This equine has some longshot handicapping angles going for him.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15400 Class Rating: 86

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 THIS ONE CAN RUN 7/2
# 3 BIG GINGER 5/1
# 6 THINK BLUE 4/1

THIS ONE CAN RUN looks to be a strong contender. BIG GINGER - Should best this group of animals here, showing solid figures of late. She has very good class ratings, averaging 79, and has to be considered in this contest. THINK BLUE - The speed figure of 78 from her most recent affair looks respectable in here. With a sound 67 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 6	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 6-7) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 2:56P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 13, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 13 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $3,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY) (THIS RACE ALSO TAKEN FOR FILLIES AND MARES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * OCTANE (BRZ): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint an d this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SPRINKLES: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DISTINCTIVE DEB: Today is a sprint and this is the hors e's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
10	OCTANE (BRZ)	5/1	7/2
8	SPRINKLES	4/1	6/1
2	DISTINCTIVE DEB	3/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	SQUARE FUN	6	8/1	Front-runner	79	71	88.2	65.2	51.2
4	HEY BARMAID	4	6/1	Front-runner	79	67	84.4	56.6	41.1
5	MISCHIEVOUS EMMA	5	20/1	Front-runner	66	58	64.0	58.6	44.1
11	UNIFIED A. P.	11	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	73	77	69.2	58.6	48.1
2	DISTINCTIVE DEB	2	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	82	72	51.2	72.4	64.9
10	OCTANE (BRZ)	10	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	93	93	81.8	71.4	63.4
1	MISS ACCELERATE	1	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	66	60.4	62.8	47.8
9	DANSMETOTHENDOFLOV	9	12/1	Trailer	76	67	61.6	63.8	56.3
8	SPRINKLES	8	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	82	72	57.3	70.0	62.5
3	MAMALONA	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	79	64.0	53.0	36.0
7	MO CONNELLY	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	74	62.8	60.4	47.4

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Parx Racing - Race #9 - Post: 3:14pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#3 I DON'T SEE COLORS (ML=9/2)
#1 SOZE (ML=8/1)


I DON'T SEE COLORS - Likes to go to the front and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be beneficial. I just may give this one a chance. Should improve off last race where he did run off the board, but was within 5 lengths at the finish line. SOZE - Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should profit from today's shorter trip. You probably want to throw out that last clash at Parx Racing on a sloppy track where he finished out of the money. Should do well in this event on a fast track. The addition of the 'hood' should keep his mind on business today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 HARP'S HOT CORNER (ML=9/5), #4 CAPITAL CONQUEST (ML=4/1), #6 ALL AMERICAN ROD (ML=5/1),

HARP'S HOT CORNER - Tough to put your money on this speed merchant. Too much early speed in the race. CAPITAL CONQUEST - You always think this equine has a shot to win, but he fails most every time. ALL AMERICAN ROD - This gelding hasn't had any positive efforts in sprint races in the last sixty days.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #3 I DON'T SEE COLORS on the win end if we get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dover Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
3	3	LOVENBURY	5/2	Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 16	464.92
9	9	ROCK SOLID BET	12/1	Beyer, Troy - 10	454.43
8	8	SIR LLOYD	10/1	Davis, Allan - 14	442.57
2	2	CHECK ON ME	7/2	Green, Jason - 6	441.34
1	1	BGOING AWAY	12/1	Callahan, Corey - 17	420.87
7	7	SHOCKING TRUTH	8/1	Dennis, Eddie - 8	419.05
6	6	BEELZEBUB	9/2	Lynch, Jason - 9	412.43
4	4	USUAL SUSPECT	15/1	Kirby, Victor - 8	401.88
5	5	ALWAYSCUTTINSCHOOL	6/1	Wolfenden, Ross - 7	393.31

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 14 - Post: 8:46 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$17000 - CONDITION CLAIMER N/W 6

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 JAY SEASIDE 2/1
# 2 NOBLE DALE 7/2
# 6 KDK SURFS UP 12/1

The consensus in here is that JAY SEASIDE is the one to beat. With this driver-conditioner hooking up, players often make money. Return on investment is really good with this duo. Starters win from this post at Miami Valley with better than average regularity, suggesting this solid wager. NOBLE DALE - Feel the need for speed, this nice horse has been turning in some stellar TrackMaster speed figs averaging around 88. Been running with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 84). KDK SURFS UP - Looks like a strong selection in this field and his successful winning percentage says he has the desire to win in this contest. Moore has a fine animal going up in class in this event. Looks like the winning move.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 6
4	4	MY LITTLE BEE	10/1	Hartnett, Hillary - 19	407.42
5	5	MEETMEINTHEHALLWAY	3/1	Dibenedetto, Kyle - 11	385.50
2	2	GOLD MEDAL SWAN	4/1	Taggart, Jim Jr - 15	385.31
3	3	REECE N TEDDY	5/2	Sowers, Mcgwire - 13	382.74
7	7	SO LONG HANOVER	7/2	Aldrich, Bruce Jr - 14	367.04
1	1	HOWDOYOUDEW	8/1	Merton, Thomas - 10	340.93
6	6	LET'S GO METS	6/1	Rawlings, Dan - 16	334.13

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine Mohawk Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Post: 7:03 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$36000 - PREFERRED.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 NEW RULES 7/2
# 1 AMIGO VOLO 3/5
# 6 FRANKS ANGEL 6/1

NEW RULES will have you running to the cashier's window in this contest. Cannot put a finger on it, but get behind this gelding for a wager. Really liked this gelding's last race. Ran a strong 92 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Major player. Many harness players favor this gelding on the driver-trainer ratings alone. AMIGO VOLO - May provide us a score based on very nice recent TrackMaster speed figs - earning an avg of 96. Has a sharp shot today, if he can repeat his back racing class. FRANKS ANGEL - Post 6 has been winning at an above average percent, suggesting competitive probability of success in this event. Have a gut feel this one might sneak by in this event.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Golden St -4.5 over Toronto

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U


Monday's Free Selection: Campbell/Elon over 135 1/2