Tweet
Fearless
Record 21 - 13
#193 No/Dame
#156 Cincinnati
#153 Miami Florida
Record 21 - 13
#193 No/Dame
#156 Cincinnati
#153 Miami Florida
-
Gold Sheet
KR - 13 -25
Key Releases
#136 KANSAS STATE by 6
#141 WYOMING Plus
#145 NAVY by 3
#201 EAST CAROLINA by 9
Gold Sheet - CKO
11* 5-2-1
10* 16-13
Priority Picks
11* #134 EASTERN MICHIGAN
10* #117 PITTSBURGH
10 * #126 VANDERBILT
10* #187 ARIZONA ST.
10 * #200 SOUTHERN MISSComment
-
NELLYS
1=9-12
2=10-9
3=6-3
4=8-3
5=4-5
Key Selections
RATING 5 #128 CLEM (-16½) over W F
RATING 4 #155 W VIRG (+3½) over Cinci
RATING 3 #200 SO MISS (-10½) over UCF
RATING 2 #122 ILLINOIS (+1) over Mich
RATING 2 #161 NEB (-2½) over Penn St
RATING 1 #160 MISSOURI (+2) over Tex
RATING 1 #140 KANSAS (+19½) over BaylorComment
-
Pointwise
1=12-7
2=9-6
3=7-6
4=11-11
5=10-9
Key Releases
#139 BAYLOR RATING: 1
#178 STANFORD RATING: 1
#163 OKLAHOMA ST RATING: 2
#168 ARKANSAS RATING: 3
#166 IOWA RATING: 4
#191 WISCONSIN RATING: 4
#111 HOUSTON RATING: 5
#172 USC RATING: 5Comment
-
Powerplay
1*=9-3
2*=8-7
3*=16-19
4*=44-37-2
4.5=12-15
2* #119 OHIO ST 26 PURDUE 17
2* #124 NORTHWESTERN 49 RICE 31
4* #128 CLEMSON 45 WAKE FOREST 26
3* #136 KANSAS ST 33 TEXAS A&M 32
3* #137 KENT ST 22 AKRON 14
4* #140 KANSAS 29 (+) BAYLOR 45
4* #141 WYOMING 24 (+) AIR FORCE 33
4* #144 BYU 37 IDAHO 13
4* #156 CINCINNATI 43 WEST VIR 34
4.5 * #162 PENN ST 16 NEBRASKA 16
4.5* #166 IOWA 21 MICHIGAN ST 21
4.5* #174 GEORGIA 35 AUBURN 17
4* #185 ALABAMA 27 MISSISSIPPI ST 5
4* #191 WISCONSIN 52 MINNESOTA 20
3* #193 NOTRE DAME 36 MARYLAND 15
4.5* #200 SOUTHERN MISS 34 UCF 16
2* #204 COLORADO 26 (+) ARIZONA 36
4* #207 ULM 35 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 23Comment
-
NORTHCOAST BIG DOGS
Kansas +20 +925
Wyoming +16-1/2 +590
San Jose State +11 +325
Texas Tech +17 +705
Colorado State + 13-1/2 +405
Washington State + 12-1/2 +365
Colorado +11 +325
New Mexico +7 +250
Miami-Fla +9-1/2 +285
Oregon State +9-1/2 +285
Kentucky +13 +405
UCLA +7 +245
Early Bird play is on WisconsinComment
-
NCAA CFB NEWS AND NOTES
College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 11
By Adam Thompson
Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers (+1, 58.5)
WHY TEXAS WILL COVER: The Longhorns have been on a roll, crushing every opponent not from Oklahoma since a narrow BYU win in Week 2. The run game is 11th in the nation.
WHY MISSOURI WILL COVER: The Tigers average 245 yards rushing and 255 passing, putting pressure on a defense which is strong against the run and mediocre vs. the pass.
POINTS: The over is 6-2 in Mizzou’s last eight and 4-1-1 in Texas’ last six.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions (+3, 43)
WHY NEBRASKA WILL COVER: : The run game is a force when NU gets an early lead. Penn State is just 2-7 ATS and is dealing with the worst off-field distraction in college football history.
WHY PENN STATE WILL COVER: : The Lions’ defense ranks No. 8 against the pass and 24th vs. the rush. Take a lead led by the strong rush game, and the Huskers may struggle to keep up.
POINTS: The under is 3-0 in Nebraska’s last three, and the over has hit just once for PSU all year.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Clemson Tigers (-16.5, 60)
WHY WAKE FOREST WILL COVER: The Deacons have the pass game to stick around. The team has been good for 17-24 points four straight games, which forces Clemson to be very productive to cover.
WHY CLEMSON WILL COVER: Wake Forest has not fared well against teams that throw, and Clemson averages 304 ypg through the air. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS and Wake Forest has been poor on the road, just 2-8 ATS in its last 10.
POINTS: The over is 6-3 for Clemson and if the Tigers will cover, they’ll likely go over.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Cincinnati Bearcats (-3.5, 76)
WHY WEST VIRGINIA WILL COVER: West Virginia is a passing team and Cincy ranks 105th at stopping it.
WHY CINCINNATI WILL COVER: The Bearcats have won six straight, 4-2 ATS. They’ve used a balanced offense to average 39 ppg (11th).
POINTS: The over has hit in WVU’s last eight games, but the under is 4-1 in Cincy’s last five.
Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes (+2.5, 46.5)
WHY MICHIGAN STATE WILL COVER: Michigan State’s defense ranks among the best, including No. 2 against the pass. The pass offense has shown big improvements.
WHY IOWA WILL COVER: Iowa’s defense is good-not-great, but it ranks higher than MSU’s offense in the similar categories. The team allows yards, but not points. MSU almost lost to Minnesota last week.
POINTS: Both teams have better defenses than offenses. A typical Big Ten slugfest.
Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks (N/A)
WHY FLORIDA WILL COVER:South Carolina may be missing its quarterback, and it’s still trying to find a way to replace star RB Marcus Lattimore. Gamecocks QB Connor Shaw suffered a concussion and has been cleared to play, but it was unsure as of Wednesday afternoon if he would. If the Gators can grab an early lead, the third-ranked pass defense should do the rest.
WHY SOUTH CAROLINA WILL COVER: Like Florida, South Carolina relies more on the run and has a strong pass D. Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five. South Carolina has alternated winning and losing ATS since Week 1. Last week, the Gamecocks lost.
POINTS: After a couple weeks of hitting the under, both teams are coming off an over game.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+17, 78)
WHY OKLAHOMA STATE WILL COVER: OSU’s offense has demolished everyone so far, and TT’s defense already allows 34 ppg. At some point, the Red Raiders will get overwhelmed.
WHY TEXAS TECH WILL COVER: Tech can score with anyone, and the defense, while it has its flaws, is 37th against the pass. OSU’s defense isn’t exactly Alabama, either.
POINTS: The over is 7-1 in Tech’s last eight, and there’s little reason to believe either team will slow the other.
TCU Horned Frogs at Boise State Broncos (-15, 58)
WHY TCU WILL COVER: The Frogs are as balanced as they come, averaging 227 ypg rushing and 224 passing. This game is the season for TCU, so it’s hard to imagine a blowout.
WHY BOISE STATE WILL COVER: Aside from an opening win at Georgia (-3), this is the first manageable spread for the Broncos. Their offense ranks top 20 in every category, and the defense is No. 5 against the pass, impressive since most opponents play catch-up.
POINTS: The over is 7-2 in TCU’s last nine. Both offenses match up well in this one.
Texas A&M Aggies at Kansas State Wildcats (+4.5, 64)
WHY TEXAS A&M WILL COVER:The Aggies can score in any which way, and KSU is 117th against the pass. Texas A&M’s pass defense is terrible, but KSU doesn’t throw. And the Aggies stop the run.
WHY KANSAS STATE WILL COVER: K-State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight, Texas A&M is 1-7. And the Wildcats are getting points. If you believe in streaks, this is an easy one.
POINTS: The over is 6-1 in KSU’s last seven, and this is a matchup that could break A&M out of its funk.
Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-13.5, 52.5)
WHY AUBURN WILL COVER: The Tigers have found ways to win the close ones. Georgia’s two losses have come at home.
WHY GEORGIA WILL COVER: The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven. Auburn can’t throw but it runs; too bad Georgia ranks No. 8 against it. The offense has been balanced and strong.
POINTS: Auburn will have to revive a dormant pass game to help out.
Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+27, 63.5)
WHY WISCONSIN WILL COVER: The Badgers are fourth in scoring, and average 246 yards rushing and 257 passing per game. Minnesota can’t stop one dimension of defense, let alone two. UW is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Big Ten games.
WHY MINNESOTA WILL COVER:The Gophers try to run the ball, both to shorten games and score. The Badgers, if they have a defensive weakness, is slowing the run (47th).
POINTS: The over has hit in a whopping 11 consecutive meetings.
Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini (-1, 49)
WHY MICHIGAN WILL COVER: The Illini are reeling, losers of three straight. With a spread that allows simply picking a winner, going with the squad that has Denard Robinson is a good way to go.
WHY ILLINOIS WILL COVER: The winner will likely be the team that has the better run game. Both are strong on the ground, but Illinois’ run D is 15th and Michigan’s is 48th. Michigan is 1-7 ATS in its last eight on the road.
POINTS: The under has hit three straight times for both teams.
Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-14, 55)
WHY TENNESSEE WILL COVER: The Vols have the 14th-best pass defense in the nation, which will help against the Razorbacks.
WHY ARKANSAS WILL COVER: Tennessee can’t run and that matches up well for Arkansas. The offense racks up enough points to do the rest. The Vols are 0-4-1 ATS in the SEC.
POINTS: The under is 5-0-1 in the Vols’ last six.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at LSU Tigers (-42, 49)
WHY WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL COVER: The Hilltoppers can run the ball at times. It should only take 1-2 scores, late in the game against LSU’s reserves, to cover.
WHY LSU WILL COVER: If LSU comes out with the same intensity it did at Alabama last week, it could be 42-0 by halftime.
POINTS: If LSU covers, the over will likely go with it.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs (17, 42.5)
WHY ALABAMA WILL COVER: Uh-oh, Bulldogs, the Tide have something to prove. Bama’s defense currently ranks No. 1 in passing yards (130.7), rushing yards (56.3) and points allowed (7.1).
WHY MISSISSIPPI STATE WILL COVER: The Bulldogs like to run and the defense, which ranks No. 16 in points and No. 19 in passing, is no sieve.
POINTS: The over has hit for MSU’s last two, but both teams will be charged by the defenses.
Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal (-3.5, 65.5)
WHY OREGON WILL COVER: The Ducks haven’t been in a close game since Week 1. Oregon is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
WHY STANFORD WILL COVER: While both teams can score, only Stanford has shown the ability to also shut down an opponent. Oregon is fifth in rushing, but Stanford’s defense is third in stopping it. The Cardinal is 9-0 ATS this season.
POINTS: Both teams have good defenses, but great offenses.
Central Florida Knights at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-8.5, 52)
WHY CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL COVER: The Knights have a defense that ranks No. 6 in passing, No. 16 in rushing and No. 5 in points. It is the top unit USM’s offense has seen thus far. The offense is only so-so, but is certainly not terrible.
WHY SOUTHERN MISS COVER: The Eagles’ offense is 18th in scoring and the defense is 19th in point allowed. UCF is 1-6 ATS in its last seven, including 0-4 on the road.
POINTS: The under is 7-2 for UCF and 6-3 for USM.Comment
-
NCAA CFB NEWS AND NOTES
Games To Watch - Week 11
By Brian Edwards
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
As of Wednesday, most betting shops had Nebraska listed as a 3½-point favorite with a total of 43. Gamblers can take Penn St. to win outright for a plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145). On Wednesday morning, Joe Paterno announced his retirement effective at the end of the season. Obviously, this decision was prompted by the stunning arrest of former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky, who faces incomprehensible allegations of sex crimes committed against young boys over the course of more than a decade. PSU is 5-1 straight up and 2-4 against the spread at home this year. The Nittany Lions, who are coming off an open date, have won seven in a row since suffering their lone loss to Alabama to Week 2. Nebraska had won three straight before losing a 28-25 decision to Northwestern as a 17-point home favorite last week. The Cornhuskers are 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road this year, and they're 9-4 ATS as road favorites during Bo Pelini's four-year tenure. The 'under' is 7-1-1 overall for PSU. Totals have been an overall wash (4-4) for Nebraska, but it has seen the 'under' hit in its last three games and go 2-1 in its road assignments.
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Most spots have Cincinnati listed as a 3½-point favorite with a total of 66. Bettors can take West Va. on the money line for a plus-150 payout. Butch Jones's squad is coming off a 26-23 win at Pitt as a 3½-point road favorite. Zach Collaros overcame a pair of interceptions by rushing for two TDs for the Bearcats, who have won six in a row since losing at Tennessee in Week 2. WVU has lost two of its last three both SU and ATS, including last week's surprising 38-35 loss to Louisville as a 12½-point home favorite. The Mountaineers' defense has been awful the last three games, giving up 38, 31 and 49 points. WVU signal caller Geno Smith is enjoying a banner year with a 23/5 TD-INT ratio, but he'll be without one of his favorite targets (Brad Starks) for the rest of the regular season. The 'over' has hit in eight consecutive games for WVU, but Cincy has seen the 'under' go 4-1 its last five times out. When these Big East adversaries met in Morgantown last year, WVU cruised to a 37-10 victory.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
As of Wednesday, most books had Michigan St. listed as a 2½ point 'chalk' with a total of 47. The Spartans have failed to cover the number in back-to-back outings, including last week's 31-24 come-from-behind win over Minnesota as 28-point home favorites. Kirk Cousins threw for 296 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted, while Le'Veon Bell rushed for 96 yards and two TDs on 15 carries. For the season, Cousins has passed for 1,989 yards with a 13/5 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Iowa bounced back from a shocking loss at Minnesota to beat Michigan by a 24-16 count as a 3½-point home underdog last Saturday. Marcus Coker rushed for 132 yards and two TDs to lead his team into the win column. The Hawkeyes are unbeaten at home this year and 4-2 versus the number. As home 'dogs under Kirk Ferentz, they own a 12-7-2 spread record since 1999. When these Big Ten rivals met last year, Iowa cruised to a 37-6 win as a 6½-point home favorite. The 'under' is 6-3 overall for Michigan St., 3-0 in its road assignments. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have seen the 'over' go 5-4 overall, 4-2 in their home games.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Boise State Broncos
Most books are listing Boise St. as a 15½-point favorite with a total of 58½. The Broncos are off a 48-21 non-covering win at UNLV as enormous 42-point favorites. Heisman candidate Kellen Moore threw five TD passes without getting picked off to improve his TD/INT ratio to 29/5 for the year. TCU also failed to cover as a road 'chalk' last week, beating Wyoming 31-20 as a 19½-point favorite. Waymon James was the catalyst with 181 rushing yards on just 12 carries, while Ed Wesley added 120 yards on the ground and two TD runs. Gary Patterson's squad has won four in a row since losing to SMU at home in OT. The Horned Frogs, who are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road this season, are 6-3-1 ATS as road 'dogs since 2005. BSU has failed to cover the spread in four consecutive home games on the smurf turf dating back to last year's regular-season finale. These teams met in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago with the Broncos winning a 17-10 decision as seven-point underdogs. The 'over' is 7-2 overall for TCU, 5-3 overall for BSU.
Auburn Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Mark Richt's team can clinch the SEC East title and trip to the Ga. Dome to meet the SEC West winner if it can knock off Auburn between the hedges. Oddsmakers have made the Dawgs 13-point favorites to do just that. The total is 53. UGA has won seven in a row since losing its first two games and it is a lucrative 6-1 ATS during this span. Sophomore QB Aaron Murray is the main reason why, as he's thrown for 2,060 yards while posting a 23/8 TD-INT ratio. Gene Chizik's team had an open date to get ready for its trip to Athens. The Tigers are off a 41-23 home win over Ole Miss as 11-point favorites. Clint Moseley completed 12-of-15 passes for four TDs without an interception in the win over the Rebels. When these teams met on The Plains last season, UGA raced out to a double-digit lead before Cam Newton took over and led AU to a 49-31 triumph. The 'over' is 5-4 overall for both teams this year.Comment
Comment