Sunday 3/2/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #5

#1 Lovebug	She's starting to get short on excuses, but she has some inside pace in a race without a ton of speed and could shake these off into the stretch. Graduation day.
#2 Rose's Wish	She's another who has found herself in some good spots and been unable to seal the deal, but she's capable of something better than she showed when facing some of these in December. Tracking trip keeps her in the frame.
#8 Solo Surprise	She's probably going to be in an OK spot spying the speed into the turn, but she has given away a lot of ground late in her races and lengths to turn on the top choice.
Race Summary	Lovebug should get a nice run of things from the fence in a race without much other pace, and her baseline effort seems good enough in this modest group.

Mahoning Valley - Race #9

#8 Bumper Sticker	Get a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this, but he's a fresh face in a race that doesn't feel like it has a lot of depth. Might make some noise from the high draw.
#4 Skunk Ape	Impossible to decipher his form, but he flashed a bit of sharp pace last time out that might keep him in the picture again early today if he can bring it again. I dunno...
#2 Wild Domain	Another tough call, as the form is clearly there for him to be a handful, but he's going to take some cash again and came up short at 4/5 and 3/2 in his last two starts. The one to beat, but I feel like you can look somewhere else.
Race Summary	Bumper Sticker goes first out in a race that runs through Wild Domain who has burned a bit of cash in recent starts and could be vulnerable again here.

Mahoning Valley - Race #10

#8 He Is Dynamic	Not much from him in the local debut, but he showed a bit better in the Belterra start last fall and might have some room to come forward second off the layoff. One of the ones at a midrange price?
#5 P J's Boy	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here after considering some reasonable upside out of the debut run, and something like that start here in January probably already isn't too far off what he'd need today.
#4 Vernon's Best	Forward player has had his chances, but the baseline form feels competitive with this group. Still, there are three losses in a row on the page at super-short prices, so it won't be me landing here at anything like even money if he takes cash.
Race Summary	Hoping for a bounce-back effort today from He Is Dynamic who may not be quite as overmatched here as the local dud last out would suggest.

[ConleyPicks]

Aqueduct Hotlist - March 2


Mar. 01, 2025

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

5^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 mi] – (5) Romeo Void (B) got steadied at the eighth pole but kept running to hold third position. (4) The Tire Man made his first start against NY-breds after racing against open company, pressed the pace, got to the lead, and finished second. (6) Outsource had a pair of third-place finishes in his last two starts and shows up as a new gelding. (7) Pistol Hip Sam ships up from Florida where he had an extensive work tab to prepare for his debut for a good trainer with young horses.

6^th race [Clm 20000, 6 ? F] – (5) Best Bet (D) was bet down from 20-1 to 6-1 in December, set the pace, and stopped. (1) Graywing finished in the top three in 10 out of his last 11 starts and was claimed last race for $25,000. (2) J J’s Joker drops out of a series of starter allowances to the level at which he was claimed. (3) Honorary Degree was a winner two weeks ago for a $15,000 tag when he overcame a poor start.

8^th race [Clm 50000B, 7F] – (8) Chasing Daylight (B) broke in a tangle, rushed up to second, then faded, and drops out of a series of NY-bred allowances. (2) Toned Up finished second in 4 out of her last 5 starts and makes his third start following a layoff. (1) I’m Buzzy drops back in for a tag for the price at which he was claimed in November. (5) Save Us Melania has been off since December and moves back in for a tag.

9^th race [Md 20000, 1 1/8 mi] – (1A) Very Satisfactory (C) was bet down from 6-1 to 4-1 and finished fourth. (7) Tiz the Prince comes back from a December layoff as a new gelding for hot trainer David Duggan. (4) Limits of Power set the pace last time and finished fourth. (3) Bad Boy Butch was second at this level back in November.

Best bets: Romeo Void (5^th); Very Satisfactory (9^th). Best value: Best Bet (6^th); Chasing Daylight (8^th).

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(5)	Romeo Void	B on 1/26	5	Had to steady in the stretch and ran third.
(5)	Best Bet	D on 12/28	6	Heavily bet late, set the pace, and stopped
(8)	Chasing Daylight	B on 1/24	8	Broke in a tangle and rushed up to second.
(1A)	Very Satisfactory	C on 2/6	9	Took late money and ran second.

[ConleyPicks]

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - March 2


Mar. 01, 2025

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (2) Champagne Brunch was second last time on dirt and should get the win here. (5) Raghba may improve in her second. (6) Sugarfina might like the added distance. (8) Protective Custody is an interesting first-time starter. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-6-8.

3rd race – (2) Bedrock Birdie had some trouble last time and should prevail off the class drop. (5) American of Course could be tough to catch in this field. (4) Gayles Evening won her last and merits respect off the Barboza claim. (8) Founder’s Day will appreciate a return to Tapeta. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-8.

5th race – (5) Madness missed by less than a length last time and can make amends here. (3) Miguel’s Belle was second last time and should be the main threat. (1) Chaina will benefit from a rail trip. (4) Trevess moves back to dirt here. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-5.

7th race – (1) Golden Skull (B) was hurt by a wide trip last time and can handle this field from the rail. (4) Pirate Radio should wake up at this level. (8) Lookin At Roses should be a threat in this field. (9) Bringer of Rain cannot be ignored here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-8-9.

9th race - (1) Dilger was second after a four-month break and seems poised for a win. (7) Beastly Speed won his last start and looms as the main foe. (3) Uncaptured Warrior adds Irad and may wake up. (2) Pay Zone could bounce back with a better try here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-7.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(1)	Golden Skull	B, 1/29	7 GP	Was hurt by a wide trip

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 5	Pick 3 (5-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Quinella / Superfecta / Daily Double 5-6
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 51 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:30P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 2 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 2ALLOWED 3 LBS. 4# A DEBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * BRODY'S PRINCESS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LA NEGRA NOCHE: Horse has a TrackM aster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MAGNIFICENT CREED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BINOCHE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	BRODY'S PRINCESS	2/1	4/1
2	LA NEGRA NOCHE	9/2	6/1
1	MAGNIFICENT CREED	5/1	10/1
6	BINOCHE	10/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	BRODY'S PRINCESS	7	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	61	58	59.0	37.2	31.7
6	BINOCHE	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	53	46	40.8	33.0	25.0
1	MAGNIFICENT CREED	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	56	47	40.2	37.0	27.5
2	LA NEGRA NOCHE	2	9/2	Trailer	49	52	43.0	42.8	39.3
3	MARTINI'S AMICA	3	4/1	Trailer	63	37	36.0	28.2	18.7
5	SUNTANA	5	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	43	41	40.0	38.6	26.1
4	GALILEO'S AFFAIR	4	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	60	54	29.2	34.4	27.4

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $8595 Class Rating: 63

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 JAZZY GIRL 9/5
# 3 EVEN TOUGHER 5/2
# 2 BDR EAGLE DYNASTY 2/1

I've got to go with JAZZY GIRL. Shows evidence of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 55 speed figure which is one of the most respectable in this group. Has been running admirably lately and ought to be close to the lead early on. Should definitely be considered in this contest if only for the formidable speed rating put up in the last race. EVEN TOUGHER - Has performed solidly recently in short races, posting a nifty 52 avg speed figure. Ought to be considered for this race if only for the very strong Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last race. BDR EAGLE DYNASTY - Has been running well lately and should be close to the lead early on. With a competitive 63 Equibase speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Oaklawn Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:20pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#10 DREAM PRINCESS (ML=5/1)
#3 FEARLESS KRISTIE (ML=20/1)


DREAM PRINCESS - Asmussen comes to ride again after getting to know the mare in the last event. Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track in the last race. With the benefit of a fast track, has a fair chance in this event. Another way to assign class is earnings per race. This mount has the highest in the bunch. I think she'll be close at the finish. FEARLESS KRISTIE - This mare looks like a natural router, based on efforts in last 2 sprint races. This horse ran out of the money at Oaklawn Park last out on a track listed as good. She should improve today without a sloppy track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SARANAC LAKE (ML=2/1), #5 BABY GUNDIN (ML=5/2), #4 BUTTERFLY QUEEN (ML=6/1),

SARANAC LAKE - You should normally gamble against probable favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. BABY GUNDIN - This mare finished outside the top 3 on Nov 21st and wasn't close in the last race either. This questionable contender ran a disappointing speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's race running that fig. BUTTERFLY QUEEN - This horse just hasn't looked ready recently. Registered a most unsatisfactory speed figure in the last race in a $12,500 Claiming race on Jan 31st. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that number.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #10 DREAM PRINCESS to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 73

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR NEBRASKA-BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 BIG TIPPA 3/1
# 5 DREAMIN IT UP 4/1
# 2 DIAL SUM IN 5/2

BIG TIPPA is my choice. Should go to the front end and should never look back. Could beat this group given the 73 speed figure put up in her last outing. Boasts formidable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses. DREAMIN IT UP - This pick will feel the med change - on Lasix today. Looks formidable to be up near the front end at the first call. DIAL SUM IN - Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this group. Seems to have a respectable class edge based on the recent company kept.

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[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 2	EXACTA &TRIFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 2-3) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 58 • Purse: $33,000 • Post: 12:44
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, IF FOR $24,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. MARYLAND BRED CLAIMING PRICE $37,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. HAPPY HOUR JOKER is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HAPPY HOUR JOKER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surf ace. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TUNED TO THE MOON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	HAPPY HOUR JOKER	7/5	9/5
1	TUNED TO THE MOON	8/5	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	HAPPY HOUR JOKER	2	7/5	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	61.5	48.1	45.1
5	LASS SASSENACH	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	49.0	39.9	34.4
1	TUNED TO THE MOON	1	8/5	Trailer	55	46	49.3	43.6	37.1
4	SEVEN'S MAGIC	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	53	42	49.4	39.6	34.1
3	MARIAH KATHRYN	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	44.1	21.1	11.6

Unknown Running Style: WICKED MELISSA (6/1) [Jockey: Mena Raul E - Trainer: Mancilla Carlos A].

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:19pm - Optional Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $53,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#7 CAJUN VENOM (ML=5/1)
#8 DEPORTIVO (ML=6/1)
#2 ART FAIR (ML=7/2)
#6 ASHLEY'S ARCHER (ML=6/5)


CAJUN VENOM - Have to give this colt a chance. Ran a nice race in the last race within the last thirty days. Using this jock/trainer combination is a good choice. Colt took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. DEPORTIVO - Jock jumped on this colt's back for the first ride on January 24th. Should be in tune with the equine even better this time. This jock and conditioner's horses have been generating a lucrative return on investment. ART FAIR - Casse has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. This colt notched a nice speed rating of 83 in his last affair. That speed rating should be high enough to triumph this time around. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the first time should be considered. That's what we have here. ASHLEY'S ARCHER - Casse drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to figure that this one should run well at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: No Vulnerable Contenders in this race,

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #7 CAJUN VENOM on top if we're getting at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
1	1	THE TURNING POINT	3/1	Coulter, Scott - 13	459.80
3	3	CLODAM BAYAMA	9/2	Sorrie, Austin - 19	445.63
2	2	WILDCAT DELIGHT	7/2	Macdonald, Brett A - 14	445.30
7	7	ROYAL TELL	6/5	Cullen, Travis A - 27	433.54
4	4	RED DIRT FLASH	6/1	Mackenzie, Paul G - 8	417.69
5	5	SHEMARS LADY HAVOC	8/1	Ryan, Jason D - 12	401.45
6	6	LA COEUR CHAPEAU	10/1	Fillion, Samuel - 16	376.87

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 11
1	1	LEGAL BETTOR	9/5	Beckwith, Brett - 24	480.40
7	7	CALL OUT MY NAME	8/1	Cushing, Mitchell - 11	460.81
4	4	ADVANCE MAN	8/5	Athearn, Matthew - 12	445.44
6	6	OUTCRY	20/1	Devaux, Jim - 14	427.79
2	2	QUAGMIRE BLUECHIP	5/1	Long, Chris - 9	422.50
3	3	TREASURE MACH	10/1	Fluet, Phil - 13	415.86
5	5	ODDS ON BREXIT	15/1	Byron, Aaron - 13	412.70
8	8	CANT TOUCH NASTY	12/1	Bailey, Leon - 9	391.15

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Post: 8:12 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$8000 - NON WINNERS $3500 IN LAST 4 STARTS. AE: CLAIMING $10,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 WIN NOT LOU 8/5
# 3 LYONS SNYDER 8/1
# 2 DELRAY DUDE 6/1

Look no further than WIN NOT LOU as the play in this event. Might be there at a fair price tag. Positively one to keep in your exotics. Could very well be the most competitive in the field of starters here, showing nice figures of late. Avg speed is a solid 84. It's somewhat risky to consider on class alone, but this gelding has among the strongest class markings of the grouping. LYONS SNYDER - Have a feeling this one might contend this time. DELRAY DUDE - He's performing in fine form, recording substantial speed figures. An excellent choice. More than likely the class of the bunch with an average rating of 84. A nice pick.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 11 - Post: 7:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$22500 - STARTER ALLOWANCE FOR HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED IN A CLAIMING RACE FOR $40,000 OR LESS AT MVG ONCE IN THEIR LAST 2 STARTS OPTIONAL CLAIMING $40,000 NO. 10 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER C. PAGE LISTED 3/6

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 ROCKMELIKEYAMEANIT 5/2
# 4 BELL I NO 7/2
# 6 BACKSTREET GAMBLER 6/1

ROCKMELIKEYAMEANIT figures to be our best wagering option in this race. This nice horse may have some hidden form, a win would be a pleasant surprise. Feel the need for speed, this harness racer has been turning in some top notch TrackMaster Speed Ratings averaging around 93. When the starter calls, contenders beginning out of the 1 post have more wins than the expected average. BELL I NO - If performance in the last competition is representative, this nice horse will have a very competitive shot today. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. Really strong driver/trainer, winning 27 percent of the time. Appears to be a strong wager. BACKSTREET GAMBLER - Can't overlook the connections here, a 19 winning percent, one of the most compelling at getting into the winners circle. This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win percentage.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Liberty -9 over Kennisaw St