11-19-11

[Mr. IWS]

The Consensus Pick

Pick of the Day: 6.5-point teaser [Penn State +13; Texas -1] (-110)[NCAA-FB]
Free Pick: 5/6-point teaser [Tennessee Tech -2; Navy Pick] (even) [NCAA-BB & NCAA-FB]

[Mr. IWS]

sammy p saturday

10* Florida +100 (16)

20* Power Play: San Jose -140 (21)

10* San Jose +215 (21)

ANALYSIS: This is a play on the puckline San Jose -1.5 goals

[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay

20* CFB Steamroller GOY
Navy

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS


N.C. STATE +8/+264 over Clemson SportsInteraction
3:30 PM EST. Clemson clinched the ACC Atlantic Division with last week's comeback win against Wake Forest, rendering this week's tilt at NC State more meaningful for the Wolfpack than for the Tigers. Clemson could be short-handed for this one, as the Tigers' best offensive lineman is out and superstar freshman receiver Sammy Watkins is so banged up he'll be a game-time decision. Quarterback Tajh Boyd and the Tigers have been turnover-prone lately, committing seven in the past two games to go along with a handful of near interceptions that opponents couldn't quite pull down. That's bad news against an aggressive Wolfpack outfit that leads the nation in picks. N.C. State's defense doesn't just force turnovers; it's been playing total shutdown ball lately, blanking the North Carolina Tar Heels two weeks ago and then holding the Boston College Eagles to negative total yardage in the second half of last week's loss. This defense had high expectations coming into the year, but it endured an injury-plagued first half of the season. With several of those key players back on the field, the Wolfpack are playing the best defense of the Tom O'Brien era. O'Brien's team has shown a propensity to stumble when favored but plays its best with its back against the wall. State's season is on the line Saturday since the 5-5 Pack -- having played two FCS teams this year -- must win out to earn a postseason bid. Dabo Swinney has lost three games outright as a road favorite already in his short career, and we'll happily take more than a TD at home with a decent Wolfpack bunch in a must-win spot against a Clemson team that made its bones last week. We’ll also play the Wolfpack on the money line. Play: #336 N.C State +8 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2). Play: #336 N.C State +264 (Risking 1 unit).

MICHIGAN –3½ over Nebraska PINNACLE
12:00 PM EST. The Cornhuskers played their best game of the season last week at Penn State, but we continue to be unimpressed by the current regime. Since Taylor Martinez became the starting quarterback, Nebraska has put the ball on the ground more than any other team in the nation. The defense is very coverage-oriented, built to stop Big 12 offenses but struggles with both mobile quarterbacks and solid downhill tailback attacks. Michigan neither recruited nor developed players well on defense during the Rich Rodriguez/Greg Robinson era, and this unit is under-talented by the program's usual standards. The roster contains maybe three players who could start for the defense that the Wolverines will be fielding three years from now, which makes the quick transformation that Brady Hoke and coordinator Greg Mattison have wrought all the more impressive. There haven't been many interceptions or tackles for loss, but overall there's lots to like about a Michigan defense that's really starting to come together down the stretch. The Wolves can slow a Nebraska attack that's been hit hard by injuries to key blockers, and facing Denard Robinson in practice each week is excellent preparation for what the Maize and Blue will see out of Martinez. Robinson and emerging star Fitzgerald Toussaint can keep the chains moving against the Huskers, who will be taxed by a schedule that calls for back-to-back plane trips to huge, unfamiliar stadiums after last week’s unforgettable and highly emotional tilt at Penn State. Play: #372 Michigan –3½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Penn State +6½ over OHIO STATE PINNACLE
6½-points is an enormous spot in any game with a total under 39 points, and it's way too much for a one-dimensional offense to give the Big Ten's best defensive team. The return of wideout DeVier Posey is a boost for the Buckeyes, but they'll need more than one man to cure a passing attack that hasn't managed more than 143 yards all season on a team from outside the MAC. The Nittany Lions are a different bunch of guys than they were 10 days ago. They are representing a lot more than football and the university and have been somewhat overwhelmed by all the support they’ve been given not only across the U.S. but worldwide. It was an emotional week before last week’s game against Nebraska and they should be more focused this week with a full week of preparation with new their new coaches. Expect the Lions to play their hearts out this week and perhaps pull off the upset. Play: #377 Penn State +6½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

California +18½ over STANFORD Sports Interaction
Sportsinteraction has the Golden Bears receiving 18½-points and we’ll play it there. If you don’t have an account with them, the recommendation is to still play Cal +17 or 17½, depending on where you do your shopping. What we do know is that the Cardinal confidence was badly shaken last week after Oregon made them look like an unranked, run of the mill football team. Oh, and when is The Big Game not actually the big game? When it's sandwiched between a season-defining loss and a home date with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. This is too much wood for deflated Stanford to lay against a Cal team with a respectable defense, solid ground game and wide-outs that can exploit the Cardinal's biggest weakness, much like the Ducks did over and over and over again. Much of Stanford’s 30 points last week came when the game was out of reach and while the Golden Bears aren’t the Cardinal, they’re well balanced on both sides of the ball and with a little magic could put a big scare into Stanford. Play: #369 California (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

ARKANSAS –13 over Mississippi St. PINNACLE
3:30 PM EST. Mississippi State is a tough out for almost everyone but this year that's all the Bulldogs are. This is a visitor that can’t move five yards against quality defenses and the Razorbacks certainly qualify. Arkansas is a rising power that's been playing its best football of the season in all three phases lately. MSU is going to have to rely on a huge defensive effort but that defense will be on the field way too long and way too often to stay within this range. The Bulldogs do not have the horses to trade blows with the Hogs for four quarters. Play: #396 Arkansas –13 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).








NHL


Phoenix +129 over BUFFALO Pinnacle
The Sabres have won six of their last eight games but a close look reveals that those six wins came against Ottawa twice, Calgary, Montreal, Winnipeg and Carolina last night. Three of those six wins also came in OT or shootout, thus, the Sabres could be on a 3-5 streak as opposed to a 6-2 streak. In at least half of those wins, the Sabres were the second best team on the ice. One could argue that Buffalo is way off these days. This was a team that used to play with a chip on its shoulders. They always scratched and clawed and played hard. They had an “us versus the world” attitude because they were always on a very limited budget and used role players and other teams castoffs among the talent they developed within. New owner Terry Pegula stepped in late last year and insisted he would stop short of nothing to get the Sabres a championship. In the off-season, Buffalo went out and spent some money and while the team has not changed that much in terms of personnel, the attitude or work ethic has. The Sabres look beatable every night and will now play its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs after another unconvincing win last night. If you’re not 100% against the Coyotes, you’re going to get beat. Phoenix plays with heart and guts every shift of every game and they’re also in a favorable spot. The Coyotes can smell an opportunity and seize it and this is one of those opportunities. Play: Phoenix +129 (Risking 2 units).

Washington -½ +108 over TORONTO (REG) Pinnacle
Fading the Maple Leafs has been a cash cow over their past six games and there’s no reason to stop now. The Leafs are coming off a decent effort in Nashville but once again, defensive mistakes hurt them and Ron Wilson’s arrogance didn’t help. With three minutes left in the game and the Leafs down 3-1, Wilson sends out a line that consisted of Jay Rosehill, Philippe Dupuis and Dave Steckel as if to say, “If you other guys can’t score, maybe these guys can”. The general public may not be aware of these things but the other players on the bench are. Can you imagine what they’re thinking with that trio on the ice when they need goals with three minutes to go? That makeshift line has 35 career goals in 478 games played. The Leafs played hard but the coach stuck it to them again and without sounding redundant, a lackluster effort could be in the cards tonight after that lame move by Ron Wilson (he also put that same trio on the ice after the Preds scored an empty netter just to rub it in a little). Players don’t respond well to crap like that and it’s no mystery as to why the Leafs have no shot of long-term success with this clown behind the bench. The Caps have dropped three in a row and will come in here in a foul mood and ready to step up its game on Hockey Night in Canada. Leafs are becoming more and more beatable every day. Play: Washington -½ +108 (Risking 2 units).

Columbus +179 over NASHVILLE Pinnacle
At some point the Jackets are going to win a road game and with a tag like this against a team that should never be this big a favorite, the Jackets are worthy of a play. It’s not like Columbus doesn’t have talent because they do, but a slow start has snowballed and shaky goaltending has hurt them tremendously. What we do know is that a lack of quality goaltending has cost them plenty of games in which they were the far better team. Against Minnesota on Tuesday they dominated play and outshot the Wild 45-24 but still lost 4-2. In that 4-1 loss to the Leafs a few games ago they allowed just 19 shots on net, they dominated play and lost 4-1. These are just two of many examples of the Jackets strong efforts with no rewards. Last game they switched from Steve Mason to Curtis Sanford and went into Boston and lost 2-1 in OT. While it was still a loss, they got much better goaltending and Sanford starts again. The Preds are so much more appealing in the underdog role. They just aren’t good enough to be laying elite team prices and that’s precisely what they’re laying here. They’re good but they’re also beatable and offensively challenged and that makes them a huge risk laying this kind of weight. Play: Columbus +179 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

80 dime Oregon -14.5

30 dime Texas Tech +18

[Mr. IWS]

HSW 7* Conneciticut

L&M 5* Georgia

GD West 2* Houston

[Mr. IWS]

OC Dooley:

“1 UNIT” NATIONAL-TV FOOTBALL INTANGIBLE (Texas Tech +18 at Missouri in a 3:30 eastern kickoff televised regionally on ABC): Host Missouri has SIX players listed as either “questionable” or “out” ranging from running back, tight end, offensive line, defensive back and even kicker Grant Ressel who is battling a hip injury. Of course the big news exactly one week ago was Penn State taking the field on “senior day” without 46-year mentor Joe Paterno at the controls. We have yet another unusual “senior day” situation this week as Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel has been suspended following a DUI arrest back on Wednesday evening. To make matters worse Missouri in a home victory last Saturday ended up losing the services of star Henry Josey (Big 12 top rusher) to a season-ending knee injury. Despite all the negatives Missouri has still been installed as a prohibitive favorite against a reeling opponent who has lost three in a row, including a 66-6 humiliation last Saturday. Ever since pulling off a massive upset of Oklahoma on the road, it has been tough times for Texas Tech (0-3) where the offense has been able to put up just 33 combined points on the scoreboard. It is interesting to note that this week the Athletic Director of Texas Tech gave 100% support to head coach Tommy Tuberville even though the Red Raiders are coming off the worst loss in school history. Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (56-25 since 1992 with a money line between 10’-and-21 points) that plays AGAINST favorites like Missouri after allowing 14-or-less points in the prior outing, against an opponent who has suffered consecutive blowout losses of 17+ points in margin. That system works since Missouri won a low scoring 17-5 contest at home a week ago where they covered a near pick-em spread. Missouri has actually ALTERNATED “spread” wins-and-losses in SEVEN consecutive contests and they are due for an ATS setback late this afternoon

[Mr. IWS]

Accuscore Week 11

Kansas State (+8) at Texas
Nebraska (+3.5) at Michigan
Boston College (+24.5) at Notre Dame
Colorado (+11) at UCLA
Stanford (-17.5) vs. California
Army (+13.5) at Temple
Wisconsin at Illinois OVER 50.5 Points

[Mr. IWS]

t. stryker college g.o.y. stanford

[Mr. IWS]

Sports bank
500* conference usa game of year
central florida

[Mr. IWS]

VEGAS VIC

Rutgers +3
USC +15 (best bet)
USC/Oregon over
Arizona/AZ State under

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass big play no rating Oregon one of his personal plays

Private plays

300 Wake
300 Miss State
600 AZ

[Mr. IWS]

Sports investors group
10* ucla

[Mr. IWS]

Tommy thunders power plays
10* navy

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS UNLIMITED ADDITIONAL PLAYS
7 SOUTH FLORIDA
5 nevada
5 navy over