Final 4 Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Patriots O-line #1 in run blocking per Football Outsiders adjusted line metric


Jaguars defense 28th in same stat

[New York Knight]

Vikings and Eagles defenses rank in top 6 in pass and rush yards/attempt


Total is 38 points, lowest over/under for a conference title game since 2011

[New York Knight]

Conference Championship games ... since 1980

Over/Under

Over - 35
Under - 36
Push - 1

[New York Knight]

The Patriots haven't played on the road since Dec 17.

During that span, the Jags have traveled to San Francisco, Tennessee and Pittsburgh.

By the time the Jags land in New England, they will have traveled around 9387 miles to the Patriots' 0.

[New York Knight]

The Vikings are 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 January road games.

[New York Knight]

2 of the Patriots 3 losses came against 2 of the 3 best rushing teams they faced this season (KC, Carolina). Miami had 120 yds rushing in the other loss.

The Jags are 1st in the NFL in rush yds per game.

[New York Knight]

Tom Brady: 286.1 pass YPG this season (1st in NFL)

Jaguars Defense: 169.9 pass YPG allowed this season (1st in NFL)

This is the 4th meeting between the #1 passer and #1 pass defense in a playoff game since 1990

The #1 pass defense is 3-0 in those games

[New York Knight]

Prior to Stefon Diggs' TD in the Divisional Round, 5 teams in the last 10 seasons had won a playoff game on a walk-off TD to advance to another postseason game that season

All 5 of those teams lost their next game, by an average of 23 points

[New York Knight]

Since the Jaguars entered the NFL in 1995, they are 1-10 (.091) against the Patriots, including playoff games.

That's the worst winning percentage of any team vs one opponent (min. 10 games) in that span.

[New York Knight]

Brady ... Conference Championship Games

15 TDs / 12 INTs / 81.7 QB rating


That's his lowest QB rating of any playoff round.

[New York Knight]

[New York Knight]

I'm sure it's nothing ... but worth noting ...


Brady won't be speaking with the media on Wednesday as the Patriots say the quarterback is with the medical team.

New England also noted that Brady will be on the injury report that's set to be released later this afternoon as they get ready for their AFC Championship matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

[New York Knight]

Why Jacksonville is a good bet on Sunday
Mark Gallant - ESPN INSIDER


Three games remain. For us bettors, that means only six potential full-game spread and total bets for the rest of the football season ... yikes! Always remember: Never bet a game just for action. Just because there is a big game on TV doesn't mean you have to force a bet. If you don't think you have an edge, feel free to sit back, relax and hoist a few brews as you watch some stress-free football.

With that said, I have one pick for you this weekend.


There are a few reasons I like Jacksonville here. The first is that they are getting more than a touchdown. Dating back to 2003, teams getting at least seven points in the playoffs have done well against the spread. This is especially true if you eliminate the wild-card round from your sample.

It makes sense that teams in the final three rounds have done well against the spread when getting more than a touchdown, as they're (generally) strong teams and deserve to be there. You'd imagine that games between the last handful of NFL teams remaining would be closely fought battles, and based off this data, we find that has indeed been the case.

When looking at teams getting 40 percent of bets or less, we find that betting against the public remains a profitable endeavor in the postseason. As of Tuesday, the Jaguars are getting only 39 percent of bets as nearly double-digit 'dogs.

Perhaps the trend I like the most, though, is that underperforming teams have dominated in the postseason. This is based off Pythagorean plus/minus, a theory I touched on a few weeks back. Based off their point differential, the Jaguars should have a better record than they do. Most of the time, these teams don't make the playoffs, as you would expect. This season, the Jaguars were the only playoff team with a negative Pythagorean plus/minus, while the Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills all had win percentages of .100 or higher than they should have.

At +9, there are plenty of reasons to bet on the Jags. I'm genuinely interested in seeing whether they can hit +10 at some point in the week. Given the public's deserved love of the New England Patriots, I'd say there is a fair chance it reaches double digits. I'll be waiting to see which direction the line heads before locking in my bet, as the potential reward for +10 is greater than the risk of moving from +9 to +8.5.

[New York Knight]

Ian Rapoport ...

"Vikings WR Adam Thielen did not participate in practice today because of a low back injury. He was present watching"

[New York Knight]

South Point ...


"So far just small play on all 4 sides"