How crazy is the current hot streak for favorites in the UFC?

[Ludo]

So much butthurt..............

[SPX]

BOL,he arguably lost 1 rd.(or was that rd 2?)

Not to mention Minowa is a bum x2

What's with the Minowa hate? That dude's a boss. . .

[SPX]

So much butthurt..............

BOL!

[Svino]

That is, make sure the line is justified and is not based on hype or that some legitimate way to win on the underdog's part is not being overlooked. So basically, does the fave really, truly have almost no way to win the fight?

One rule I try to follow is to imagine that the favorite is just a little worse in all areas than you think he is, and the underdog is just a little better. If that would give the underdog a decent chance, stay away from steep lines.

For fun: here are all the -500 or steeper losers from 2009 to present:

BJ Penn (-1100) vs. Frankie Edgar
Here, the fact that Edgar's "hummingbird style" was perfect for the type of outside striking match this fight was likely to be should have kept people away. Even so, it took a bad decision.

Rolles Gracie (-1010) vs. Joey Beltran
UFC newcomers = too much uncertainty.

Ryan Bader (-625) vs. Tito Ortiz
I'm not 100% convinced this line was bad. Maybe Bader just got caught?

Tom Lawlor (-620) vs. Joe Doerksen
The definition of a "grappler's chance".

Melvin Guillard (-615) vs. Joe Lauzon
Guillard rightly deserved to be a big favorite, but I guess if a fighter is undisciplined, there's a limit to how steep you should bet.

Erick Silva (-600) vs. Carlo Prater
Freak DQ, probably a good line, given the beating Silva put on him.

Josh Koscheck (-575) vs. Paulo Thiago
Good old K1 Kos. Wrestler who is too willing to stand vs. a guy with good power. Didn't scare me away from taking Kos at pretty heavy odds against Daley, though.

John Hathaway (-525) vs. Mike Pyle
This is the only one I actually bet (on Pyle).

Rick Story (-525) vs. Charlie Brenneman
This is a case where the rule I stated above would apply. People assumed Story would either outwrestle Brenneman, or their wrestling would cancel.

Brock Larson (-500) vs. Brian Foster
Brock Larson (-500) vs. Mike Pierce
Larson was -500 for three fights in 2009 and he had the good fortune to win one of them. But he didn't just lose both of these fights, he got dominated. LOL Larson.

[MMA_scientist]

don't you love it when you put in a bunch of work, post some new kind of stuff- get no replies- and the 15 posts arguing about minowa. IWS sucks so much, I am going to zewkey, catch you guys on the flipflop.

[Svino]

I got the UFC 2009 stats, too. It did also have the pattern of a positive -400 to -600 range and bad -116 to -119 range.

2009
-116 to -199 = -0.045
-200 to -299 = +0.044
-300 to -399 = -0.175
-400 to -599 = +0.030
-600 and lower = +0.120
All favorites: -0.028
All dogs: -0.018

2009 - present
-116 to -199 = -0.064
-200 to -299 = +0.013
-300 to -399 = -0.042
-400 to -599 = +0.053
-600 and lower = -0.142
All favorites: -0.023
All dogs: -0.025


The more I think about the current hot streak for favorites, the more I'm sure it must be coincidence. There have been other streaks, just not as big, and if you were to flip some decisions like Koscheck, Figueroa, etc., it wouldn't look that much out of normal. It will be business as usual for me unless this continues for a few more events.

[Svino]

don't you love it when you put in a bunch of work, post some new kind of stuff- get no replies- and the 15 posts arguing about minowa.

LOL. I have always have a soft spot for the conspiracy theory that Minowa is secretly the best fighter ever and all his losses are works.

[MMA_scientist]

My theory is that Minowa is the worst fighter in the world, and that all of his wins are works. All evidence points to the super hulk tournament being totally fixed.

[SPX]

One rule I try to follow is to imagine that the favorite is just a little worse in all areas than you think he is, and the underdog is just a little better. If that would give the underdog a decent chance, stay away from steep lines.

I think you pretty much nailed it there.

Ryan Bader (-625) vs. Tito Ortiz
I'm not 100% convinced this line was bad. Maybe Bader just got caught?

The line probably wasn't too far off. I mean, can you really see Tito doing it again?

Poor Tito. At least he did get one more good win before closing out his career.

Brock Larson (-500) vs. Brian Foster
Brock Larson (-500) vs. Mike Pierce
Larson was -500 for three fights in 2009 and he had the good fortune to win one of them. But he didn't just lose both of these fights, he got dominated. LOL Larson.

BOL.

I think the problem here is that he was fighting a couple of guys who were being being severely underestimated. We know now that both Pierce and Foster are pretty beastly.

don't you love it when you put in a bunch of work, post some new kind of stuff- get no replies- and the 15 posts arguing about minowa. IWS sucks so much, I am going to zewkey, catch you guys on the flipflop.

Hey, well I did make a legit reply. But I know what you're saying.

I remember when Ludo (I think) posted that UFC Champs By the Numbers thing or whatever it was called. I thought it was really interesting but apparently no one wanted to talk about it.

[MMA_scientist]

[quoute=Svino]The more I think about the current hot streak for favorites, the more I'm sure it must be coincidence. There have been other streaks, just not as big, and if you were to flip some decisions like Koscheck, Figueroa, etc., it wouldn't look that much out of normal. It will be business as usual for me unless this continues for a few more events. [/quote]

That's what I'm saying. I think it is just an usually long run, but that is bound to happen from time to time with -600 favorites.

[MMA_scientist]

I would have commented on the Champs by the Numbers thing, but I had already seen it on SD and its moment had passed in my mind

[Svino]

Poor Tito. At least he did get one more good win before closing out his career.

That would have been the perfect time for him to retire. But these guys always get their late career win and then they're like, "See! I've still got it! Another run at the title!" Now we have to watch him get beat up by Griffin and close with a 3-fight losing streak.

[SPX]

I would have commented on the Champs by the Numbers thing, but I had already seen it on SD and its moment had passed in my mind

If you're not part of the solution, then you're part of the problem.

[SPX]

BTW Svino, all this stuff seriously is interesting. Thanks for doing the work.

I do wonder how the results would be different though if you picked the best line, or the average line, instead of the closing lines. I mean, I know I bet a lot of these guys at lines that were much better than what you're using.

[Luke]

This shits too much like Stats class.............going to zewkey also.