UFC 146

[poopoo333]

Gonna bet Struve if he gets to +110 or so. He already said his gameplan is to get the fight down to the ground. If Struve can avoid being KO'd off the bat he will get the fight to the mat and get the sub imo. If Pat Barry took him down easily, got mount, and almost the sub...I think Struve can figure something out.

[SPX]

My biggest concern is Lavar's size. He's just a big motherfucker and I could see him going in there and blasting Struve before Struve has a chance to do much.

[ctm0808]

Lavar is a big motherfucker but I think struve will be able to trip him down. He was training to fight mark hunt and I doubt he was planning to stand with him. He's got a couple nice wins in a row now, hopefully he doesn't fuck around and actively pursues a TD of some kind.

[SPX]

That could be the case.

If he DOES get Lavar down then I think he will get the sub. He won't fuck around like Barry.

[poopoo333]

As it turned out, Lavar Johnson is every bit as exciting for me as Hunt was. Credit to him for stepping up to the plate. All in all, Lavar is a big, strong guy who likes to stand and punch, and he's also far easier to take down than Hunt. I truly believe Mark has better takedown defense than Lavar, and that makes it a fun fight for me.

That's what leads me to believe Struve will look for the TD and won't fight stupid.

[poopoo333]

->

[poopoo333]

Haven't touched the undercard yet, since they have not opened on Bookmaker or 5 dimes.

Some thoughts:

Elkins +300 might be worth a small bet, but Brandao will probably fuck him up on the feet. It really depends on how good Elkins' wrestling really is, I will have to look at that fight a bit before I bet anything.

I thought the Hardy/Ludwig line would be flopped around, with Hardy being around +110 or so. Hardy is going to have a shit load of pressure on him, and I think Ludwig is the better striker. However, Hardy might show up as NCAA Hardy and do lots of clinching/get a TD here and there. The thing that concerns me about Ludwig is that his cardio is usually really shitty, but he didn't seem to have that problem at all against Amir.

Dollaway +140? Thought he would be +110 at best. I've been watching interviews and stuff with Mayhem, he seems in a pretty good place. Has been taking his training/diet real seriously, says since he has been working with K Sos on his diet he has been feeling great/weight cut won't be tough at all.

Volkman/Sass is hard to call. I think Volkman should be able to stifle him, but if I bet him I don't feel like having a heart attack everytime Sass goes for a sub for 15 minutes straight.

[SPX]

Dropped half a unit on Dollaway at +140 and half a unit on Pineda at +175.

[poopoo333]

I don't know shit about Pineda....tell me about Pineda vs Brown

[MMA_scientist]

Elkins or nothing at that line. I may even bet Elkins just because Brandao hasn't proven anything yet. He will probably get stopped, but Brandao has a rep for gassing out after round one.

I definitely feel like Ludwig should be the favorite here. Hardy is probably looking for some takedowns, but he is not a very good grappler himself... so I don't know what he is hoping to do. Still, probably no bet for me.

I think Dollaway can win for sure. I could see Miller subbing him, but I could also see CB winning a decision. If they give a prop there, I might take CB by decision, which is really his only out here.

Was hoping to see Texeira as an underdog... so much for that.

[SPX]

I've only seen Pineda once and that was when he triangle armbarred Mackens Semerzier. I thought it was a pretty impressive performance. And with the way Brown has been fighting lately--losing to Nunes, losing to Yayha, losing a round to Phan--I could see Pineda finding a way to win it. But I'm not super confident or anything, hence only half a unit.

[SPX]

I think Dollaway can win for sure. I could see Miller subbing him, but I could also see CB winning a decision. If they give a prop there, I might take CB by decision, which is really his only out here.

Dollaway really disappointed me against Hamman. He had that fight locked up and then just gave it away.

[poopoo333]

Do you guys have any thoughts on Nelson/Herman? In my mind I see Herman winning from the outside, but Nelson will put him up against the cage/tire him out/get him down. Herman has poor cardio/grappling, so I think Nelson will be able to grind a win out. Won't be surprised to see this fight go the distance to be honest.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't think Nelson will be able to take and hold Herman down reliably. Herman was a D1 wrestler fwiw... but I do think Nelson has him beat wherever the fight happens. I think Nelson wins standing, and if it does go down, Nelson wins there too. He also has better cardio.

[SPX]

Like you say PP, I figure Nelson will just smother him for 3 rounds.