UFC 152

[SPX]

Yeah, while I expect Benavidez to win, I don't think it's a lock.

And NOT DJ ITD is probably the lockiest lock of all locks.

[edman5555]

Yeah I just worry about DJ's speed. I would think it is possible for him to out point JB on the feet. He should also have the wrestling to keep it there. That said, JB seems to have some power and super slick submissions. It seems like its anyones game.I really doubt DJ wins inside the distance though.

[SPX]

I like JoeB to win but I don't like the line. If he was -200 though I'd be on him.

[edman5555]

Big on Benavidez? I think it should be interesting. They both hold an advantage over pretty much all their previous opponents in that they are smaller and faster. I wonder how that will play out in this one. I guess Joe-B probably has the power and the submission advantage. That should be good for him. I would be a little afraid to touch this one though due the speed issue. DJ might be the better wrestler as well.. That said, JB by guillotine.

[BIGDAY]

Completely agree!

[SPX]

Man I am itchin for a UFC card!

Me too. This gap is just too big.

The one positive though is that every time this happens and there are 3 weeks or so between cards you really feel kind of refreshed and reinvigorated for MMA by the time the machine starts rolling again.

[BIGDAY]

Man I am itchin for a UFC card!

I'm hosting a crap ton of friends over for 152.

I threw the jones/Belfort itd prop in a couple open parlays. Love Benavidez like most also.

[poopoo333]

-530 has value.

[poopoo333]

Vitor Belfort vs Jon Jones - 5 rounds - UFC 152 propositions
Sat 9/22		1003 Belfort/Jones goes 5 round distance		+350
11:00PM		1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance		-530

[poopoo333]

I would look at his fights more to see how well he does defending sub's. I think he got cracked in the Erick Silva fight before getting subbed so I wouldnt hold that against him as much as I would for a straight submission.

Naw, Brenneman shot, failed, and just froze and let Silva take his back. As for defending subs/bad positions watch Roberts fight (wasn't a big threat but gives an idea) and Story fight (3rd round)

[edman5555]

Vinny sucks, but he might be able to beat Igor. Definitely won't bet the favorite in that fight. I think Igor will open as a slight fave.

I like Oliviera to beat Swanson. I think he is better standing and on the ground, and he has the takedowns to decide if he wants to go down.

I feel like Dunham should be better than Grant, but Dunham has not been as impressive as he once was. I probably won't bet that one, I just don't trust Dunham any more. He does have a very good solid jj game, but Grant seems a little faster and more explosive to me.

I think Brenneman will get it done, but man did he look horrible against Rumble. Makes me really wary of betting on him.

Hettes has looked like an absolute phenom so far... Brimmage is probably the hardest puncher he has fought yet though. I agree he should dominate, but I think his hype will make his line unbettable. I wouldn't take him past -350 personally.

Rumble is massive and extremely powerful on the feet. He also has good wrestling. That is a tough fight for a wrestler like Brenneman. I think Noke is the better striker. I agree with poopoo about his injuries hindering him and I would have to wonder how that affects his training. His pay rate isn't so high that I would think he is sitting on a pile of cash and would not have to take fights soley for the money. That doesn't mean he isnt healed though. Either way, I think Brennaman could take him down. What I actually worry about is Noke's BJJ. Brennamen would probably be ok. I would look at his fights more to see how well he does defending sub's. I think he got cracked in the Erick Silva fight before getting subbed so I wouldnt hold that against him as much as I would for a straight submission.

Hettes is a badass. If Brimage really does have porous takedown defense he is probably fucked.

I see why you lean towards Pokrajac. Vinny IIRC is not that quick on the feet. I haven't seen him fight in a while though. If he can't take Pokrajac down I would be really suprised if he can outstrike him. Its a tough one to call though because a guy like Vinny can probably slap on a sub pretty well in the heat of things. Better than Pok can defend anyways. That is obvious.

Hamill Versus Matyushenko...: Hamil coming back for a payday? My first reaction was to pick Matyushenko but I think that is only because Hamil looked so disinterested in his last fight. Vladdy is also pretty good. I think they both pack some power in their hands and the wrestling might cancel out. No idea who to pick here. I think it will depend on what kind of Hamil shows up.

[MMA_scientist]

Vinny sucks, but he might be able to beat Igor. Definitely won't bet the favorite in that fight. I think Igor will open as a slight fave.

I like Oliviera to beat Swanson. I think he is better standing and on the ground, and he has the takedowns to decide if he wants to go down.

I feel like Dunham should be better than Grant, but Dunham has not been as impressive as he once was. I probably won't bet that one, I just don't trust Dunham any more. He does have a very good solid jj game, but Grant seems a little faster and more explosive to me.

I think Brenneman will get it done, but man did he look horrible against Rumble. Makes me really wary of betting on him.

Hettes has looked like an absolute phenom so far... Brimmage is probably the hardest puncher he has fought yet though. I agree he should dominate, but I think his hype will make his line unbettable. I wouldn't take him past -350 personally.

[poopoo333]

I agree about Hettes/Brimage, though not to the tune of -600. Brimage surprised everyone against Maximo Blanco. I'd like to take Hettes in this one, but I'm really hoping to get him at -300 or better.

I'm hoping to get a good line on Igor. Y'all remember when Vinny was 2-4 in MMA and was getting cut by the UFC after losing a decision to Eliot Marshall? I'm not sure if he's that much better now or if he's just been fighting not-so-great fighters. But I do favor Igor here. Line predictions?

Brimage did surprise everybody against Blanco, but it will be a completely different fight. That was a pure striking match IIRC and it was close at that. Also a very slow paced fight. Basically the exact opposite of what Brimage will be facing against Hettes. Hettes will not be -300 imo, he has crazy hype after the Phan fight combined with his actual skillset match up against Brimage. I really will be surprised to see Hettes open under -450.

Yeah, I believe Igor is going to win. I just don't like his tendency to put himself in bad positions on the mat. I don't think Vinny is that great in MMA...his recent run has been against foreign fighters in M1 that aren't that good...and he doesn't look great in any of them. I won't be surprised to see the line open close, like -120/-110 Igor. It really does depend who opens it though...but Igor as a dog would be great

[Mr. IWS]

Awesome info Poopoo!

[SPX]

Must be nice to be one of the eight people that have Fuel.

Speaking of cable, my TV is not detecting the signal from my cable box anymore. I think I'm just going to go turn that shit in. It's too expensive.