UFC 154

[SPX]

Well . . . you're welcome.

I actually think Kampmann might be a better grappler than he is a striker. He has very good wrestling AND submission skills.

Most importantly though, he is a true mixed martial artist. Most fighters lack one thing or another. Maybe they're good at striking and wrestling, but they have a hard time finishing subs. Or they're good at wrestling and subs, but they're striking is below average. Or they can strike and are good at subs when they can get into position to get them, but they struggle with guys who have strong wrestling ability.

I wouldn't call Kampmann EXCELLENT at anything . . . but he's very good at everything. Truly well-rounded. And he's one of those guys who people consistently underrate, but I understand why. He's one of those guys where pretty much in any fight you think there's an equal chance he could win OR lose.

He was a favorite against Daley and Diego and lost. And he was a dog against Paulo Thiago (big dog! WTF?), Story, Ellenberger and Alves (at least by fight time) and he won all of those.

So against Hendricks? Shit. Who knows?

[SPX]

Speaking of Diego, where the fuck did he go? I saw on Wiki that he apparently said in August that he was going back to lightweight but I haven't heard anything about any prospective opponents.

And speaking of fighters who say they're going to drop weight and then drop out of sight, I haven't heard anything lately about Guida either.

[poopoo333]

Tom Lawlor vs Francis Carmont: Before looking at this fight I thought I would end up leaning Lawlor...but after watching the vids I think this fight is going to be pretty competitive with the edge to Carmont. They are both decent all around with decent striking/grappling. Carmont does end up on his back a bit from what I have seen and Lawlor can get TDs of his own. Lawlor's boxing is fairly crisp as well, but I think Carmont will be able to handle it fine. None of these guys are great at one thing, but I think Carmont is going to edge out a decision here. Lawlor may be able to win round one by getting on top, but he tends to tire and Carmont hasn't shown any conditioning issues. In Carmont's last two fights, he ended up on his back and was in some pretty bad positions/subs, but in those last 2 fights, both opponents gassed after getting the upper hand and Carmont took over/got the finish. Lawlor is another guy with conditioning issues that can end up being a part of this trend. I do think Carmont's line will be steep, so I do not want to lay anything too heavy on him. Lawlor +250 or better might be worth a small bet because he can steal rounds with takedowns, but his gas tank is a huge factor. Ideally I would like Carmont to come out close to -200 and I'd like to parlay him with GSP. Lawlor's ability to steal rounds with takedowns of his own does worry me however.


Thoughts on this fight?

[edman5555]

In the shields fight kampmann kept dropping for guillotines when shields shot on him. I think that is why he was taken down so easily. He was winning the steiking exchanges in that too iirc.

[poopoo333]

Cyrille Diabate vs Chad Griggs: This is probably the most relevant fight of the card. It definitely deserves to be on the main card over a fight such as Mark Bocek vs Rafael Dos Anjos. Anyways, these guys aren't too great. Diabate is the more experienced fighter, better striker, and probably won't be at a HUGE grappling disadvantage because Griggs really isn't the type of guy that is a grinding type of fighter on the mat. I think Diabate should probably take this...however, he is chinny, has cardio issues, and has trouble with guys that take him down (something Griggs will probably try and do in this fight). Griggs is coming down from HW, but he was never a huge HW..he only weighed in at 228 lbs against Travis Browne at UFC 145. I would only play Griggs here, but only if he is a decent underdog. Also, I think this fight ends inside the distance, so if the price is right..I think that may be worth a look/bet too.

[poopoo333]

[edman5555]

Cyrille Diabate vs Chad Griggs: This is probably the most relevant fight of the card. It definitely deserves to be on the main card over a fight such as Mark Bocek vs Rafael Dos Anjos. Anyways, these guys aren't too great. Diabate is the more experienced fighter, better striker, and probably won't be at a HUGE grappling disadvantage because Griggs really isn't the type of guy that is a grinding type of fighter on the mat. I think Diabate should probably take this...however, he is chinny, has cardio issues, and has trouble with guys that take him down (something Griggs will probably try and do in this fight). Griggs is coming down from HW, but he was never a huge HW..he only weighed in at 228 lbs against Travis Browne at UFC 145. I would only play Griggs here, but only if he is a decent underdog. Also, I think this fight ends inside the distance, so if the price is right..I think that may be worth a look/bet too.

Chad Griggs is a lot thicker and stronger than Diabate IIRC. That could aid in the takedowns. He certainly would be at a disadvantage standing. I don't really know how good Chad is on the ground though. For all we know, Diabate will triangle him. Diabate does have almost 30 mma fights.

[edman5555]

Chad Griggs is a lot thicker and stronger than Diabate IIRC. That could aid in the takedowns. He certainly would be at a disadvantage standing. I don't really know how good Chad is on the ground though. For all we know, Diabate will triangle him. Diabate does have almost 30 mma fights.

After thinking about it for a bit, griggs does have big power. It is probably a no bet for me.

[poopoo333]

Although I will probably end up betting Griggs if the price is right....

why are we betting on this fight? These guys are bums.

[poopoo333]

A fighter I really want to bet on this card is Sam Stout.

[SPX]

Why? It's likely to be mostly a stand-up fight. Do you think Stout is that much better of a striker?

[mike]

Stout will probably go for tds lol

[SPX]

Despite getting killed by Hallman, Makdessi has actually shown some decent T3D. Lesser wrestlers were unable to get him down.

That doesn't mean that Stout can get him down but I wouldn't base Makdessi's takedown defense on one fight.

[poopoo333]

Sam Stout > Pat Audinwood in the takedown department. Kyle Watson too, although he didn't really go for TDs.

I'll just say this about this fight and it's just my opinion....Stout -175 would be a good deal.

[SPX]

Stout's got the experience and he's a better than average LW but I don't know about taking him at -175. I might take him at -135 or so.