UFC on FOX 6 January 26th

[poopoo333]

MAIN (FOX, 8 p.m. ET)

• Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson - for flyweight title
• Quinton Jackson vs. Glover Teixeira
• Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis
• Erik Koch vs. Ricardo Lamas

PRELIMINARY (FX, 5 p.m. ET)

• T.J. Grant vs. Matt Wiman
• Clay Guida vs. Hatsu Hioki
• Ryan Bader vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
• David Mitchell vs. Simeon Thoresen
• Shawn Jordan vs. Mike Russow
• Pascal Krauss vs. Mike Stumpf

PRELIMINARY (Facebook, 4 p.m. ET)

• Rafael Natal vs. Sean Spencer
• Josh Janousek vs. Michael Kuiper

[poopoo333]

Shawn Jordan vs Mike Russow: I was real high on Shawn Jordan before the Kongo fight, however, Jordan had a ridiculous gameplan in that fight and did not fight like his usual self. When his athleticism and brute strength was not working in the clinch, he just seemed lost. Russow should be better technically in the clinch but I don't think it stays there much. This fight should be contested on the feet where I give Shawn Jordan the slight edge. imo, this is almost a coin flip fight so I think I would only consider betting a medium sized underdog. Also, I would bet the over or the distance prop in this. These are two durable heavyweights with questionable gas tanks but are very tough...since it's a heavyweight fight I could see the distance line being around +180 or better. The distance play is my favorite for this (unless one of the fighters is like +200)


Ryan Bader vs Vladimir Matyushenko: Ryan Bader is going to run away with this one...he is younger, better wrestler, better striker, bigger, stronger, more athletic, and in his prime. Matyushenko has very rudimentary striking, is fairly slow, and does not have the takedowns to get Bader to the mat and keep him there for much time. There is the small chance that Bader gets clipped, but I really do not see an out for Matyushenko. The only advantage that Matyushenko has is experience..but when does that really matter? Bader has been in big fights and his lack of experience (compared to Matyushenko) won't have an impact on this fight. Bader's line won't be bettable straight (I would bet him straight to -300) so I am going to have to find some bets to parlay him with.

Clay Guida vs Hatsu Hioki: I still have not seen Lamas vs Hioki...I want to watch that fight first (and his fight vs Roop again) before giving an opinion on this fight.

TJ Grant vs Matt Wiman: At first, I really liked TJ Grant here. His overall game is coming around at LW and he has shown solid T3D and grappling at lightweight. However, Matt Wiman is a relentless top control guy that could definitely grind Grant out here. I can see it now: I bet on Grant, and after round 1 when I realize Wiman is getting takedowns and being effective against the cage...I will feel like a moron for betting against a fighter with Wiman's style. I am going to watch a little more film, but I have a feeling I am going to bet Wiman by decision at +165ish and a small bet on him straight. This should cancel out my Grant by decision bet. I am really leaning Wiman here now...but I gotta watch more vids.

Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis: I do not have a read on this fight at all. This is a tough fight to call for me.

Glover Teixeira vs Rampage: Glover is going to win this fight. That is all. This is a huge fade over Rampage. After today's conference call I already see what's going to happen: After the fight, we are gonna hear "I WAS INJURED! I FIGHT FOR YOU GUYS! UFC DON'T PAY ME! THEY DON'T LET ME WEAR REEBOK IN DA CAGE! I FIGHT FOR YOU GUYS! HE JUST TAKE ME DOWN! I WANNA STAND AND BANG! BUT HE JUST TAKE ME DOWN! I'M DONE WITH THE UFC! IMMA DO MOVIES! IMMA BOX! IMMA KICK BOX! IMMA DO PRO WRASSLIN! YA KNOW WUT I'M SAYIN?"


Demetrious Johnson vs John Dodson: I think Mighty Mouse has the edge everywhere in this fight except for power. Dodson packs some power in his punches so I can see him staggering Mighty Mouse and stealing some rounds. This has potential to be a very close fight, so I do not feel confident betting Mighty Mouse at -220. I am not going to bet Dodson because I don't expect him to win this fight. I am going to bet the distance prop. It's -260 right now and I am waiting to see where that goes. I would bet it up to -350 to be honest.


I have to look at the rest of the fights with fighters nobody knows.

[mike]

Wiman's td isnt top notch and i think he will have a tough time taking Grant down. He is relentless with it though and can wall n stall but Grant looks strong at LW too. I'll stay away from Bader bc I think he has a bad chin and isnt a better striker than Mayoshinko.

[SPX]

All those thoughts are stupid.

[poopoo333]

All those thoughts are stupid.

Not my fault you think Rampage is gonna win and that you think Matushenko is top 3

[edman5555]

I like Cerrone to beat Pettis. I think his wrestling and striking are better than Pettis.

[edman5555]

He dropped Melvin, Dropped Dennis siver, tko'd Charles Olivieria and dominated Jeremy Stephens. Stephens fight with Pettis was somewhat close.

[SPX]

I also favor Cerrone, but I really think this one could go either way. Remember that Pettis beat Bendo. Narrowly, but he did it.

If I can get Cerrone at even-ish odds though I'll probably do it.

[SPX]

After today's conference call I already see what's going to happen. . .

What happened at the press conference?

[edman5555]

I also favor Cerrone, but I really think this one could go either way. Remember that Pettis beat Bendo. Narrowly, but he did it.

If I can get Cerrone at even-ish odds though I'll probably do it.

Yeah he did but I think something was up with that. If they rematched I feel like Bendo would completely dominate him. Guida took Pettis down for 3 rounds and Bendo outwrestled Guida. I think Pettis got lucky in that one.

[poopoo333]

Pettis did not get lucky. Bendo has just improved dramatically.

[edman5555]

Think so? It was also a very close fight. That kick at the end won him the fight. One crazy kick. Pettis is talented, I guess I was underrating him a bit. That said I feel like Cerrone is a better striker. He has a background in muay thai/kickboxing. 30 fights. I would think his fundamentals should be better than Pettis. At approximately even odds I like him for a unit or two.

[Luke]

I just cant get Cerrone getting manhandled by Diaz out of my head. Like Pettis to win and set up a rematch with Bendo

[SPX]

I actually HOPE Pettis wins. So that works for me.

[edman5555]

I just cant get Cerrone getting manhandled by Diaz out of my head. Like Pettis to win and set up a rematch with Bendo

For whatever its worth Diaz is pretty damn good and Cerrone claimed that he was worn out from a hectic schedule in that fight. From September 2010 to December 2011 he had 7 fights. He won 6.