UFC on FOX 6 January 26th

[Thewisemann]

I consider this a fairly even fight, small edge to cowboy. With Pettis layoff/injuries, bug edge to Cerrone.

[Ludo]

Yeah, I was hoping for -200 or better.

Looks like everyone is opening it at -225 for Guida.

[Vandelay]

Didnt cerrone use wrestling against that babyfaced hick that went to bellator...Horodecki? also against paul kelly?

[Ludo]

Didnt cerrone use wrestling against that babyfaced hick that went to bellator...Horodecki? also against paul kelly?

I remember Horodecki taking Cerrone down, which is when he got triangled.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't recall Cerrone ever going for TDs a lot. Pettis wrestled up Stephens, maybe that is what you were thinking of. Anyway, Pettis has a dangerous ground game on his back.

[edman5555]

Yeah Pettis is pretty dangerous off his back but so is Cerrone. It kinda makes me feel somewhat safe if I were to have a bet on Cerrone because their ground games are so similar. Cerrone must know how to defend against a lanky guard player like Pettis.

I like how Guidas line got better but I am still nervous about betting him against Hioki. I feel like Hioki could sub him. Scientist, What do you think about that?

Rafael Natals line looks pretty good. I did a lot of research on his opponent. I posted it a while back if anyone misssed that. I will probably play him. I imagine Natals line will get worse but I am hoping that headkick ko loss will stop people from betting on him. That and he is not very famous.

Mike Russow against shawn jordan. I don't know what to make of this one. I have to watch Jordan fight Chieck. Jordan is stocky and explosive. I remember him doing a backflip in the octagon. I don't underestimate Russow anymore though. I did that once a long time ago and I ate dick.

Baders line is approaching bettability. I still don't like it though. He's always been slow and Tito dropped his ass. Vlad is a very very good wrestler. Soveit Champion. He's old as hell but he has always been a solid fighter. He's got some decent power in his hands and the ability to keep the fight standing. I think Bader wins but I would be nervous laying -500.

Tough card.

[Vandelay]

Donald Cerrone vs. Paul Kelly
Round 1
Referee Steve Mazzagatti is in charge of this lightweight matchup. Kelly throws a one-two instead of touching gloves and Cerrone plows him down with a double-leg. Cerrone gets his head clear of a loose guillotine attempt and moves to side control on Kelly. They work back to the feet and Kelly drills a knee in the clinch. He leaps forward and pops Cerrone with a nice left hand, opening up a cut beneath Cerrone’s right eye. Cerrone puts a straight left on Kelly’s forehead, which Kelly slaps, telling the “Cowboy” to do it again. Cerrone ducks under a looping right from Kelly and slaps a nice kick to the Brit’s body. Solid overhand right connects for Kelly this time. Cerrone times a short Superman punch from Kelly and brings him down, then moves into half-guard. Kelly has both of Cerrone’s arms tied up, not allowing much. Cerrone gets loose in the last 20 seconds and busts Kelly up with short elbows, opening up a cut on the Englishman’s right eyebrow.

Mike Whitman scores the round 10-9 Kelly
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Cerrone
Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Cerrone

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves to start the second. Kelly flurrying with punching combos and leaping knees as Cerrone goes to work with low kicks. Cerrone connects with a left kick to the body-right hook combo. Left jabs getting through for Cerrone now. He drives forward and puts Kelly on his back, but gets caught in a guillotine. It’s not tight, and the Cowboy pops loose and gets to half-guard, then mount. Kelly eats a few punches before giving up his back, where Cerrone locks up a tight body triangle with 1:50 still on the clock. Kelly, whose cut has opened back up, defends well at first, but a few punches from the back soften him up. Cerrone whips his left arm around Kelly’s throat and rolls him over, squeezing tight. Kelly taps the mat at the 3:48 mark of the second round.



DONALD CERRONE VS. CHRIS HORODECKI

Round 1
Herb Dean is the ref for this lightweight contest. Horodecki fires a head kick off the bat, then begins swinging away with combinations as Cerrone looks to tie up. Horodecki steps in and takes an inside thigh kick to the cup. Horodecki recovers quickly, but he’s already cut around the inside of his right eye. Cerrone catches Horodecki coming in, gets an underhook and bulls Horodecki down. Cerrone looks to hop into mount, but Horodecki escapes to his feet. Right hand from Horodecki lands over the top. Cerrone going to work with kicks to the outside of Horodecki’s left leg, then ties up and lands a knee to the breadbasket. Cerrone steps in with an uppercut, eats a leg kick from Horodecki, then hits the “Polish Hammer” with a stiff jab. Nice punch to the body by Horodecki, who catches a telegraphed kick from Cerrone. Horodecki trips Cerrone down with 90 seconds left in the round, but “Cowboy” is quickly back on his feet. Cerrone trips Horodecki now, but winds up on his back, where he tries for an armbar that doesn’t come. Back on the feet, Horodecki slaps a left kick to the ribs of Cerrone, who plows Horodecki down and takes his back as the round ends.

Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Cerrone
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Cerrone
Mike Whitman scores the round 10-9 Cerrone

Round 2
Horodecki tries another head kick early, but this one is easily blocked by Cerrone. Horodecki with a takedown and Cerrone quickly gets an omoplata. “Cowboy” moves to the side briefly, then back to guard. From there, he locks up a triangle, but it’s not tight enough to force the tap. Nonetheless, Horodecki isn’t going anywhere, even as Cerrone releases the hold, adjusts, and reapplies it. Finally, after about a minute in the position, Cerrone rolls to his left and squeezes, increasing the pressure on Horodecki’s throat. Horodecki is forced to submit to the triangle choke at the 2:43 mark.

[Luke]

I think if we cant agree , we should just all pass on the fight

[edman5555]

I think Natal is a decent bet. You guys should look into that one and give me your opinion. His opponent is taking the fight on short notice, moving up a weight class and has less experience. He is supposedly a good boxer though and Natal has been dropped a few times.

[edman5555]

Natal is a serious champ in BJJ according to his ufc profile. I didn't realize that.

[Thewisemann]

Cerrone went for takedowns vs Varner

[SPX]

Cerrone did take Kelly down. Why? Because he was getting worked on the feet. I don't know why two judges gave the 1st round to Cerrone in that fight.

But yeah, he does sometimes take guys down. I don't think he'll be able to take Pettis down though and, if he does, I don't think he can keep him down for any real length of time.

[SPX]

Tough card.

I agree. This card sucks dick for betting.

I like DJ . . . but would it be a shock for Dodson to beat him?
I like Guida . . . but Hioki has a lot of ways to win.
I have no idea about Cerrone and Pettis.
I like Bader . . . but do you really want to lay 5:1 on a guy who recently got beat by Tito?

[SPX]

I did go ahead and put half a unit on Shawn Jordan, though.

[Thewisemann]

Kelly sucker punched him