UFC 157

[edman5555]

So should Overeem. Hopefully Faber doesn't go out there and try to guard his chin with his face instead of his hands.

[Thewisemann]

no shit. Im still kicking myself in the ass for not putting more on Bigfoot live betting.

[SPX]

Even at -420 I think there might be value in Mendes.

[edman5555]

Manny is no slouch.

[SPX]

Yeah, but he's also not great either. He's not the kind of dude who would be in title contention in the current age of the FW division, while Mendes definitely is.

Remember Manny lost to Tyson Griffin right before Griffin washed out.

[edman5555]

Yeah your probably right. Mendes and Faber are probably good safe plays.

[poopoo333]

Mendes will win. Manny sucks

[edman5555]

What do you guys think of Machida/Dan? I think Machida takes it I don't want to lay the odds of him as a favorite. Obviously he isnt koing dan. He could submit him though so IMO that kinda leaves out prop bets on this one. Dan could obviosuly knock him out but Machida is pretty hard to hit. Tough one to bet. Dan will have been out for about 1.25 years by the time he fights. Crazy. That can't help him. I think his Cardio is somewhat suspect to begin with but he throws bombs and can't be putaway so he usually makes it through the later rounds. He's almost to dangerous to bet against.

[edman5555]

What do you guys think about Rousey? I think she is just a step above all the other women out there for the most part. I was thinking of a parlay Rousey ITD/Chad Mendes/Urijah Faber.

[poopoo333]

I love Machida, just waiting to see where his line goes.

[edman5555]

I also like Cub Swanson over Poirier though I do worry about Poirier being able to get him down and submit him. Knocking out Roop, Pearson and Oliviera in succession is pretty impressive though. They are all pretty decent.

I am thinking about Che mills over Matthew riddle. It's mostly a bet against Riddle. I just don't think he is very good. I don't know much about Che mills though. I vaguely remember him taking Duane Ludwig down a couple times and Ludwig getting injured. I just don't know if he is good enough to beat Riddle.

[SPX]

I definitely favor Machida, but like you say Edmann, Dan has that KO power. Machida was KOd by Shogun, so we know it's possible to shut his lights off. I think the most likely result is Machida dances around outpointing him for three rounds, though.

[SPX]

And I a) don't see Rousey losing and b) don't see that fight going 5 rounds, so Rousey ITD is also probably a safe bet.

[Ludo]

Dan is pretty much too dangerous to bet against right now. Being out from a knee injury or not he just hits too hard and has made a habit out of dropping the bomb on better strikers than himself lately to bet against. His cardio is what has Me hesitant to bet him at this point. Even a three round fight could see him huffing and puffing by the end of two rounds with someone like Machida.

[poopoo333]

The one factor I am considering in the Machida/Hendo fight is Machida's takedowns (usually trips takedowns) vs Hendo's not so good T3D. I think if Machida goes for TDs and get on top, Hendo will tire quickly since he will be forced to grapple. However, Machida might not want to get in close with Hendo because of the H Bomb, so he might try to stay outside and throw kicks and pick him apart. Machida used to be predictable a long time ago, but now he seems very inconsistent with his gameplans/style of fighting. It's hard to bank on Machida doing the "smart thing" in this fight. If this weren't the case, I'd be betting pretty heavy on Machida but I am only going to bet on him to win 1-2 units.