UFC 161

[edman5555]

Pierson just made a statement about how he feels he is finally getting over the ufc jitters and coming into his own as a fighter. Feeling comfortable in the octagon and all that. I think Kenny obviously has a shot and dog odds are nice but I thought I'd let ya know. Pierson could look better than usual. He's a good greco wrestler as well. Kennys american college wrestling might be better though. I have no idea.

[poopoo333]

I like:

Shawn Jordan
Stipe Miocic for a small play at those odds
Kenny Robertson small
James Krause (fading Stout, he sucks)
Alexis Davis

[edman5555]

I like Shields at dog odds quite a bit. I bet Akiyama over him because I thought great TDD would beat Shields, only to have Shields win solidly on the feet. It could happen here, too. His striking has been getting a lot better. Woodley is no Ellenberger.

Do you have an opinion on jimmo/pokrajac svino?

[edman5555]

I didnt see Shields vs Akiyama but the play by plays gave it to Akiyama 29-28 if memory serves me correctly. Shields won it 30-27. I guess I should probably watch that. Either way I think Woodley is overrated. He usually gasses at the end of the fight and tries to wall and stall. He is almost kind of like shields ironically. He probably is more explosive standing but I think Shields has that extra added edge when it comes to submissions. I don't know if he can make the work here. Either way he isnt a bad bet at plus odds.

I just watched Jimmo versus Sokodjou. It was in a ring which is smaller and probably helped sokodjou with the wrestling. It was probably the most boring fight I have ever seen. Jimmo seems to have turned it up since coming into the ufc. I remember him mentioning something about trying to bring it a little harder in the ufc. In mfc he was just a karate counterstriker. Kinda like Machida back in the day. Thats what makes me want to beleive Jimmo is going to bust out with some awesomeness at some point. He is just like Machida in that he comes from a high level karate background but he is missing the Black belt in bjj that machida has.

Again, Jimmo claims an injury during his camp stopped him from being able to train and caused him to gas against Te huna. I think I will end up betting Jimmo, hopefully i can get a decent line on him. Igors brawler style in dangerous but Jimmo is not the type of guy to get involved in a brawl. He is a karate based counterstriker for the most part. That seems like a good style for fighting a brawler. I am hoping 5dimes will make the lines a little bit better by fight day like they usually do. If I can get jimmo close to -200 that would be awesome.

[Svino]

I like Shields at dog odds quite a bit. I bet Akiyama over him because I thought great TDD would beat Shields, only to have Shields win solidly on the feet. It could happen here, too. His striking has been getting a lot better. Woodley is no Ellenberger.

[SPX]

Crawl down the stairs . . . damn. How did you get UP the stairs in the first place? And what kind of computer are you using that doesn't have Windows? You on a tablet or something? Or are you one of those Mac fags?

As for Roy/Miocic, like I said before, I think Roy will take it and would be pretty surprised if he doesn't. Roy can't beat the top guys in the division but he beats most everyone else. I have about 2.5u on him. Might put more.

[edman5555]

I am thinking about placing fairly decent sized bets on Roy nelson, john maguire and maybe jimmo and then doing some parlays with them. I think they all win.

Jimmo just stated in an interview that he went into the te huna fight with an injury from training camp and thats why his cardio sucked.

Jimmo comes from a high level karate background like machida does. He has always had that sort of reserved point fighting style but he doesn't really seem to get hit a lot. I think he is bigger and stronger than Pokrajac as well. Pok's wrestling doesn't seem to be overwhelming either.

I also took Krause by decision at 5.5 to 1 for .33u. Seemed like a good deal. He will be a lot larger than Stout.

Maguire is pretty good. He fought at 185 before. He even fought Tom "kong" watson and gave him a good fight, he took him down for half the fight before getting tko'd. He is working with Mike Dolce to make 155. He said he only had to cut something like 6-7 pounds to make welterweight. I think he is a really tough guy and a good grappler. I have to watch some tape on him though. He did well at welterweight and his opponent hasn't really done that well at lightweight and is coming off a long layoff.

I can't watch tape until i can go downstairs where my computer with windows is. I will probably have to crawl down the fucking stairs because of my legs but I will do it. I am committed to watching tape now. I will be off from work for a couple of months so I am trying to make the best of it.

Anyways, Stipe Miocic vs Roy Nelson. Anyone think I am crazy for going big on Roy here?

[edman5555]

I think the dog has value either side. Shields is hard to underestimate. I wouldn't be suprised if he could pull a sub on woodley, or outwrestle him for a close decision. Woodley tends to gas in round three IIRC. Jake has had the same issue at 170 though.

[MMA_scientist]

Just now saw that Shields is +160. I was thinking I might bet Woodley, but I was operating under the assumption he was going to be a dog. I will definitely take Shields at +160.

[edman5555]

he is a d1 wrestler.

[SPX]

I guess I'll need to watch some tape. I really don't know anything about Robertson.

[edman5555]

pierson isnt bad but either is robertson.

[SPX]

Anyone looked at the Pierson/Robertson fight yet? Pierson has looked pretty good against everyone who's not top 10 in the division.

[Ludo]

I realize Igor isn't as talented as Te Huna, but the skillset is virtually the same. Jimmo obviously has problems with guys who can mix up heavy hands and wrestling, and unless he can tag Igor coming in and actually finish it he very well could lose the fight.

[SPX]

I like Jimmo, but I thought he lost to Sokoudjou just a few years ago. So really, the line is pretty fucking crazy to me.