UFC 162

[edman5555]

Yeah I was thinking something similar. Ill probably stay away. I am thinking I will stay away from Munoz as well. Clear paths to victory for Boetsche.

So far I like, Barboza over Oliviera, Mike Pierce of Mitchell, Edgar over Oliviera, Leben over Craig, and Anderson Silva over that other guy.


What do you think of Craig vs Leben? Who wins and what do you see as the opening line?

[Vandelay]

Barboza and Pierce will both have high lines. Pierces last fight gives pause for concern, but mitchell is a grappler so he will lose.

Leben vs Craig...who cares? Leben looked god awful and is legitimately battle worn. Craig is a nobody.

[MMA_scientist]

Anyone have a link for Kennedy/Jacare?

I like Gracie, but then I don't think Kennedy can nullify him on the ground for more than 30 seconds. That said, Gracie's standup is not great. He does pump the jab though.

[edman5555]

Barboza and Pierce will both have high lines. Pierces last fight gives pause for concern, but mitchell is a grappler so he will lose.

Leben vs Craig...who cares? Leben looked god awful and is legitimately battle worn. Craig is a nobody.

A couple things about Leben. He had a bad alcohol/drug addiction that from what I have read was badly affecting his training and performance. The Brunson fight was a 14 month layoff BTW. That surely affected his cardio. Brunson also came to wrestle from what I read in the play by plays.

Craig has got lucky in his two ufc wins. Natal was beating his ass and Noke blew his knee out during the fight after kicking his ass for one round. Craig is a decent grappler though and he is really tough. Kinda like Leben.

I know this is going to sound lame and you will think I am dumb for believing it but Leben has been putting out training vids. He is now married and living in San Diego. He claims that he isnt out parting and he is training all day. He is now a member of Alliance training center. A really good gym. No long layoff for him this time. I'm thinking he should come out looking good in this.

Leben was high on oxy cotins during the munoz fight. He shouldn't be high on oxy cotins during this fight.

[edman5555]

Anyone have a link for Kennedy/Jacare?

I like Gracie, but then I don't think Kennedy can nullify him on the ground for more than 30 seconds. That said, Gracie's standup is not great. He does pump the jab though.

My thing with the stand up is this. Kennedy has not really shown much in that department either. Gracie is six foot four and Kennedy is listed as five foot eleven. Gracies arms also looked to be very long. He has a real skinny build. That is an advantage. I don't know if its enough of an advantage though. All of Kennedy's knockouts are in regional promotions. Since he made it to strikeforce he has been winning by outwrestling and outgrappling all of his opponents. I am guessing he has no chance with Gracie on the ground.

I'll wait to see Gracies odds. If I can get him at +130 or more I will go a unit, maybe a unit and a half on it. Gracie is the better grappler. He lacks the experience though.

[edman5555]

I changed my mind on siver. Swanson is just too crazy standing. He could easily catch siver and knock him out. He looked great in his recent fights.

I thought about taking oliviera over frankie with 3.5 points but i am pretty certain he cant stop frankie from taking him down and frankies submission defense is probably pretty solid. Standing, oliviera can win for sure.

I will probably take roger gracie with points and chris leben with points if i can get him. Im not sure who will be the dog in that fight. I think it should be craig but leben hasnt looked great in a while so who knows.

[Thewisemann]

Leben will be favored.

[edman5555]

Yeah your right. He will open as the favorite. He could end up the dog at some point. I wonder if 5 dimes will offer points on him or gracie if they are the dog.

My theory on the gracie fight is this. Gracie could sub kennedy. Knndy cant sub gracie. Either one could land a flukey knock out blow but they probably wont. Gracie is going to have a huge reach advantage a la the kevin randleman fight. There is a good chance gracie can outpoint kenndy standing or dominate one round on the ground. He could lose the fight 29 28 but i am banking on him winning at least one round.

H opened as the fav. Kennedy is now the favorite. 5dimes will end up giving one of the 3.5 points most likely. I am just hoping they give it to gracie. They should. If they do, thats a real good bet. Same thing goes for leben. If somehow he ends up the dog. Ill take him with points. He should def be able to win a round and shouldnt get stopped.

[edman5555]

I am looking forward to this card. I think i can make a lot of money. I hope at least.

[edman5555]

Im thinking about playing this 3.5 points thing a lot more. It could be really useful.

[edman5555]

Im thinking about playing this 3.5 points thing a lot more. It could be really useful.

I think the plus 3.5 points could work great on roger gracie. If roger camt submit kennedy there is a reasonable chance he can either outstrike him with his reach for one round or manage to get ahold of tim and use his grappling to get dominant position for one round.

What do you guys think? Can roger outstrike tim? He is about five inches on him.

[Thewisemann]

Gracie +3.5 is probably a winner, but I expect it to be -200 or better.

[edman5555]

Yeah me too. I need to watch some tape on Kennedy. He is a very good wrestler so I have to wonder if Gracie is going to be able to get him down. I could see Kennedy stuffing him for three rounds. I just think its reasonable to think that at some point gracie can get a takedown of some kind. If he can do that and control him on the ground for a minute or two before he gets to his feet he can probably get the round. The standup could go either way IMO. Again I need to watch some tape. My thing is this, Kennedy's arms have gotta be way shorter than Gracie. Gracie can use kicks too because he could care less if Kennedy takes him down.

[edman5555]

Kennedy's strategy is going to have to be out striking Gracie....isn't it?


Watching a vid now. Strikeforce has Kennedy's heigh as 5 foot ten and one half inches. His reach is listed as 74 inches. They have Roger listed as 6 foot 4 and a half inches with a 74 inch reach. So six inch difference in height but the same reach.

[poopoo333]

I'll be on Andrew Craig as an underdog.