UFC Fight Night 29: Shields vs Maia October 9th

[edman5555]

I am sure he will be a favorite. Shields could edge him in the fourth and fifth rounds by out cardio-ing him.

[MMA_scientist]

I am sure he will be a favorite. Shields could edge him in the fourth and fifth rounds by out cardio-ing him.

Historically Shields has pretty shitty cardio at WW.

[edman5555]

That is true. I figure he will aclimate.

[Thewisemann]

Shields may be worth a bet at the current odds. Can Kim Fitch Silva?

[edman5555]

Shields may be worth a bet at the current odds. Can Kim Fitch Silva?

The answer revealed: no he cannot

[Luke]

The answer revealed: no he cannot

That would be correct

[edman5555]

His cardio has looked great at 170. This could be because he isn't having to wrestle larger fighters so it is less work for him. A lot of people are saying Shields is the one that will grind out Maia. I tend to think that Shields doesn't have the best of cardio at 170. Maia should be the better grappler and striker. Don't forget that Shields has almost no shot at finishing this one so even if Maia gasses in round five there is still a very good chance he will get the decision.

I like Joey Beltran to beat Maldanado. Beltran was able to outwrestle Igor Pokrajac. Maldanado has shown somewhat weak takedown defense in the past. Beltran should be able to out wrestle him if he wants to and you would think he will because Maldanado should be the better striker. Another thing to consider, Maldanado has a tendency to beat his opponents by wearing them down with body shots and the Mexicutioner is one of the toughests guys in the ufc. I can't see Maldanado doing that with him.

I'm staying away from Erick Silva vs Kim. Kim has the tools to win but Silva is a finisher.

I like Thiago Silva to probably knock out Hamil. Hamil is a good wrestler but Thiago isn't that bad himself.

I am also on Assuncao. His takedown defense is really good and so is his footwork and striking. I think he is too much to soon for Dillashaw.

Not touching Pierce/PaulHarris. Pierce obviously has the wrestling to stifle PH but those leglocks always make me scared to bet against him.

I also think Hacran Dias takes Rodrgio Damm but I should probably watch some tape on that

[SPX]

I agree that Maia should win here. I don't really like the line, but I imagine he wins the 72% of the time that the line indicates. It's probably more like 80%. Imagine the Internet shit storm if Shields subs him, though. . .

I actually lean toward Moldanado here. I think he'll have the T3D to keep it on the feet and should have the more polished boxing, but you never know with him. He's always in close fights.

Agreed on Thiago Silva. Like with Maia, I don't really like the line, but I may go ahead and pull the trigger on that one.

Normally I would say almost anyone in the UFC beats Damm but Damm has surprised me in his recent fights. I'll probably stay away from that one.

[Luke]

What is so good about Maia that he wins 80% of the time? His striking isnt very good and his TD's and BJJ could be neutralized by Shields wrestling and BJJ

Better question, who has Maia ever beat that Shields wouldnt have?

[SPX]

What is so good about Maia that he wins 80% of the time? His striking isnt very good and his TD's and BJJ could be neutralized by Shields wrestling and BJJ.

Weren't you the one just the other day telling me to bet it even though I said I didn't like the line?

Better question, who has Maia ever beat that Shields wouldnt have?

Which Shields? UFC Shields? If we're talking about UFC Shields then I think there's a good chance he could lose to Fitch for sure and maybe even DHK and Story. And he would definitely lose to Sonnen.

[Luke]

A win over Chael a half decade ago is not the same as a win over him today. Jeremy Horn and Paulo also beat him during that era. Would you favor those two fighters over Shields also?

And I'd favor Shields over everyone else you mentioned.

I'm not saying Maia isnt going to win , but when I think 80% chance of winning I think damn near lock

[SPX]

A win over Chael a half decade ago is not the same as a win over him today. Jeremy Horn and Paulo also beat him during that era. Would you favor those two fighters over Shields also?

Filho beat him two years before that. In fact, he had just beat Filho in the rematch before the Maia fight. And after the Maia fight he went 3-0, brutalizing Dan Miller, dominating Okami, dominating Marquardt and damn near beating Silva.

And I'd favor Shields over everyone else you mentioned.

I'd probably favor Shields over Story and DHK, but I could see those fights going either way. And I would favor Fitch to beat him.

I'm not saying Maia isnt going to win , but when I think 80% chance of winning I think damn near lock

Shields' striking has been a bit surprising of late but I still think Maia is a better striker and I also think he's a better grappler. Shields won't knock him out and won't sub him, and if Maia's better everywhere then it's also unlikely Shields will decision him, so outside of something flukey Maia should win. Hence 80%.

[Luke]

^^^You're nuts. Their wrestling and BJJ are going counteract each other and it's going to end up being a 5 round kickboxing match that by the end you're going to be spazzing because each rd was a close rd.

[SPX]

I could see that being a possibility too. We won't really know until the fight happens. You should know by now that this is a guessing game. There's no point in acting like you've got it all figured out.

[Luke]

I have spoken..../ discussion