UFN 74: Holloway vs Oliveira

**Mr. IWS** · 08-22-2015, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by Luke

Bol! They are kind of nice.

This forum has came a long way. When I started here, you had to HTML your own posts instead of tags

the old phpBB forum!

**SPX** · 08-22-2015, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by HeyBoone

Meh you're still just playing the odds. Even if a guy only has a 10% chance to win by KO that chance is still there. Value is value and if you only make bets that you believe have value and you are a good capper then you will win in the long run. Like Shields will never get a KO but there is still the chance and if you bet him by decision and he winds up getting a KO that could just be the 1/10 (example) outcome of that fight. Just because one thing happens doesn't necessarily mean that your bet was wrong.

You probably know this but it's nice to remember that "shit happens" and you never truly know. Getting burned on shit like that is pretty brutal though.

There are infinite ways a fight can play out and we only ever get to see one of them and we just have to make our best guess as to how those infinite possibilities translate into the final outcome of the fight. At least that's what I say to myself to stop me from pulling my hair out.

I guess, for me, I just have a hard time determining the odds of someone getting a KO or not getting a KO or the fight going to a decision or the fight going over 1.5 rounds and what have you.

Either that or supernatural forces are conspiring against me, which is an explanation I sometimes tend to lean toward.

**SPX** · 08-22-2015, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by HeyBoone

People always talk about "hometown advantage' when it comes to judges and use this to influence their bets. Here is some data I pulled:

From 2014 up until the last event I checked out all of the split decisions in the UFC only. I bring this up because there are a lot of Canadians fighting in Canada this weekend. I personally don't take this into account but some so.

DISCLAIMER: A split decision loser on home turf does not necessarily mean that they got robbed, they could have only won on one judge because of favouritism that didn't quite work out. These stats don't show the full picture because a split decision doesn't mean the loser was robbed every single time, often they are the right decision.

of the 44 fights where there was a clear hometown fighter, in 21 of those fights the winner was the hometown guy. In the other 23 fights the foreigner ended up winning the split decisions.

Obviously there were also unanimous decisions that were terrible decisions but it was just easier to get split decision data from MMADecisions.com and I'm too lazy to do any more.

Here is the raw data I used

->Spoiler Alert!<-

Hmm, that's pretty interesting. I have often wondered how much fighting at home really helps from a judging perspective. According to your data here, it doesn't seem like a lot. Though I'll tell you, down in Brazil, it really seem at times like judges lose their minds.

**Luke** · 08-22-2015, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by SPX

Hmm, that's pretty interesting. I have often wondered how much fighting at home really helps from a judging perspective. According to your data here, it doesn't seem like a lot. Though I'll tell you, down in Brazil, it really seem at times like judges lose their minds.

Khabib 30-27 x 3 against Tibau in Brazil would say there's no Brazil bias. I really don't think there is a bias. Its just something people say to explain loses

**BetMMA** · 08-22-2015, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by Luke

Jesus FUCK!! I didn't even realize that. Just ruined my plans for Saturday

I did the same. Nearly started a twitter ad campaign for "tonight's UFC" until I realised it wasn't even today :P

I think this is a card for betting the overs. I'm not confident enough to really tip anything for this event but these are my personal bets. Was also tempted by Sam Stout cos I think Perez is a poor fighter... but Stout's very limited too.

bets.jpg

**Troublesome** · 08-23-2015, 05:47 PM

I picked Holloway by late TKO, but I think Oliveira has a very good chance to get the sub; he's the most crafty submission guy in the UFC imo, and can catch anyone. His striking has gotten better, and his wrestling has also improved immensely. Should be a great fight.

**SPX** · 08-23-2015, 05:49 PM

Glad to see we have someone here who gives Oliveira at least SOME chance to win this one. Up until this point I've been alone. But yeah, I agree with everything you say. Perhaps Holloway should be favored, but Oliveira is live here.

**KhabibTheBeagle** · 08-23-2015, 05:52 PM

The biggest toss-up fights, IMO, are Holloway/Oliveira, and Magny/Silva

Either Max keeps it standing and KOs Do Bronx, or Do Bronx gets the TD and subs Max, I don't see it any other way.

With Silve/Magny, it all depends if Magny survives the first-round onslaught. If he does, He takes the decision from a gassed Erick Silva.

**Troublesome** · 08-23-2015, 05:56 PM

Definitely. I think -200 for Oliveira is reasonable though. The guy looked sharp in there against Lentz; his knees and clinch work looked excellent. The thing is that Holloway won't be stationary or just moving forward on one axis- he'll be moving in and out, laterally, switching stances, etc., and I think that will make it difficult for Oliveira's straight up MT attack to be effective. He'll have to get it to the ground somehow or consistently get a clinch.

**SPX** · 08-23-2015, 05:58 PM

I guess tonight we find out if Holloway is really that much improved or if he's just been on a good run. While he has been looking great lately, he also has only a few notable wins. He beat Miller and Swanson, which are good wins. But every other "name" has has fought he has lost to -- Poirier, Bermudez, McGregor . . . and like I said earlier, I really believe he lost to Garcia.

Oliveira on the other hand is also on a run and in his last three fights he beat Lentz, Stephens and Hioki.

**Troublesome** · 08-23-2015, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by KhabibTheBeagle

The biggest toss-up fights, IMO, are Holloway/Oliveira, and Magny/Silva

Either Max keeps it standing and KOs Do Bronx, or Do Bronx gets the TD and subs Max, I don't see it any other way.

With Silve/Magny, it all depends if Magny survives the first-round onslaught. If he does, He takes the decision from a gassed Erick Silva.

Agreed for Holloway/Oliveira, and mostly for Magny/Silva- but Erick looked like shit at the weigh-ins; not drained, but soft. Something's up with him.

**Troublesome** · 08-23-2015, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by SPX

I guess tonight we find out if Holloway is really that much improved or if he's just been on a good run. While he has been looking great lately, he also has only a few notable wins. He beat Miller and Swanson, which are good wins. But every other "name" has has fought he has lost to -- Poirier, Bermudez, McGregor . . . and like I said earlier, I really believe he lost to Garcia.

Oliveira on the other hand is also on a run and in his last three fights he beat Lentz, Stephens and Hioki.

Oliveira's wins are arguably of better quality than Holloway's, despite the streak-length. Stopping Cub was pretty impressive though. Could be close but Holloway should win just by the style matchup.

**SPX** · 08-23-2015, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by Troublesome

Agreed for Holloway/Oliveira, and mostly for Magny/Silva- but Erick looked like shit at the weigh-ins; not drained, but soft. Something's up with him.

I know a lot of people seem to think he's cycled off the juice.

**KhabibTheBeagle** · 08-23-2015, 06:08 PM

Hopefully Cirkunov is the new prospect LHW needs

**SPX** · 08-23-2015, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by KhabibTheBeagle

Hopefully Cirkunov is the new prospect LHW needs

What do you know about this guy? Honestly, I had never even heard of him until I pulled up BFO today.

UFN 74: Holloway vs Oliveira

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