UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

**zY|** · 12-22-2009, 10:38 PM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

JDS is still so sloppy though....

**Luke** · 12-22-2009, 11:18 PM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Originally posted by MMA_scientist

Don't get me wrong, I think its a pretty safe bet. JDS is top notch, while Yvel is maybe not even top 20. Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test. If he can't catch a big slow pasty caucasion wrestler, why should he catch JDS?

He won while being in the full mount throwing strikes.Had this fight been fought on their feet Yvel would have stood a good chance of winning

**Luke** · 12-22-2009, 11:21 PM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Originally posted by IWS Zak

Im leary of this one too. Yvel can bang, and like Scientist said, when these big guys are throwing, anything can happen.

Thats kind of my thinking. Is Santos going to try to fight this on their feet? If so no way am I laying -260. If Santos was going to try to take it to the ground then maybe

**SPX** · 12-22-2009, 11:39 PM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Originally posted by zY|

JDS is still so sloppy though....

I have never once thought of JDS as sloppy.

He is gonna fuck Yvel up. Can anything happen in MMA? Sure. Yvel can win and make me look like a fool, but I think JDS will take this one decisively.

I have 3u on JDS. I'm considering 5u, which is pretty much my max bet.

**MMA_scientist** · 12-23-2009, 08:34 AM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Originally posted by Luke

Originally posted by MMA_scientist

Don't get me wrong, I think its a pretty safe bet. JDS is top notch, while Yvel is maybe not even top 20. Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test. If he can't catch a big slow pasty caucasion wrestler, why should he catch JDS?

He won while being in the full mount throwing strikes.Had this fight been fought on their feet Yvel would have stood a good chance of winning

Its true. I got confused... I was thinking of the Rizzo fight.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2009, 10:51 AM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Not sure how relevant this is, but I thought it was interesting. Im sure we will hear more about it after the fight.

Rashad Evans said he’s chosen not to buy into the rumors that his Jan. 2 opponent Thiago Silva is injured.

Silva, who faces Evans at UFC 108 on Jan. 2 in Las Vegas, was said to have strained his ankle in training but was coaxed to stay on the injury-laden card by the promotion for additional compensation. Silva and his American Top Team camp have denied the rumors.

**SPX** · 12-23-2009, 10:54 AM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Probably the best strategy for Rashad. You gotta prepare to handle the best that your opponent can throw at you.

I would totally be on Rashad if his line wasn't so shitty. Those lucky 5dimes fuckers had a chance to get him at -155.

**The HOFF** · 12-25-2009, 02:53 AM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

My plays for UFC 108:

Rashad Evans -175 (8.75u to win 5u)
Dustin Hazelett +100 (2.5u to win 2.5u)
Jake Ellenberger -120 (6u to win 5u)
Ryan Jensen +300 (2u to win 6u)

I think Thiago Silva is too slow on his feet and has a weak chin. His biggest wins are Jardine and Alexander. The biggest reason I have always been skeptical about Silva is his fight with Antonio Mendes. He was actually in some trouble in that fight. Evans is very quick and should be able to take down Silva at will if he gets into trouble standing up.

Hazelett has slick submissions and Daley has a weak ground game.

Ellenberger looked great against Condit, and wasn't submitted by Condit which is a huge feat in itself.

Mark Munoz can wrestle, that's it. Why is he a huge favorite. I love these odds with Jensen.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-25-2009, 10:10 AM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

GL on the Plays Hoff!

Thanks for stopping by and giving us your analysis.

**SPX** · 12-25-2009, 10:16 AM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Hey, man! Welcome to the forum.

Looks like you're going big on just about everything. Is 1 unit 1% of your bankroll?

I think I like all your picks but Hazelett. I have 1.25u on Daley in that one. I think it could go either way so Hazelett isn't necessarily a BAD bet in my estimation, but I think I like Daley's chances better simply because he has shown some good takedown defense and Hazelett has never been shown to have really good takedowns. On the feet, Daley owns this one.

I'm with you on your other three picks. I have 1.25u on Ellenberger @ -115 (thinking of pushing this up to 2u) and Jensen has value at +300 I believe. The oddsmakers seem to be grossly overestimating Munoz's skill.

I would make a play on Rashad, but don't like his line. I think he has value at -180 or better. I'm keeping an eye on this one to see if his line will drop, but I'm not expecting it to.

**The HOFF** · 12-25-2009, 03:28 PM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

A unit is roughly 1% of my bankroll. I don't play real big and I'm sure my unit size is rather small comparatively.

I think the Hazelett-Daley fight is very close. I just know getting Hazelett at EV was a good line so I jumped on it.

**Luke** · 12-25-2009, 06:40 PM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Originally posted by The HOFF

My plays for UFC 108:

Rashad Evans -175 (8.75u to win 5u)
Dustin Hazelett +100 (2.5u to win 2.5u)
Jake Ellenberger -120 (6u to win 5u)
Ryan Jensen +300 (2u to win 6u)

I think Thiago Silva is too slow on his feet and has a weak chin. His biggest wins are Jardine and Alexander. The biggest reason I have always been skeptical about Silva is his fight with Antonio Mendes. He was actually in some trouble in that fight. Evans is very quick and should be able to take down Silva at will if he gets into trouble standing up.

Hazelett has slick submissions and Daley has a weak ground game.

Ellenberger looked great against Condit, and wasn't submitted by Condit which is a huge feat in itself.

Mark Munoz can wrestle, that's it. Why is he a huge favorite. I love these odds with Jensen.

GL Hoff and welcome.I'm still working on my plays buy I'm leaning Evans too.

**MMA_scientist** · 12-27-2009, 02:34 PM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Originally posted by The HOFF

My plays for UFC 108:

Rashad Evans -175 (8.75u to win 5u)
Dustin Hazelett +100 (2.5u to win 2.5u)
Jake Ellenberger -120 (6u to win 5u)
Ryan Jensen +300 (2u to win 6u)

I think Thiago Silva is too slow on his feet and has a weak chin. His biggest wins are Jardine and Alexander. The biggest reason I have always been skeptical about Silva is his fight with Antonio Mendes. He was actually in some trouble in that fight. Evans is very quick and should be able to take down Silva at will if he gets into trouble standing up.

Hazelett has slick submissions and Daley has a weak ground game.

Ellenberger looked great against Condit, and wasn't submitted by Condit which is a huge feat in itself.

Mark Munoz can wrestle, that's it. Why is he a huge favorite. I love these odds with Jensen.

You bet similar to the way I do, 1= 1%, always bet "amount to risk"... but I rarely go over 5u. I like all your plays, but I give Daley decent shot to win. I agree on Munoz, there is definate value to Jensen (though I still think Munoz will win).

My 108 plays are

5u on Rashad @ -195
5u on Cole Miller @-155

That's it.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-29-2009, 05:24 PM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Anyone know if they are showing some prelims on spike saturday?

**The HOFF** · 12-29-2009, 07:12 PM

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Two confirmed Prelims for SPIKE:

* Martin Kampmann vs. Jacob Volkmann
* Dan Lauzon vs. Cole Miller

UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

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