UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

[quote=IWS Zak]

I added a late play on Jim Miller @ -425 for 6u

I am on tilt after Sok.


But Miller has defeated awesome strikers before (Cobbrey) and has only last to better wrestlers (MAynard and Edgar- both top 10). Should be a lock and get me right after Sok.

GL man. I think you bounce back big this weekend.

[/quote:yejbj030]

Thanks... I appreciate the vote of confidence.

I am still up quite a bit in december, before Sok, it was out of control

[triathlete]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Hey everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster.

I just started betting on MMA. First event. I've been reading posts and decided to give it a try. Starting out tiny with 1-2$ units and working my way up as I figure out how to make it work. Have an account with Bodog and BetUS... going to fund Bookmaker for 109 to have a decent line selection.

So, that being said, I appreciate reading thoughts and suggestions by everyone... I'm learning a lot.

Here's what I've got so far...

Ellenberger over Pyle
JD Santos over Yvel
Kampmann over Volkman
Daley over Hazelett

For some reason, I feel funny about the Daley pick... but other than that... pretty straight forward.

Thx.
3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Hey everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster.

I just started betting on MMA. First event. I've been reading posts and decided to give it a try. Starting out tiny with 1-2$ units and working my way up as I figure out how to make it work. Have an account with Bodog and BetUS... going to fund Bookmaker for 109 to have a decent line selection.

So, that being said, I appreciate reading thoughts and suggestions by everyone... I'm learning a lot.

Here's what I've got so far...

Ellenberger over Pyle
JD Santos over Yvel
Kampmann over Volkman
Daley over Hazelett

For some reason, I feel funny about the Daley pick... but other than that... pretty straight forward.

Thx.
3

Great to have ya man. BOL on the plays!

[SPX]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Hey everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster.

I just started betting on MMA. First event. I've been reading posts and decided to give it a try. Starting out tiny with 1-2$ units and working my way up as I figure out how to make it work. Have an account with Bodog and BetUS... going to fund Bookmaker for 109 to have a decent line selection.

So, that being said, I appreciate reading thoughts and suggestions by everyone... I'm learning a lot.

Here's what I've got so far...

Ellenberger over Pyle
JD Santos over Yvel
Kampmann over Volkman
Daley over Hazelett

For some reason, I feel funny about the Daley pick... but other than that... pretty straight forward.

Thx.
3

Hey, welcome to the forum!

I like all your picks. In fact, those are the guys I have my biggest bets on.

I'm with you on Daley being iffy. His fight could go either way. What odds did you take him at? I think that at even odds or with Daley being an uderdog, he's worth a bet.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

I have 16% of my bankroll out. Ithink having that damnblog is making more aggressive than I used to be. I want to make sure I win, which was never an issue for me before.

I hear you on that. I've been getting more aggressive lately. I think for me it had to do with such slow progress. I mean, I was down overall for a while and on the events I would win it would be like 1 or 2 units and it was just taking SO LONG to dig myself out of this hole. I never felt comfortable dropping a lot of units on anything because I didn't want to have a big, devastating loss. But one thing I noticed was that a lot of people around me were putting big time units on the fights they really felt comfortable with. First time I did that was on BJ at 109. I put 5u on him, which I basically never do, but it worked out for me.

Taking my unit size into account, my bankroll is only about 37 units. So a 5u bet is pretty significant.

[triathlete]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Hey, welcome to the forum!

I like all your picks. In fact, those are the guys I have my biggest bets on.

I'm with you on Daley being iffy. His fight could go either way. What odds did you take him at? I think that at even odds or with Daley being an uderdog, he's worth a bet.

SPX,

Hey, read some of your stuff at MMAJunkie. It's actually how I came across this site.

I have Daley at -115 on BetUS. He's now at +105 on BetUS. I know that line has been back and forth on the odds comparison sites I've been looking at... but that was the best on him when I went in. I suppose I should get used to that ;)

I have 1u on Ellenberger (-140), 3 on JDS (-300), 2u on Kampmann (-240), and 2u on Daley (-115, primarily because BUS wouldn't let me put 1u, too small of a number :) ).

So, is straight betting the norm? I know there are other types of bets and such you can make... but like side bets in Blackjack, you just don't make them. Any advice?

Thx,

3

[SPX]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

Hey, read some of your stuff at MMAJunkie. It's actually how I came across this site.

Oh, sweet! Glad you stopped by. We are always looking for quality posters around here. We have a small community, but it's really very active for only having a handful of regulars. (Probably more active than the Junkie wagering forum, oddly.)

I have Daley at -115 on BetUS. He's now at +105 on BetUS. I know that line has been back and forth on the odds comparison sites I've been looking at... but that was the best on him when I went in. I suppose I should get used to that ;)

I got him at -110. If I had waited, I could've gotten him at Even, I think. I still think he holds value, but this is a high variance play. It really could go either way. I just think it's probably 55/45 in favor of Daley.

And yes, you should get used to that.

I have 1u on Ellenberger (-140), 3 on JDS (-300), 2u on Kampmann (-240), and 2u on Daley (-115, primarily because BUS wouldn't let me put 1u, too small of a number :) ).

Pretty good, I think. Too bad you didn't get on Ellenberger and Kampmann earlier on. You could've gotten them at -115 and -170 respectively. Be sure to keep a close eye on bestfightodds and sign up for alerts for fights you're particularly interested in betting on.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

I have 16% of my bankroll out. Ithink having that damnblog is making more aggressive than I used to be. I want to make sure I win, which was never an issue for me before.

I hear you on that. I've been getting more aggressive lately. I think for me it had to do with such slow progress. I mean, I was down overall for a while and on the events I would win it would be like 1 or 2 units and it was just taking SO LONG to dig myself out of this hole. I never felt comfortable dropping a lot of units on anything because I didn't want to have a big, devastating loss. But one thing I noticed was that a lot of people around me were putting big time units on the fights they really felt comfortable with. First time I did that was on BJ at 109. I put 5u on him, which I basically never do, but it worked out for me.

Taking my unit size into account, my bankroll is only about 37 units. So a 5u bet is pretty significant.

I have a 100 unit bankroll, so I unit is 1%

I make my money on favorites, I look for favorites where the style matchup creates more value. That's pretty much it.

I try to keep my bets to 5%, but sometime go as high as 7%. For underdogs, I never go more than 2%


I think Hazelett is gonna win, but I think its a coin flip pretty much

[SPX]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

I have a 100 unit bankroll, so I unit is 1%

I make my money on favorites, I look for favorites where the style matchup creates more value. That's pretty much it.

I try to keep my bets to 5%, but sometime go as high as 7%. For underdogs, I never go more than 2%


I think Hazelett is gonna win, but I think its a coin flip pretty much

I have about $725 spread out over three accounts. I don't want to use anything less than a $20 unit. You're just not going to make any money that way.

I'll be happy when I have that cushion of 1u=1%. I'll feel a lot better about 3-5 unit bets. I'd like to be able to get there within a year. We'll see. I do know of one guy who tripled his bankroll in a year. He said he had to make a lot of "dicey" bets to do it, not sure how he defines dicey, though.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

I also tripled my bankroll in a year (twice). I used a 20unit bankroll, so I had the whole thing at risk several times.

But it can be done. 10% per month compounded will triple it every year. I did 30% last month and 14% in November (based on 50units per my blog).

[triathlete]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

So here's a question for you triplers (and everyone)

How many books do you keep? I saw SPX has three. I'm assuming you shop your lines and everything. How much of a factor is that?

I have two right now, Bodog and BetUS, and I'm going to fund Bookmaker after this. Would you attribute success (or lack thereof) to the ability to shop that around? How many do you feel you need to keep to have a good selection?

Switching topics, I saw Ludwig v. Miller is +400 to -600 (bodog). How do you react to that? I've read a few blogs/articles picking Ludwig. Do you generally put a unit or two on the dog or does a "good" bettor usually stay clear of things like that?

Thx,
3

[SPX]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

I also tripled my bankroll in a year (twice). I used a 20unit bankroll, so I had the whole thing at risk several times.

But it can be done. 10% per month compounded will triple it every year. I did 30% last month and 14% in November (based on 50units per my blog).

Good stuff.

From now on, when I bet on fights I'm going to repeat the mantra in my head, "Be like the scientist!"

[SPX]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

So here's a question for you triplers (and everyone)

How many books do you keep? I saw SPX has three. I'm assuming you shop your lines and everything. How much of a factor is that?

I have two right now, Bodog and BetUS, and I'm going to fund Bookmaker after this. Would you attribute success (or lack thereof) to the ability to shop that around? How many do you feel you need to keep to have a good selection?

Switching topics, I saw Ludwig v. Miller is +400 to -600 (bodog). How do you react to that? I've read a few blogs/articles picking Ludwig. Do you generally put a unit or two on the dog or does a "good" bettor usually stay clear of things like that?

Thx,
3

I have accounts with Bodog, Sportsbook, and Bookmaker, and I'm working on getting a 5dimes account funded. To answer your question, I think that having AT LEAST 3 books is VERY important. Often one book will have a line that's playable while another will not. Line shopping is a big part of being successful. It's good that you're opening a Bookmaker account. They are VERY important because they are often the first to post lines and also occasionally have the best lines on any given fight. Bodog is often good for underdogs, but their lines for favorites usually kind of suck (as you can see in your above example). Sportsbook is okay to have, but only because they will occasionally have the best line available, but generally their lines stay close to Bodog lines and they are never the first to post lines. If I were you, after you go with Bookmaker, I'd get a 5dimes account going and then you'll probably be good. 5dimes often has a lot of very good lines and occasionally may have a +EV prop bet.

As for Miller/Ludwig, I honestly know very little about Ludwig, but I have a hard time believing he should be +400. There occasionally is good value in very heavy underdogs. For instance, for the Dynamite event I put .25u on Kanehara @ +350 against Kid Yamamoto and Kanehara won by unanimous decision. Generally for a fight like that, I won't do a full unit. Typically, my underdog bets range from .25 to .5u, though occasionally I'll go heavier. For example, I have 1u on Keith Jardine @ +130 against Ryan Bader. Usually if I go with more than half a unit, then it's for an underdog who is in the sub -200 range.

[The HOFF]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

I have two right now, Bodog and BetUS, and I'm going to fund Bookmaker after this. Would you attribute success (or lack thereof) to the ability to shop that around? How many do you feel you need to keep to have a good selection?

Bookmaker is one of the best options for straight bets. Usually they have the best line and are the first to post lines. 5Dimes is an excellent option as well because they allow MMA parlays.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion

I have two right now, Bodog and BetUS, and I'm going to fund Bookmaker after this. Would you attribute success (or lack thereof) to the ability to shop that around? How many do you feel you need to keep to have a good selection?

Bookmaker is one of the best options for straight bets. Usually they have the best line and are the first to post lines. 5Dimes is an excellent option as well because they allow MMA parlays.

The best option for dogs or favorites is matchbook.

Example

Thiago Silva
Rashad evans

At bookmaer Evans is -200 and Silva is +160

at matchbook Evans is -188 and Silva is +185 so no matter if you like the favorite or the dog you are saving 12 or 15 cents juice.

All fights are like this at matchbook .Why? because matchbook takes a 1% commission or juice on bets unlike bookmaker that is taking 40 cents juice on the Evans -Silva fight