UFC Fight Night 20

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

For some reason I though Amir armbarred him. I didn't realize he had any standup. I am gonna watch his fights on youtube.... I might ride with you on Gerald (depending on the line of course).

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Well, I did a little research. For some reason I thought Gerald was a collegiate wrestler... I dont think he was. Massenzio is a bjj covert. He was a national champion in wrestling in HS, and Juco champ, i thought he was a butt flopper... He might still get KO'd by Harris, but I am out on that one. Powerful guys like Gerald don't know what to do when they get controlled. Massenzio is an all around grappler. I thought this was a grappler/grappler match, but it looks more like grappler/striker. I am sitting that fight out. Good chance Gerald gets taken down and controlled, even if he doesn't get subbed.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Well, I did a little research. For some reason I thought Gerald was a collegiate wrestler... I dont think he was. Massenzio is a bjj covert. He was a national champion in wrestling in HS, and Juco champ, i thought he was a butt flopper... He might still get KO'd by Harris, but I am out on that one. Powerful guys like Gerald don't know what to do when they get controlled. Massenzio is an all around grappler. I thought this was a grappler/grappler match, but it looks more like grappler/striker. I am sitting that fight out. Good chance Gerald gets taken down and controlled, even if he doesn't get subbed.

From his bio on Spike:

"Harris has always been athletic - he wrestled all throughout college and even played semi-pro football."

Doesn't go into any more detail than that, but I think his base is wrestling, not striking. Have you see him slam someone? It's like the second coming of Slampage.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Well, I did a little research. For some reason I thought Gerald was a collegiate wrestler... I dont think he was. Massenzio is a bjj covert. He was a national champion in wrestling in HS, and Juco champ, i thought he was a butt flopper... He might still get KO'd by Harris, but I am out on that one. Powerful guys like Gerald don't know what to do when they get controlled. Massenzio is an all around grappler. I thought this was a grappler/grappler match, but it looks more like grappler/striker. I am sitting that fight out. Good chance Gerald gets taken down and controlled, even if he doesn't get subbed.

From his bio on Spike:

"Harris has always been athletic - he wrestled all throughout college and even played semi-pro football."

Doesn't go into any more detail than that, but I think his base is wrestling, not striking. Have you see him slam someone? It's like the second coming of Slampage.

I haven't been able to find any info on him wrestling. Wrestling "throughout college" could mean a lot of things. He proabbly stayed active on the freestyle circuit at the espoir and university levels... but that is quite a bit different than wrestling in college. It certainly looks like his base is wrestling, but I think he is probably going to get out wrestled by Massenzio, if it comes to that.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I haven't been able to find any info on him wrestling. Wrestling "throughout college" could mean a lot of things. He proabbly stayed active on the freestyle circuit at the espoir and university levels... but that is quite a bit different than wrestling in college. It certainly looks like his base is wrestling, but I think he is probably going to get out wrestled by Massenzio, if it comes to that.

Maybe I don't understand what you mean by "wrestling in college" then. To me, that is participating in the sport of wrestling while enrolled in college.

[Luke]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I haven't been able to find any info on him wrestling. Wrestling "throughout college" could mean a lot of things. He proabbly stayed active on the freestyle circuit at the espoir and university levels... but that is quite a bit different than wrestling in college. It certainly looks like his base is wrestling, but I think he is probably going to get out wrestled by Massenzio, if it comes to that.

Maybe I don't understand what you mean by "wrestling in college" then. To me, that is participating in the sport of wrestling while enrolled in college.

I wrestled alot in college but it was usually with little tan blondes

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Well, he could have wrestled on a club team, or he could have just entered local tourneys. Anyone can enter a local tourney, and a lot of former HS wrestlers do it while in college, just for fun or if they didnt get enough in HS. It is experience, but it is akin to entering the local bjj tourney with 3 guys in your weightclass. I don't know that is what he did, but I don't see any record of him wrestling on a college team...

[triathlete]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I wrestled alot in college but it was usually with little tan blondes

Haha... what was your final record?

[triathlete]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

So, here's a research question.

As I start betting on some of the Fight Night and WEC fights, I'm going to need to do a little more research on some of the lower card fighters that I know nothing about, which would be most of them.

What sort of research methods do you employ? Do you watch film? Do you have a spreadsheet with numbers assigned to fighters? Or is it just gut feeling? I'm going to try to make another 5 picks on the WEC and FN cards.

Thx,

3

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

^^^ First off, you're dealing with two different animals here.

Fight Night's are going to be easier than WECs, precisely because UFC videos are much easier to find online than WEC videos. It's odd, because both are owned by Zuffa, but WEC videos get pulled down due to copyright infringement MUCH faster than UFC videos do. I don't know if maybe this has something to do with whoever owns the Versus channel or what. My solution has been to download all the WECs I can find. (Gotta give props to zY for inspiring me to do this.) Now if I need to look up a fight then I can (hopefully) just pull it up from my hard drive. This still isn't much help for a lot of the lesser known WEC fighters though because the prelims often aren't aired so in that case I'm still out of luck.

As for my actual process, I have a loose system that I follow:

1. I look up each fighters reacords and pay particular attention to who they've won against and who they've lost against. A lot of fighters may have good records, but you'll notice that any time they've fought a good fighter who has a name you'd have heard of, they lost. If the guy they're going to be fighting is in the same tier as the guys they've consistently lost to, then that's a good sign they'll probably lose this one, too. It's also good to note if they have had any common opponents and, obviously, if they've fought each other before.

2. I watch 3 to 5 recent videos for each other. I try to watch both wins and losses. I try to keep it varied. If they have wins/losses via KO or sub, then I try to make sure to watch at least one of each. I also like to watch some footage of their wins/losses via decision. How did they win? How did they lose? Was it close or did they dominate their opponent/get dominated? It's especially important to watch vids of fights they've had where they're opponents were very similar in style to the guy in the upcoming bout. I mean, if they have a habit of getting LnP'd en route to decision losses and the guy they're about to be fighting is a strong wrestler, then you know there's probably a lot of value in the other guy.

3. I try to see the fight play out in my head. I literally try to watch a mental video and see how it goes down.

4. Based upon all these factors, I try to assign what I believe is the true line and bet accordingly.

I've thought about trying to get even more scientific about it and even coming up with certain categories like "striking," "KO power," "wrestling," "takedown defense," etc. and then assigning number values to them as well as some other ideas but I haven't taken it that far yet.

Anyway, hope that helps.

[triathlete]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

It absolutely does. I've watched a few videos already - I figured the process would entail that - but I'm not quite sure how to "watch" the videos. Absolutely makes sense - now.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

^^^
This is pretty much what I do. I just look at the card, and see what fights jump out like "oh he is gonna win that." Then I look up records and see what style matchups are similar in past opponents. Then I watch some video clips of the facets that I have questions about

For example, I am trying to decide whether to place a bet on Aaron Simpson right now. So I look at Lawlor, what problems does he present. Basically Lawlor is a wrestler/grappler, similar to Dan Miller or Amtt Hughes. Better on top, but has some bottom subs. So I looked at the CB Dolloway fight. This is the only better wrestler Lawlor has defeated. He Subbed him with a guillotine. All of Lawlor's other subs and wins have come from the top position. So the next step is to check Simpson's defense. I looked at Herman, who is similar to Lawlor, just not as good with the all around grappling. Right now, I am looking at his fight with Avellan, who is a jiu jitsu fighter. What was his strategy? Was he threatened? If I am satisfied with his sub defense, I will bet on him. This is the key to that fight, IMO.

I also look for fights where there is a natural state... and then try to eliminate fights where there are a lot of variables. I like fights where it is clear what the battle will be, not fights where the fightt changes if a fighter employs a different strategy.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Oh and I don't bet WEC's... it is probablt going to sound strange, but the smaller fighters are too damn dynamic. There are too many good guys, they can all beat each other.

[Luke]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I'm

50% videos

40% gut

10% records/motivation

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

It absolutely does. I've watched a few videos already - I figured the process would entail that - but I'm not quite sure how to "watch" the videos. Absolutely makes sense - now.

Glad I could help. Just be smart about it. Understand how fights are won and remember that styles make fights.