UFC Fight Night 20

[triathlete]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Oh and I don't bet WEC's... it is probablt going to sound strange, but the smaller fighters are too damn dynamic. There are too many good guys, they can all beat each other.

You know, I was thinking that to myself... even the people that "should" win lose to each other...

..but it is another opportunity..

I was going to ask you: Since you're looking to take this on as a full-time thing (therefore taking it very, very seriously) do you feel there's enough UFC fights to make that happen without having to put an enormous amount on each event? Or am I ignorant in assuming you only bet UFC MMA fights (which is possibly the case).

I think I'm going to follow that logic and just bet on UFC for now. I'll have to get to researching... have a week.

3

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

^^^
This is pretty much what I do. I just look at the card, and see what fights jump out like "oh he is gonna win that." Then I look up records and see what style matchups are similar in past opponents. Then I watch some video clips of the facets that I have questions about

For example, I am trying to decide whether to place a bet on Aaron Simpson right now. So I look at Lawlor, what problems does he present. Basically Lawlor is a wrestler/grappler, similar to Dan Miller or Amtt Hughes. Better on top, but has some bottom subs. So I looked at the CB Dolloway fight. This is the only better wrestler Lawlor has defeated. He Subbed him with a guillotine. All of Lawlor's other subs and wins have come from the top position. So the next step is to check Simpson's defense. I looked at Herman, who is similar to Lawlor, just not as good with the all around grappling. Right now, I am looking at his fight with Avellan, who is a jiu jitsu fighter. What was his strategy? Was he threatened? If I am satisfied with his sub defense, I will bet on him. This is the key to that fight, IMO.

I also look for fights where there is a natural state... and then try to eliminate fights where there are a lot of variables. I like fights where it is clear what the battle will be, not fights where the fightt changes if a fighter employs a different strategy.

Good stuff here. Lots of good thoughts.

So what was your conclusion? Is there value in Lawlor or are you going with A-Train?

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

You know, I was thinking that to myself... even the people that "should" win lose to each other...

Every dog has his day. Serra/GSP I will always and forever remind us of this.

..but it is another opportunity..

This is how I look at it. Every fight is an opportunity because someone has to win.

I was going to ask you: Since you're looking to take this on as a full-time thing (therefore taking it very, very seriously) do you feel there's enough UFC fights to make that happen without having to put an enormous amount on each event? Or am I ignorant in assuming you only bet UFC MMA fights (which is possibly the case).

I also hope to either do this fulltime or at least turn it into a significant side income, and I think that it's a mistake to restrict yourself solely to UFC. If you want to maximize your earning potential, then you have to look at all the big orgs: UFC, WEC, Strikeforce, DREAM, Sengoku, etc. And odds also occasionally go up for the smaller shows, like MFC, M-1, Shark Fights, etc.

My goal is to get to the point where I am betting on just about everything.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Okay, I just did some research on Escudero/Dunham.

Hmm. . .

I think the line's probably pretty well set. I believe I would feel comfortable taking Escudero at anything under -200, but not at the current line. Dunham is more game than I expected him to be. He's tall and lanky and knows how to use his height and reach to his advantage in his striking and his takedown defense isn't excellent, but it's not bad either.

At the current line, if I were to place a bet, it would probably be .25u on Dunham. Either that, or I would throw Escudero into a parlay with another fighter who I gave a good chance to win.

We'll see what happens as we get closer to fight time. If Escudero's line continues to get worse and Dunham's better, then I'll probably make a small play on Dunham. I think he has ways to win.

[Luke]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Number one thing in betting


NEVER EVER bet a fight where you havent watched both fighters fight at least once

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Number one thing in betting


NEVER EVER bet a fight where you havent watched both fighters fight at least once

I did that. . .

. . . on all the boxing matches I've bet on.

[Luke]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Number one thing in betting


NEVER EVER bet a fight where you havent watched both fighters fight at least once

I did that. . .

. . . on all the boxing matches I've bet on.

[The HOFF]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I find that WEC fights are a lot harder to cap as well. Most of the fighters are making their debut and come from smaller local shows. Youtube is actually a good source for finding fight videos of those local shows.

With this Fight Night card I actually think there is a lot of value in the dogs. TUF fame always inflates a line. I think both Escudero and Sadollah are overpriced. I actually think Blackburn should be favored over Sadollah. Amir had some extremely sloppy stand up while beating up a can in Baroni. And I think everyone forgets that Amir was subbing inexperienced guys on the show. Subs don't come that easy against decent competition. Blackburn is a middle of the road vet that is going to give Sadollah problems. Love Blackburn at +135. Dunham has just as good of a skill set as Escudero has. Plus Dunham is going to have a reach advantage. I'm on Dunham +200. And as previously stated, I like Diaz at +270. Waiting for the line on Rory MacDonald.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Good stuff here. Lots of good thoughts.

So what was your conclusion? Is there value in Lawlor or are you going with A-Train?

The Avellan fight didn't show me much (he KOd him in the first exchange). But it did remind me that Simpson also has a striking advantage. I also watched Herman v. Maia. Heman is a decent grappler, he was doing pretty well against Demian, and Demian was starting to gas.

The I looked at Lawlor. All of his subs except CB, came from dominant positions. He is like Matt Hughes, he can sub you, but is much more likely from top. CB is a decent wrestler, but is ALOT slower and more lanky than Simpson, who has a compact body habitus. His stocky frame will make him more difficult to submit.

What pushed me over though was Lawlor's TUF fight with Bader. Simpson is similar to Bader, but more explosive with his hands.

I put down 5u on Simpson @ -250

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Oh and I don't bet WEC's... it is probablt going to sound strange, but the smaller fighters are too damn dynamic. There are too many good guys, they can all beat each other.

You know, I was thinking that to myself... even the people that "should" win lose to each other...

..but it is another opportunity..

I was going to ask you: Since you're looking to take this on as a full-time thing (therefore taking it very, very seriously) do you feel there's enough UFC fights to make that happen without having to put an enormous amount on each event? Or am I ignorant in assuming you only bet UFC MMA fights (which is possibly the case).

I think I'm going to follow that logic and just bet on UFC for now. I'll have to get to researching... have a week.

3

No there are plenty of fights, I don't even bet every one. If you bet 5% on each fight, you only need to win one bet per month. Most guru's recommend smaller bets, maybe 1%, but I pretty much bet favorites all the time. I look for favorites with very few variables and a clear advantage.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Good thread.

I probably wont be betting this card, but from a value standpoint, Diaz could be a play. He already has a win over Maynard on Tuf, so he has to have a mental edge there.

The problem with that though, is Maynard is a much better fighter than he was back on TUF.

I could see Maynard following the Clay Guida gameplan, and dry humping Diaz for 3 rounds for a decision, but at the same time, Diaz has already shown he can sub Maynard.

No play for me, but as a big Diaz fan, I cant wait to see it, and I hope he comes through.

[zY|]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Honestly I hope Diaz wins for the sake of the LW division.

That way Edgar can get a title shot. Pretty sure Maynard knows he has no chance, and he has a win over Edgar.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Honestly I hope Diaz wins for the sake of the LW division.

That way Edgar can get a title shot. Pretty sure Maynard knows he has no chance, and he has a win over Edgar.

I want Maynard to get a title shot so I can get rich off BJ.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Honestly I hope Diaz wins for the sake of the LW division.

That way Edgar can get a title shot. Pretty sure Maynard knows he has no chance, and he has a win over Edgar.

I think Gray has a better shotat BJ that Edgar. At least Maynard is big.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Okay, I just did some research on Escudero/Dunham.

Hmm. . .

I think the line's probably pretty well set. I believe I would feel comfortable taking Escudero at anything under -200, but not at the current line. Dunham is more game than I expected him to be. He's tall and lanky and knows how to use his height and reach to his advantage in his striking and his takedown defense isn't excellent, but it's not bad either.

At the current line, if I were to place a bet, it would probably be .25u on Dunham. Either that, or I would throw Escudero into a parlay with another fighter who I gave a good chance to win.

We'll see what happens as we get closer to fight time. If Escudero's line continues to get worse and Dunham's better, then I'll probably make a small play on Dunham. I think he has ways to win.

I won't bet Dunham. I am still considering Efrain. Can Efrain strike with Dunham?