UFC Fight Night 20

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

.5u on Dunham at +210

Done and done.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Underdog Results for December

Okay, just tallied these up.

Dennis Hallman: L -.5u
Kimbo Slice: W +.65u
Matt Hamill: W +1u (I know, I know, but a win's a win)
Alan Belcher: W +.79u (I know he ended up as the fave, but I got him at slight underdog odds)
Chris Hodecki: L -.25u
Scott Smith: W +.4u
Masanori Kanehara: W +.88u
Ryan Jensen: L -.25u
Sam Stout: W +.54u

6-3 overall. +3.26u

So there you go, good dog picks help build rolls.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

That's good work SPX. That sort of enlightens me a little, because I also had Stout, Belcher, and Slice picked to win as underdogs, though I did not bet them. I might start trying some smaller plays on dogs and thinking of it as a separate bankroll- only for dogs. This will keep me from going ballistic and trying to make up the losses.

This has inspired me to go ahead and drop .5u on Diaz

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I might start trying some smaller plays on dogs and thinking of it as a separate bankroll- only for dogs.

I like that idea. I might do that too. I think Ill put like $100 in bookmaker and do that. Make like $20 per play on a dog.

That will give me something to bet on, cause I dont really bet too many fights.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

[quote=IWS Zak]

I might start trying some smaller plays on dogs and thinking of it as a separate bankroll- only for dogs.

I like that idea. I might do that too. I think Ill put like $100 in bookmaker and do that. Make like $20 per play on a dog.

That will give me something to bet on, cause I dont really bet too many fights.[/quote:2f7var8i]


Yeah, this will keep me from going on tilt with my main bankroll when I lose (which I have a horrible time with- I am a total maniac, I literally die inside a litle everytime I lose a bet)... I will probably use a 20u bankroll for this project and just see what happens.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

That's good work SPX. That sort of enlightens me a little, because I also had Stout, Belcher, and Slice picked to win as underdogs, though I did not bet them. I might start trying some smaller plays on dogs and thinking of it as a separate bankroll- only for dogs. This will keep me from going ballistic and trying to make up the losses.

That sounds like a good idea. Just bet small amounts. Here's the way I usually look at it: The dollar bills in your wallet are for favorites . . . the change in your pocket is for dogs.

I 'd think it would be hard to get too upset for losing .25u when your average bet seems to be 20x that.

This has inspired me to go ahead and drop .5u on Diaz

Hmm. . . To be honest, I'm not sure that that's the best way to start this experiment. I have 3u on Maynard and really think he's going to win this fight. But hey, who knows. Diaz could sub him again.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I like that idea. I might do that too. I think Ill put like $100 in bookmaker and do that. Make like $20 per play on a dog.

That will give me something to bet on, cause I dont really bet too many fights.

Do, it Zak! DO IT!

Though you may want to consider using $10 units initially so you don't hit a few bad beats on the front end and tap yourself out before you really get started. (Or maybe for you that's just too small of an amount to even get excited about.)

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

[quote=SPX]

That's good work SPX. That sort of enlightens me a little, because I also had Stout, Belcher, and Slice picked to win as underdogs, though I did not bet them. I might start trying some smaller plays on dogs and thinking of it as a separate bankroll- only for dogs. This will keep me from going ballistic and trying to make up the losses.

That sounds like a good idea. Just bet small amounts. Here's the way I usually look at it: The dollar bills in your wallet are for favorites . . . the change in your pocket is for dogs.

I 'd think it would be hard to get too upset for losing .25u when your average bet seems to be 20x that.

This has inspired me to go ahead and drop .5u on Diaz

Hmm. . . To be honest, I'm not sure that that's the best way to start this experiment. I have 3u on Maynard and really think he's going to win this fight. But hey, who knows. Diaz could sub him again.[/quote:3kcykvgf]


Well in my new venture, I am going to be a strict value bettor. I think Diaz has value. To Diaz, the difference between Maynard's wrestling and Guida's is not noticeable. I think Diaz has the toughness to frustrate Maynard on his feet, and could sub him from bottom. I doubt Maynard can finish him, so that gives Diaz a long time to figure something out.

Probably not, and I haven't made the bet yet, but this is how I see it.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Okay, makes sense. I don't personally think there's value in Diaz at his line, but I could be wrong, of course.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

With Mike Massenzio (11-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) forced off the card for unspecified reasons, UFC newcomer John Salter (4-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) has taken his place and now meets middleweight Gerald Harris (13-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC) at Monday's UFC Fight Night 20 event.

Multiple sources close to the fight told MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) that bout agreements have been signed.

UFC Fight Night 20 takes place Jan. 11 at the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Va. The night's main card airs on Spike TV, though Harris vs. Salter is scheduled for the night's un-aired preliminary card.

Harris, a cast member on "The Ultimate Fighter 7" who was released after the show, recently fought his way back into the UFC and replaced injured Tim Credeur on the card. So, the Credeur vs. Massenzio fight is now a Harris vs. Salter bout.

After eventual show winner Amir Sadollah eliminated him on "TUF 7," Harris left the UFC and found plenty of success. The former IFL fighter currently owns a seven-fight win streak, which included a recent first-round knockout of former UFC fighter Nissen Osterneck in September for the Shark Fights middleweight title.

While UFC president Dana White was a guest on MMAjunkie.com Radio in November, Harris called into the show and told the UFC executive he was ready to make his octagon debut. After hearing about Harris' win streak and recent victory over Osterneck, White told him to call the offices so they could chat. Harris received a contract a few days later.

Salter makes his octagon debut with a 4-0 pro record, which followed a successful 7-0 run as an amateur. The former state high school wrestling champion and NAIA national champion (at Linwood University in Missouri) turned pro in 2007. After competing for a variety of events, including King of the Cage and Adrenaline MMA, Salter recently topped "The Ultimate Fighter 7" cast member Jeremiah Riggs via first-round TKO at an October event in Illinois.

Well holy fucking shit. Who the fuck is John Salter?

I'm just glad that Harris is still on this card. It IS going to force me to rethink my betting strategy for this fight though. I need to find something out about this Salter character.

I guess that explains why the fight disappeared from the fight card on the UFC website.

[zY|]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Jean-Paul Sartre?

Bad Philosophy joke is bad.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Just posted this over on the Junkie forum:


Maynard v Diaz

I feel strongly that Maynard should win this one. Diaz is a good BJJ guy, but he's relatively weak and has trouble with strong wrestlers (see Guida, Stevenson). I understand that Diaz subbed Maynard on TUF, but I think the Gray Maynard who was on the show is not the same Gray Maynard who is fighting today. We all know how much these guys improve after the show. On the feet, I think it will be pretty even. Diaz may land more punches, but Maynard will have more power. On the ground, I think Maynard will be able to use his wrestling to control Diaz and is experienced enough at this point to avoid his sub attempts.


Escudero v Dunham

Line is off. This fight's a lot closer to even than it would indicate, with a small edge to Escudero. I think that on the feet, Dunham probably actually has the edge here. He'll be able to use his height and reach to his advantage and the kid also has power. (If I remember correctly, he dropped both Eklund and Aurelio in the first round.) I have to believe that Escudero will have the advantage in the wrestling department. If he gets Dunham down, he might be able GnP him and win a decision, but I don't really see him putting Dunham out. However, Dunham's TD defense isn't bad and, at least according to Shawn Tompkins, Dunham is one of the few guys who can hang in the gym with Gray Maynard. The edge goes to Escudero, but I think the value is in Dunham.


Sadollah v Blackburn

Blackburn is a game opponent with some pretty crisp standup, but I think Sadollah is a step ahead. Blackburn's fights against Chonan and Garcia were pretty close. I personally scored them for Blackburn, but I have heard others call them both robberies. After Sadollah got TKOd by Hendricks I thought he might have some chin issues, but he took some heavy shots from Baroni and kept coming forward. Also, Blackburn doesn't seem to be the aggressive type of fighter who will swarm Amir like Hendricks did. I think Amir will get the better of the stand up and if it goes to the ground then he should definitely have the advantage. My primary concerns lie in the fact that I know Blackburn has a TKO win of Jay Hieron (haven't seen the fight, just the result) and Amir is still pretty much an unproven commodity at this point.


Kyle Bradley v Rafael Dos Anjos

I've never seen anything impressive from Bradley. His stand up seems pretty average and he should be completely outclassed by Dos Anjos on the ground. I think Rafael will be able to hold his own on the feet (maybe even win the stand up?) and will eventually get Bradley to the ground where he will dominate him. Bradley's one win--against Nover--was a terrible early stoppage and I doubt he would've won that fight if it had kept going. I think Dos Anjos is probably good all the way to -200.


Gerald Harris v John Salter

If you're like me, you're first thought was, "Who the fuck is John Salter?" Originally, Harris was supposed to fight Massenzio, but Massenzio pulled out for "undisclosed reasons." Sucks too, because I was looking forward to seeing Harris do his thing and make a statement in his first fight in the UFC. Now I have to rethink things and try to figure out how good of a fighter Salter is. Facts about Harris: He has awesome slams, strong wrestling, good striking with KO power, and has an overall record of 12-2. He was on featured on Season 7 of TUF where he lost via TKO to Amir, but it was a very early stoppage by a ref who didn't have a clue what he was doing in there. My guess is that if Harris' line isn't ridiculous, then he'll probably still be worth a bet.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

good shit SPX

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Maynard just dropped to -295 on Bodog and -290 on Sportsbook. I guess money is starting to come in on Diaz.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Nice breakdown.

As you know I like Dos Anjos more than that (all the way to -400)...

I also have already made my bet on Aaron Simpson @-250. Great matchup for Simpson. Lawlor can't get Simpson down, and if he does, he will be on bottom, where he is not nearly as dangerous. Love that bet.

Now, where is the damn line on the undercard?