UFC Fight Night 20

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I also have already made my bet on Aaron Simpson @-250. Great matchup for Simpson. Lawlor can't get Simpson down, and if he does, he will be on bottom, where he is not nearly as dangerous. Love that bet.

How much did you put on Simpson? I'm thinking about jumping on that one, too. . .

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I put 5u on him...

I don't see how Lawlor can beat him. Lawlor is very similar to Ed Herman IMO. Both are pretty good wrestlers, have weak standup, and a pretty good bjj game. Although Lawlor has been working on becoming a more well rounded grappler, he only has one win from bottom, his guillotine of CB- who has proven to be pretty submission prone (he has the style of wrestling that requires him to leave his limbs out). Simpson is so compact and powerful, I don't think Lawlro could sub him from bottom. But I am hoping Simpson just keeps it standing.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I just watched Simpson VS McKenzie and Herman, and Lawlor VS Kingsbury and CB.

I agree with you. Lawlor's standup looks pretty shitty. All he wants to do is shoot in the wrestle and I seriously don't think that shit will work against Simpson, who is extremely energetic and aggressive. Also, if you notice in the Lawlor/Kingsbury fight his wrestling gets progressively weaker each round. By the third, he was completely gassed and Kingsbury stole the round.

I went ahead and put 2.5u on A-Train.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Line is out for undercard

I got Dos Anjos @ -305

so my bets are:

5u on Simpson @ -250
5u on Dos Anjos @ -305

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I just watched Simpson VS McKenzie and Herman, and Lawlor VS Kingsbury and CB.

I agree with you. Lawlor's standup looks pretty shitty. All he wants to do is shoot in the wrestle and I seriously don't think that shit will work against Simpson, who is extremely energetic and aggressive. Also, if you notice in the Lawlor/Kingsbury fight his wrestling gets progressively weaker each round. By the third, he was completely gassed and Kingsbury stole the round.

I went ahead and put 2.5u on A-Train.

Yeah Simpson is also a WAY better wrestler than Lawlor. Lawlor was a NCWA wrestler... Simpson was an AA and olympic candidate and coaches for ASU.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Line is out for undercard

I got Dos Anjos @ -305

so my bets are:

5u on Simpson @ -250
5u on Dos Anjos @ -305

Totally disappointed in Dos Anjos's line.

I'm going to wait and see if other books open him at a better price or if Bodog's comes down.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I thought it would be -250 or so...

he is going the opposite way though, he was -315 within 2 minutes after I placed my bet

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Damn, this is fucking disappointing.

Dos Anjos' line sucks and Gerald Harris doesn't even get one.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Maybe a line will open on Gerald tomorrow, but if you think Dos Anjos' line sucks... Gerald is gonna be a huge favorite

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Maybe a line will open on Gerald tomorrow, but if you think Dos Anjos' line sucks... Gerald is gonna be a huge favorite

Maybe I'll put 'em in a parlay together. . .

[UKDonkbet]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I really like Silva at +155 against Leben. Stylistically this is a bad match up for Leben. H ewill want to stand and bang with Silva and this gives Silva his best possible way to win. I believe Leben will want to KO the knockout artist to prove that he his committed to MMA that means staying in the pocket and giving Silva his best chance to win. I had Rosholt in the his Leben fight but I didn't think it would end the way it did. Leben looked awful in his hometown where I would suspect he would wan to make an excellent showing. Taking Silva based on bad matchup for Leben style-wise and has seemed to faded out some.

I like a small play on Silva here. I'm thinking about a .25u to .75u play on Silva, still watching to see how the line moves though. Thoughts?

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I really like Silva at +155 against Leben. Stylistically this is a bad match up for Leben. H ewill want to stand and bang with Silva and this gives Silva his best possible way to win. I believe Leben will want to KO the knockout artist to prove that he his committed to MMA that means staying in the pocket and giving Silva his best chance to win. I had Rosholt in the his Leben fight but I didn't think it would end the way it did. Leben looked awful in his hometown where I would suspect he would wan to make an excellent showing. Taking Silva based on bad matchup for Leben style-wise and has seemed to faded out some.

I like a small play on Silva here. I'm thinking about a .25u to .75u play on Silva, still watching to see how the line moves though. Thoughts?

Just because of what you and GCAD said earlier, I threw .25u on him at +170. For the record though, I hope Leben takes this one. He doesn't want to go 0-3 and I don't want to see him cut.

Leben did give a good interview though where if what he says is true then we may see a much better Leben than the one who was in the cage with Jake Rosholt. Here's a quote:

“I will be training with Nate Quarry. They have phenomenal strength and conditioning. I just need to eat sleep and train. I want to do nothing but focus on my fight. The fact of the matter is that everybody needs a coach. I need eyes on the outside to help me. Nate provides that for me. When I get there I will just let them take the reins. I have faith and trust in them. Even though I can coach, when it is my turn to fight I become the fighter and I trust them to mold me.”

Full interview: http://www.mmahawaii.com/latest-news/19 ... ation.html

[UKDonkbet]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I think this bet makes money over the long run. Leben will play right into Silva's hands. Leben does better in fights where he plays the bully and not so good when he can't push around and out-'brawl' his opponents. Silva will not be bullied. He will look to push around Leben not visa versa. .25u is a profitable play here.


Quarry had me shitting my pants in last fight with Credour. Maybe he is making a move to full time coaching. Its amazing he came back from that back disc replacement surgery anyway.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Quarry had me shitting my pants in last fight with Credour. Maybe he is making a move to full time coaching. Its amazing he came back from that back disc replacement surgery anyway.

Yeah, me too. At that point I had already lost 2.5u on Cantwell and was in no mood to dig a deeper hole. That fight was a lot closer than I expected it to be.

[UKDonkbet]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Quarry had me shitting my pants in last fight with Credour. Maybe he is making a move to full time coaching. Its amazing he came back from that back disc replacement surgery anyway.

Yeah, me too. At that point I had already lost 2.5u on Cantwell and was in no mood to dig a deeper hole. That fight was a lot closer than I expected it to be.

Yeah I'm really going to take notice of Credour's next line. He really showed me a lot that night that I hadn't seen out of him til that fight. Timmy might get a weak line again and I'd like to get it soon enough to capitalize.