UFN 20 Bets

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Either I got a boner reading this, or I threw up a little in my mouth. One of the two.

Boner.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

So we're looking at a 25% increase within the last 7 events. I'd like to keep that up.

Better than the market'll get you most normal years. . . and you have more control over it.

This is my whole thing. I just want to beat the S&P 500 index, with less volatility. If I happen to get 200%, awesome. But I would be happy with 30%.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Dude, if you can get 25% per YEAR, you will be rich if you manage it.

Didn't you say you've tripled your bankroll twice, both within one year periods?

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Now that I look at the date for UFC 107 it looks like that 25% increase came in almost exactly one month.

Damn, if I could do that EVERY month, that shit would be SWEEEEET.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Dude, if you can get 25% per YEAR, you will be rich if you manage it.

Didn't you say you've tripled your bankroll twice, both within one year periods?

yes. But I basically bet my entire bankroll several times... it was too risky to work over a long period.

That said, I am up about 45% since November (90% based on the 50U I use in my blog).

I did get 600% over 2 years though... but my first few bets were all or nothing plays. I knew better even then, but I wanted to play with more money.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

yes. But I basically bet my entire bankroll several times... it was too risky to work over a long period.

You see, I would never do that. I get nervous just making 3u plays. You'll notice I very rarely go over that amount, with the only recent exceptions that I can think of right now being 4u on Faber this weekend, 5u on BJ at 107, and I've got 4u on Marquardt at 109. Oh, and there was 3.5u on Roy Jones Jr. and we know how that turned out.

That said, I am up about 45% since November (90% based on the 50U I use in my blog).

If you were going by your own guidelines of a 50 unit bankroll, would you still make so many 5u plays?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

If you were going by your own guidelines of a 50 unit bankroll, would you still make so many 5u plays?

yeah, I did that up until fairly recently, I was making 10% bets pretty regularly. The way I set my lines, it is still less a lot than full Kelly though.

I am rying to design my system to be low voltility. I don't like losing bets. I used to plat A LOT of poker and I learned a lot about my habits doing that. So I basically try to eliminate every fight where I am not very confident in the outcome. As of yet, I have never experienced more than a 15% dip. I know at some point I will lose a few favorites in a row, it just hasnt happened yet. I have lost several bets in a row, but it has always been on underdogs, so the units werent as much, and it didnt hurt me too much.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

I'd just like to announce that after this event, for the first time I've surpassed the 50 unit mark. It's nice to have a little breathing room.

Well done bro!

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

yeah, I did that up until fairly recently, I was making 10% bets pretty regularly. The way I set my lines, it is still less a lot than full Kelly though.

I am rying to design my system to be low voltility. I don't like losing bets. I used to plat A LOT of poker and I learned a lot about my habits doing that. So I basically try to eliminate every fight where I am not very confident in the outcome. As of yet, I have never experienced more than a 15% dip. I know at some point I will lose a few favorites in a row, it just hasnt happened yet. I have lost several bets in a row, but it has always been on underdogs, so the units werent as much, and it didnt hurt me too much.

Interesting.

You see, before betting on MMA, most of my gambling experience came from blackjack. I never actively counted cards myself, but I read and studied a lot on card counting, and I know that card counters rely on volume to make their money. For most counters, their edge against the house is usually very low, typically between 1% and 2%. They know they won't win every hand, but over time, even with that tiny edge they will beat the house and will make money. They also know that it's in their benefit to bet on EVERY hand where they have a theoretical advantage, because it's only in the long run that they're going to get rich.

I take the same approach to betting on MMA. I try to bet on EVERY fight where I think I have an edge, because if in fact I am only betting on +EV wagers, then it's to my benefit to not pass up any opportunities. Your method seems to be very effective for you, but I think that in the long run by being so cautious you are actually giving up money in favor of less variance.

Also, I get VERY nervous having such big bets on any fight. I'd usually rather bet 1u on 5 guys that I feel good about than 5u on 1 guy. I guess I just don't like having so many eggs in one basket.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Interesting.

You see, before betting on MMA, most of my gambling experience came from blackjack. I never actively counted cards myself, but I read and studied a lot on card counting, and I know that card counters rely on volume to make their money. For most counters, their edge against the house is usually very low, typically between 1% and 2%. They know they won't win every hand, but over time, even with that tiny edge they will beat the house and will make money. They also know that it's in their benefit to bet on EVERY hand where they have a theoretical advantage, because it's only in the long run that they're going to get rich.

I take the same approach to betting on MMA. I try to bet on EVERY fight where I think I have an edge, because if in fact I am only betting on +EV wagers, then it's to my benefit to not pass up any opportunities. Your method seems to be very effective for you, but I think that in the long run by being so cautious you are actually giving up money in favor of less variance.

Also, I get VERY nervous having such big bets on any fight. I'd usually rather bet 1u on 5 guys that I feel good about than 5u on 1 guy. I guess I just don't like having so many eggs in one basket.

Yes, I am know I am giving up some money in favor of low variance. But I learned my lesson before... I understand the +EV will play out over time... It is just that I have gambled enough in my life (in both casinos and in the stock market- where I still keep the majority of my assets) to know that my ego/habits/tilt will not allow me to take a string of losses. I would lose a few bets, then start raising the stakes to catch up. I hate the feeling of being down.

I experienced this alot playing poker. Even though I am a +EV player, I never managed to make money consistently because I never properly managed my bankroll. Any time I lose to a lucky river card, I chase the loss. I think it is just in my nature, and after 3 years of playing poker I never could get it whipped. It is not tilt necessarily, I don't get mad, and intellectually I know it will happen, but I just hate losing. So it is more of a habit thing than a money thing.

If you ever listen to Dave Ramsey, he talks a lot about habits. He advocates paying off all of your debt before you invest. This does not make sense mathmatically. You can get a better return on your investment than the juice for the debt many times. But it does feel a lot better, and therefore makes you stick to it. That is his theory.


Here is something else: This guy that won the world poker tour a few years ago... after he won he said he had to pay back his mom the $10k entrance fee (he lived with his mom). Here is this top of the world player, and has to borrow from his mom to enter the tourney. That said to me, skill is not even half of the equation.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

^^^^ Good thoughts and some good advice, as well. I actually think that we're not that different in our attitudes, just our approaches. I also hate to lose and hate being down in any significant way, which is why I very rarely make bets that are bigger than 3u and even 3u puts me way on edge. (Really, anything more then 1.5u is considered a "big bet" to me).

It's actually my dislike of losing a lot of money that keeps me from throwing a lot of big bets on guys like you do. You say that eventually you will lose a few favorites in a row . . . you probably will, just as I will (just as I have, actually) . . . and I don't want it to be to the tune of 15 units when it happens. Hence, I spread my money around in the hopes that I will at least win SOME money, or at the very least minimize my losses.

I actually lost 8 fights in a row not too long ago. I went 0-5 at DREAM 11 and 0-3 at MFC 22. These were shady bets that I took mostly because of what I heard from others and/or half-assed research, but still, that's a hell of a lot of losing. I should've done better than that flipping a coin. So shit happens.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Nothing wrong with that approach at all. I guess I just don't see 5% is that BIG of a bet, when you are looking @ an 75-80% favorite. A lo of guys bet 5% on even odds... against teh monet line, I think 5% is pretty damn conservative really.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Nothing wrong with that approach at all. I guess I just don't see 5% is that BIG of a bet, when you are looking @ an 75-80% favorite. A lo of guys bet 5% on even odds... against teh monet line, I think 5% is pretty damn conservative really.

With a 100 unit bankroll, it's not bad. But if you were playing with your suggested 50 unit bankroll, then that's 10% and that would be rough for me.

Your 5u is a 2.5u for me, which isn't too bad, though I wouldn't want to lose it on a regular basis.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

^^^^ Good thoughts and some good advice, as well. I actually think that we're not that different in our attitudes, just our approaches. I also hate to lose and hate being down in any significant way, which is why I very rarely make bets that are bigger than 3u and even 3u puts me way on edge. (Really, anything more then 1.5u is considered a "big bet" to me).

It's actually my dislike of losing a lot of money that keeps me from throwing a lot of big bets on guys like you do. You say that eventually you will lose a few favorites in a row . . . you probably will, just as I will (just as I have, actually) . . . and I don't want it to be to the tune of 15 units when it happens. Hence, I spread my money around in the hopes that I will at least win SOME money, or at the very least minimize my losses.

I actually lost 8 fights in a row not too long ago. I went 0-5 at DREAM 11 and 0-3 at MFC 22. These were shady bets that I took mostly because of what I heard from others and/or half-assed research, but still, that's a hell of a lot of losing. I should've done better than that flipping a coin. So shit happens.

I saw this on MSN MOney homepage this morning... this is almost exactly what we were talking about. I thought I invented this line of thinking.

"Success at both investing and gambling, it turns out, has much to do with controlling emotions. And playing a little poker can help you recognize, and avoid, emotional traps that endanger your most important stack of chips -- your portfolio. But you need to know what to look for."

"By playing some poker, "you can find out your tendencies to make emotional mistakes, and then you can guard against them," says Frank Murtha, a behavioral-finance consultant with a doctorate in counseling psychology whose dissertation explored the effect of psychological errors in gambling."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/home-dyn.aspx?cp-documentID=23248143

Coincidence? We are being watched my friend.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

What an odd coincidence indeed!