UFC 115 discussion/odds

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I'm waiting till I see the weigh ins before making final decisions

SPX ,ZY what you betting?

Not sure yet. I actually have not made a single bet.

To be honest, I am having a really hard time making picks for this card and I don't really like any of the lines.

You usually have have 5 picks per card why is this one hard to pick for you? What you stuck on?

[SPX]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

You usually have have 5 picks per card why is this one hard to pick for you? What you stuck on?

I can just see every fight that I'd be interested in betting on go either way.

Chuck/Franklin
Condit/MacDonald
Griffin/Dunham
Barry/Crocop
Kampmann/Thiago

Everyone has a way to win here. There's not really a single fight on this card where I'm like, "Yeah, that guy's gonna win."

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

Ill be on HD, thats about it for me.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

Ill be on HD, thats about it for me.

I'm thinking about dumping my Liddell bet since I can get a .3 unit free bet on him since the line has dropped so much and just putting a double bet on Barry. I want to see the weighins first

[Svino]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.


Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?

A while back I worked out the equivalent of the Kelly formula for an Arb bet, and if anyone's interested, I could dig it out. But I think the key is to figure out which category of Arb bet you would be making. Is it:

A) the case where the line has shifted so much that you are getting value on both sides of the line? If so, you want to make a bet on the new guy that is big enough to not only "even out" your first bet, but also act as an appropriate sized additional bet in its own right.

or

B) The case where you don't think you have an edge on the new line, but you want to reduce risk (optimizing expected long term growth while reducing immediate expected value). Here you will probably want to arb out incompletely, the degree of arbitrage depending on how much negative value you think there is on the new line.


Also, I agree that there may a lot of live dogs on this card. Still haven't decided on my final bets though.

[ManBoobKilla]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

You usually have have 5 picks per card why is this one hard to pick for you? What you stuck on?

I can just see every fight that I'd be interested in betting on go either way.

Chuck/Franklin
Condit/MacDonald
Griffin/Dunham
Barry/Crocop
Kampmann/Thiago

Everyone has a way to win here. There's not really a single fight on this card where I'm like, "Yeah, that guy's gonna win."

I personally think that Barry is a very good bet. He is a destroyer and the only thing that was keeping me from really unloading my units on him was the fact that I thought CroCop would have significant reach on him but I checked their reaches out and even though barry is shorter he has a 74" reach compared to 73" for CroCop. I feel that CroCop doesnt have it anymore, I mean it took him 3 rounds to finish a d level fighter in Perosh. I also feel Thiago is a very solid bet as welll.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I personally think that Barry is a very good bet. He is a destroyer and the only thing that was keeping me from really unloading my units on him was the fact that I thought CroCop would have significant reach on him but I checked their reaches out and even though barry is shorter he has a 74" reach compared to 73" for CroCop. I feel that CroCop doesnt have it anymore, I mean it took him 3 rounds to finish a d level fighter in Perosh. I also feel Thiago is a very solid bet as welll.

Yeah, maybe. I dunno. I'm just not feeling it on this card for some reason.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

Just watched the Weigh ins .These are the only notes I took:

David Loiseau didnt look too trim imo

Matt winman was 157 had to naked to get 156 and barely got 156

Tyson griffin is way smaller than Dunham

Rich Franklin looked bigger than Liddell

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I'm arb out of my Liddell bet I took Franklin at -120 (should have took it -110) .So I'll win .2 units if Liddell wins and nothing if Franklin does

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I have over 17u on Barry and 13.3u on Thiago. Thinking of lowering those some now.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I have over 17u on Barry and 13.3u on Thiago. Thinking of lowering those some now.

LOL you not like the weigh ins either?

[zY|]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I've bet nothing either. I wanted MacDonald as an underdog but I guess that was wishful thinking. I may hit Rothwell at -170. Yvel is terrible and doesn't belong in the UFC.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I've bet nothing either. I wanted MacDonald as an underdog but I guess that was wishful thinking. I may hit Rothwell at -170. Yvel is terrible and doesn't belong in the UFC.

I would have bet it at matchbook for you

matchbook had Macdonald at +170 for two days before the lines came out

[zY|]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I procrastinate a lot. I really hadn't even thought about it tbh.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I dont like that Franklin is bigger than Liddell thats why I arb'ed out of the bet.


I still win 20 bucks if Liddell wins