WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

[SPX]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Pulver is the dog now. Bowles opened at -310 so I guess I wasnt crazy

Indeed, sir. You were right. I like it. I immediately rushed to Bookmaker and by the time I hit the "submit" button Cruz had already dropped from +250 to +235. I still like that bet, though.

I see Pulver is now +120. If that line holds until I get home, then I'll take him for .5u. Pulver's my man.

If Torres stays at -270 then I'll jump on him, too. I think he wins this one probably 80% of the time, so that's a good price. I just don't think Benavidez is going to be able to deal with Torres' height/reach/experience/pace.

[Thewiseman]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Parlays for WEC
Lammas, Paixao, Castillo, Koch, Jorgensen, Bart, Davis, Vasquez, Torres and Bowles .03u to win 5.93u

Lammas, Paixao, Castillo, Jorgensen, Vasquez, Torres and Bowles .16u to win 1.76u

Bart, Davis, Vasquez, Torres, and Bowles .06u for 1.16u

Total risk for parlays is .26u.

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

I got 5U on Jorgensen

I am definitely considering and likely to bet on Bowles. Cruz hasn't finished ANY of his last 4 opponents in the WEC, and I highly doubt he is going to start with Bowles. Bowles has a chin of iron, fists of steel, strong wrestling, and strong subs. I just can't see Cruz fending him off for five rounds and winning the fight. Bowles has steamrolled top guys like Torres, Page, Ribeiro, Galvao, and Valencia finishing all of them and dominating. I keep reading about Cruz's reach and everything, but I am sure Torres had a pretty good reach on him as well

I won't even consider touching the Torres fight. For one, that is one of my biggest losses of all time before I learned about betting conservatively. Secondly, he barley beat Mizugaki, and Mizugaki seemed like top of the food chain after that performance only to get a controversial split win over Curran and lose to Scott J. Torres should be able to win but if he can't KO or sub Joseph, then Benavidez may win on points with TD's. Not to mention Torres had his lights turned off in that last fight and was knocked down fairly easily. Not to mention Benavidez has several different subs on his record so his sub defense should be decent, and Torres weakness in wrestling is Joseph's strength which should always be red flag went betting IMO.

I would like to stay conservative on this card because I will be dropping loads (haha) on the UFC on VS card.

[SPX]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Holy shit!

Pulver at +145 on Bodog. I really hope that holds until I get home. I can't imagine it staying that high for long. He's a legend fighting a guy who's 0-2 in the WEC.

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Holy shit!

Pulver at +145 on Bodog. I really hope that holds until I get home. I can't imagine it staying that high for long. He's a legend fighting a guy who's 0-2 in the WEC.

I wouldn't touch that line with the governments money! Vasquez may be 0-2 but both of those losses were to really good guys and by a split decision. So that means it was close enough that one judge thought he won. Pulver is a legend that I have much respect for, but the truth is he's fighting because he has to and not because his heart is in it. Pulver has lost his quickness, his confidence, and his chin. I don't think his power is necessarily gone which is why I won't be betting on it.

[SPX]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

I wouldn't touch that line with the governments money! Vasquez may be 0-2 but both of those losses were to really good guys and by a split decision. So that means it was close enough that one judge thought he won. Pulver is a legend that I have much respect for, but the truth is he's fighting because he has to and not because his heart is in it. Pulver has lost his quickness, his confidence, and his chin. I don't think his power is necessarily gone which is why I won't be betting on it.

Admittedly, sometimes I show my support for a fighter with my money. If I was thinking strictly in terms of +EV/-EV, I would just stay away from this one. As it stands, Jens gets half a unit.

As for Pulver "fighting because he has to and not because his heart is in it," I think that's halfway accurate. He's made it clear that he needs the money. But I also think he just likes to fight and he's a fighter at heart and he still has that competitive drive. Also, I think he wants to make a last stand and go out with a few wins on his record before retiring. A good comparison would be Liddell. He's just not ready to hang 'em up.

As for Pulver having lost his skills, remember that he destroyed Cub Swanson in something like 15 seconds in his WEC debut. Since then he's lost to Faber (a championship-caliber fighter), Garcia (this would a bad loss, should've never happened, and I got Jens in the rematch), and Grispi (13-1 and he might end up making serious waves in the division).

Jens Pulver 4 Life, Bitches

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

I wouldn't touch that line with the governments money! Vasquez may be 0-2 but both of those losses were to really good guys and by a split decision. So that means it was close enough that one judge thought he won. Pulver is a legend that I have much respect for, but the truth is he's fighting because he has to and not because his heart is in it. Pulver has lost his quickness, his confidence, and his chin. I don't think his power is necessarily gone which is why I won't be betting on it.

Admittedly, sometimes I show my support for a fighter with my money. If I was thinking strictly in terms of +EV/-EV, I would just stay away from this one. As it stands, Jens gets half a unit.

As for Pulver "fighting because he has to and not because his heart is in it," I think that's halfway accurate. He's made it clear that he needs the money. But I also think he just likes to fight and he's a fighter at heart and he still has that competitive drive. Also, I think he wants to make a last stand and go out with a few wins on his record before retiring. A good comparison would be Liddell. He's just not ready to hang 'em up.

As for Pulver having lost his skills, remember that he destroyed Cub Swanson in something like 15 seconds in his WEC debut. Since then he's lost to Faber (a championship-caliber fighter), Garcia (this would a bad loss, should've never happened, and I got Jens in the rematch), and Grispi (13-1 and he might end up making serious waves in the division).

Jens Pulver 4 Life, Bitches

Haha no doubt. I will definitely be pulling for Jens, I just won't wager on it. I was there when he announced he was going to retire after that loss to Grispi, and it was hard to see.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Jens Pulver 4 Life, Bitches

[SPX]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Excuse me?

[SPX]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Haha no doubt. I will definitely be pulling for Jens, I just won't wager on it. I was there when he announced he was going to retire after that loss to Grispi, and it was hard to see.

It will be interesting to see what Jens decides to do after this weekend. Regardless of the outcome, he'll either keep marching forward or he'll retire obviously, but I could see him making either choice for all kinds of reasons.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Just fuckin with you X.

I hope the guy does well, I always liked him.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

BJ did take a couple years off his life with that choke in the second fight though.

[SPX]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Just dropped 3u on Torres and .5u on Pulver.

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Final bets:
5U on Jorgensen
3.5U on Bowles

[Mr. IWS]

Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz

Final bets:
5U on Jorgensen
3.5U on Bowles

GL man.