UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Well I'm still convinced his grappling and submission skills are enough to carry him a way's through the mid level opposition for the most part. In the last two years he's choked out Ishida, gone the distance with Aoki, Spencer Fisher, and Fabricio Camoes(the guy who Batman just choked out the other night). He's getting up there in age but he's still got the tools to be a fighter at his age. This fight is made for Uno, since Gleison Tibau has a long history of going to decision. He's not the most explosive fighter in the division, and he's likely to give Uno 15 minutes to pull something off. That combined with the line are odds I feel good about.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I am kind of on the fence.

Uno's performance against Fisher really was kind of uninspiring. Spencer Fisher is a good fighter, but he's nothing more than a mid-level guy and he always will be. Uno should've won that fight convincingly.

I did think his performance against Camoes was good overall, and in fact, I think he won that fight even WITHOUT the point deduction, much less with it. The fact that it was a draw was bullshit and the fact that Camoes would've won without the point deduction was mega-bullshit.

As for Uno's sub skills, I really doubt they'll make much of a difference here. Tibau has only been subbed once in his career and I think he can stay out of danger.

I honestly think it's going to come down to who's the best wrestler. If they were the same size, then Uno should win, I'd think. But not only is Tibau OVERSIZED in the division, but Uno is UNDERSIZED. This is worse than Edgar VS Maynard in that regard, I think.

If I can get Uno at +200 I might make a play. Not sure. I like Tibau in this fight, but his line is unacceptable.

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Uno's at +207 at Betus.com and +230 at 5dimes.

[zY|]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Tibau is going to gas, and were this a 5 round fight like grown men should be fighting, Uno easily takes the win. As it stands he's probably going to lose 29-28 and be in control at the end.

He won the Fisher fight too IMO.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Uno's at +207 at Betus.com and +230 at 5dimes.

Looks like +240 at Bodog. That might be worth a little play. Maybe just enough to make a unit.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

What's everyone think about Torres/Volkmann?

I'm thinking Torres might be a good play if he's around even odds.

[Johnny Unreliable]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

First post. I regularly post over on MMA scientists blog and lurk here but I thought I'd finally make an account.

Was wondering if North Carolina's MMA rule set plays a factor in anyone's decision on Tibau/Uno play? In NC they have two weigh in's one the day before and one the day of the fight and you can't weigh in more than 13 pounds heavier than the day before. Now Tibau cuts a ton of weight, I swear he makes the cut from at least 170-175. I was considering waiting until the weigh ins to see how he looked. If he looks smaller than usual a play on Uno might not be a bad value considering Tibau's power grappling style. Although it could also fix his 3rd round cardio problem as well I'm not sure.

Other than that I'm 5u on both Nelson and Florian. Considering Okami as well but the line sucks.


Thanks for all the great discussion guys. Been lurking here for awhile.

[zY|]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

^^Good question. But another question is will they actually enforce it? The UFC pretty much does what it wants usually.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

First post. I regularly post over on MMA scientists blog and lurk here but I thought I'd finally make an account.

Was wondering if North Carolina's MMA rule set plays a factor in anyone's decision on Tibau/Uno play? In NC they have two weigh in's one the day before and one the day of the fight and you can't weigh in more than 13 pounds heavier than the day before. Now Tibau cuts a ton of weight, I swear he makes the cut from at least 170-175. I was considering waiting until the weigh ins to see how he looked. If he looks smaller than usual a play on Uno might not be a bad value considering Tibau's power grappling style. Although it could also fix his 3rd round cardio problem as well I'm not sure.

Other than that I'm 5u on both Nelson and Florian. Considering Okami as well but the line sucks.


Thanks for all the great discussion guys. Been lurking here for awhile.

Welcome to the forum. We're always looking for good posters. (Of course, that means if you're not a good poster then GET THE FUCK OUT NOW! j/k)

Someone over on Sherdog actually just reminded me of North Carolina's rule. I think that's very interesting and a very good point. Not sure how accurate it is, but on Wikipedia it says that Tibau has weighed "up to 183 pounds by the time he enters the cage." So I wonder if this is going to be a particularly hard cut for him, and if he's going to be drained and just not feeling good for this fight. (Think Griffin/Franca.)

As for waiting, I'm not sure that's the best idea. It's a gamble, but there are probably others thinking what you're thinking, and a lot of times if a fighter doesn't look good at the weigh ins or if they miss weight then the lines take a hit.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

First post. I regularly post over on MMA scientists blog and lurk here but I thought I'd finally make an account.

Was wondering if North Carolina's MMA rule set plays a factor in anyone's decision on Tibau/Uno play? In NC they have two weigh in's one the day before and one the day of the fight and you can't weigh in more than 13 pounds heavier than the day before. Now Tibau cuts a ton of weight, I swear he makes the cut from at least 170-175. I was considering waiting until the weigh ins to see how he looked. If he looks smaller than usual a play on Uno might not be a bad value considering Tibau's power grappling style. Although it could also fix his 3rd round cardio problem as well I'm not sure.

Other than that I'm 5u on both Nelson and Florian. Considering Okami as well but the line sucks.


Thanks for all the great discussion guys. Been lurking here for awhile.

Welcome aboard bro! GL on the picks. Im leaning Florini's way too.

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I think they'll enforce the rules, seeing as they are trying to get into other states that are reluctant to allow MMA. They did just abide by NJSAC when they forfeited 12.5% of Markhams purse to Diaz for coming in overweight. I see no reason not to enforce these funky ass rules, as stupid as they may be. If a fighter can make the cut at weigh ins I see no reason to penalize him by putting a max on his gain through rehydration and whatnot between then and fight time. If Thiago Alves and Rumble want to cut from 210 and 220 to 170 then let them do it if they can manage.

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I don't think Torres is a good bet against Volkmann. Christmas went to decision with Paulo Thiago, plus he fights mostly at 170, Yeah he got choked out by Martin Kampmann but he's been fighting better opposition in those two than Torres who dropped a decision to Guillard. I just don't like the way Torres carries himself on the feet. He charges in swinging wildly(just like he did with Guillard) and I just think he's going to get caught sooner than later.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

He charges in swinging wildly(just like he did with Guillard) and I just think he's going to get caught sooner than later.

Yeah, but not against Volkmann who has some of the shittiest standup I've ever seen and who gets dropped in every fight. (Or at least his two in the UFC.)

Plus, what about the issue of this being the first time he's made the cut? That seems to fuck a lot of fighters up. . .

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

He wasn't a huge Welterweight to begin with, I don't think it will hurt him too much to be honest. He seemed to make the cut to 170 without too much difficulty at all.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Anyone else wondering where the rest of the lines are, by the way?