UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I think size advantages are extremely overrated. How often do you see a guy drop a weight class so he can have the advantage of being "bigger" and not do any better?

I'm not going to quote your entire post, though you make some good points and it was well thought out. I do want to address this, though.

In regard to your first statement, for the most part, it doesn't make a big difference because most guys are still relatively the same size. I think it's really the fighters who take the shit to the extreme--like Tibau, Rumble, and I guess you could even say Lesnar under the circumstances--who obviously win some fights so decisively simply because they're bigger and more powerful. And I'm aware of the whole "weight cutting is just another skill" argument, but honestly I'm like Yeah, some "skill". . .

As for your second point, the thing people fail to realize with this argument is that when guys drop weight, it's not like they just cut more water weight. They actually get smaller. I mean, who's going to argue that Diego Sanchez at WW is as big as Diego Sanchez at LW? Or Mike Swick's another example I could use. So a lot of times dropping weight like that is kind of for nothing, it seems to me. The biggest reason to jump weight classes is to try to face weaker competition.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

+175 or more on Volkmann when the lines go up on 5dimes, I will be throwing 0.5 units down on him. I think Emerson is a good underdog bet, and I like Winner at -165.. but I have to watch some of Oliveira's footage again

I saw that on Volkmann. I'm really hoping that Torres' line will get down to something acceptable. I really see Torres taking this fight, but I'm not overly confident. Volkmann is a no-gi grappling champ, after all.

I have also considered Emerson. Lentz looks tough though. I watched his fight with Oliveira and he is crafty and skilled. I'm trying to find his fight with Tavares, though. I can't seem to find it anywhere.

As for Winner/Oliveira, I think Winner should win if he can stop the takedowns. Oliveira looked like a good wrestler in the Lentz fight, but he also gasses early. How good is Winner's takedown defense? I haven't seen one of his fights in a while.

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Yes and no. Some guys cut weight because they are small in their division. Diego was a half example of that. He was a small welterweight but it really just boils down to him wanting to have a shot at a title in the end. Guys like Spencer Fisher though drop because it's more natural for them. Fisher was a successful Welterweight but he just felt better fighting at 155.

[zY|]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I think size advantages are extremely overrated. How often do you see a guy drop a weight class so he can have the advantage of being "bigger" and not do any better?

I'm not going to quote your entire post, though you make some good points and it was well thought out. I do want to address this, though.

In regard to your first statement, for the most part, it doesn't make a big difference because most guys are still relatively the same size. I think it's really the fighters who take the shit to the extreme--like Tibau, Rumble, and I guess you could even say Lesnar under the circumstances--who obviously win some fights so decisively simply because they're bigger and more powerful. And I'm aware of the whole "weight cutting is just another skill" argument, but honestly I'm like Yeah, some "skill". . .

As for your second point, the thing people fail to realize with this argument is that when guys drop weight, it's not like they just cut more water weight. They actually get smaller. I mean, who's going to argue that Diego Sanchez at WW is as big as Diego Sanchez at LW? Or Mike Swick's another example I could use. So a lot of times dropping weight like that is kind of for nothing, it seems to me. The biggest reason to jump weight classes is to try to face weaker competition.

Fair enough.

But of course, guys who really take it to the extreme like Rumble and Tibau, how well are they doing?

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Fair enough.

But of course, guys who really take it to the extreme like Rumble and Tibau, how well are they doing?

Yeah, it's gay though. I mean, sure, it's "by the rules" and whatnot, but it sucks to see some giant motherfucker like Tibau win fights ONLY because he's bigger. He's not even that great of a fighter. If he was the same size as everyone else he'd probably be cut by now.

Another example that pissed me off was Pulver/Vazquez. I don't know if Pulver looked like a BW or if Vazquez looked like an LW, but something was obviously fucked up there.

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Pulver lost that fight because he is getting older and losing a step. His game was never really suited for change. The days of Sprawl and Brawl are done. You cannot survive on that alone in MMA anymore. Guys are getting way too skilled at Striking and developing all around games too good to he held off by Sprawl and brawl no matter how good it is.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Pulver lost that fight because he is getting older and losing a step. His game was never really suited for change. The days of Sprawl and Brawl are done. You cannot survive on that alone in MMA anymore. Guys are getting way too skilled at Striking and developing all around games too good to he held off by Sprawl and brawl no matter how good it is.

Pulver was undersized in that fight. Just go watch it. Pulver looks like a regular guy. Vazquez looks like a roided out monster. (Not to say that he was . . . but in comparison).

As for sprawl and brawl, well, if you can't be taken down then it still works. Seems to work for JDS.

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Pulver was undersized in most of his fights, he always fought at 145 even against 155lb fighters and above. I realize Vazquez was bigger but that isn't to say his ground skills weren't far and away better than Pulvers. Pulver has simply lost a step and cannot compete with all these young guys who have a complete and well rounded skillset. Size has nothing to do with his lack of diversity and youth.

JDS isn't Sprawl and Brawl, he's more of a KO you before you can set anything else up kind of fighter. They haven't matched him up against anyone with Competent takedowns yet.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Pulver was undersized in most of his fights, he always fought at 145 even against 155lb fighters and above. I realize Vazquez was bigger but that isn't to say his ground skills weren't far and away better than Pulvers. Pulver has simply lost a step and cannot compete with all these young guys who have a complete and well rounded skillset. Size has nothing to do with his lack of diversity and youth.

War Pulver!

JDS isn't Sprawl and Brawl, he's more of a KO you before you can set anything else up kind of fighter. They haven't matched him up against anyone with Competent takedowns yet.

I agree for the most part. Gonzaga was a step in the right direction in that regard, but he's not at the level of Lesnar or Carwin in regard to takedowns.

Still, the fact that Gonzaga took him down and he popped right back up is impressive and shows us he's not completely clueless in regard to dealing with takedowns. He has been training with the Nogs after all.

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Oh I agree he isn't going to respond "What's takedowns?" if you asked him, but I still think he's relatively untested there. We won't know for a while though most likely. Since Reports say Cain is next in line and will take on the Lesnar/Carwin winner while JDS fights someone else in his rise. Training at Blackhouse can't leave JDS with nothing for a ground game, but we just don't know yet because he's so damn efficient at knocking mofo's out.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I hate to interrupt...

but I think Volkmann can beat Torres. Torres is most likely going to want to grapple with Volkmann... Volkmann has not shown it in the UFC yet, but he can grapple. He was a 3 time all american div. 1 college wrestler at minnesota and he has translated to some submission grappling success. He is a better pure wrestler than almost anyone @ LW in the UFC (that's right, better than Maynard, Guida, Sherk, Edgar). he was a big 10 champion at 165. Then he won the FILA the World Grappling title (which sounds really impressive, but FILA is not a major sub grappling org yet).

He is being criminally underrated based on losses to huge ww's. Thiago is quite thick and Kampmann was @ MW until recently.

I am not saying he will win, but I expect him to look quite a bit different with a smaller opponent.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

talked myself into it .5u on Volkmann @ +181

[poopoo333]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

talked myself into it .5u on Volkmann @ +181

I was thinking of taking him @+190, but I am still deciding if I should wait or not. People don't seem to realize his first two fights in the UFC were against top 10 WWs, and they were on fairly short notice. Volkmann also was fairly competitive with Thiago, and IIRC had Kampmann in some trouble before getting subbed.

edit: Also, Guillard is known to be choked out by decent grapplers, and Torres didn't get to do that. Just a thought.

[zY|]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

^^i think that's more a reflection on Guillards improvements than it is on Torres. I was impressed with him. I think this fight goes to a decision and could see it either way.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

^^i think that's more a reflection on Guillards improvements than it is on Torres. I was impressed with him. I think this fight goes to a decision and could see it either way.

Yeah maybe, but he is acting like he will be fighting for the title soon because he is now with Greg Jackson. He was with Jackson for a month for the Torres fight, and acted like that month has made him into a new fighter. Seems like he is trying to build some confidence up.