UFC 117

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

Zy, Silva might be easier to take down than Nate. Think about your guys arguments here. You give Sonnen (R-Or) no credit. You just say Nate had a bad gameplan and bad TDD. Where is your proof? Maybe Sonnen (R-Or) just has the best damn takedowns in the MW division. After all, he also took down Okami, does he also have bad TDD? MMA Scientists said Sonnen (R-Or) can not play in anyones guard(anyone with a legit guard) But my belief is that Ntae has a wicked guard, but that Chael has improved his top game, and is just a much gritier fighter now than he was years ago.

If you think Silva is going to be harder to takedown than Yushin or Nate, I think many of you are in for one more surprise.

I had a bet on Chael as a dog to beat Okami- because he was fighting a slightly worse wrestler. When 2 guys are good at the same thing, but one guy is a little better, its an easy pick.

I thought Chael would have a tought fight with Miller, I didn't bet it, but I thought it would be close.

I did bet on Maia to beat Sonnen, per my bjj > wrestling criteria. I won't say I expected Maia to ragdoll him though. I thougt he would jump guard.


I thought Nate would beat him, but I overestimated Nate's TD defense and ability to stand up. Sonnen has been subbed by the last 2 guys who were guard players (Maia and Filho). He did get by Creduer in 2006 but was then subbed by the next 2 guard players he fought- Horn amd Babalu (how many times does Horn have to sub him from his back- apparently 3) He is older now and is on a (gasp) three fight win streak. So do I think he suddenly just got magically better after 32 fights while training with the same camp with the same sparring partners and working part time? No, no I don't.

He is the same old Sonnen. He had a 5 fight win streak a few years back. He has been facing guys that match up well with him, just as he did the last time he went on a streak.

That said, I wouldn't be shocked if he beat Silva. But he sure as hell won't be finishing him... so Silva will have 25 minutes to figure out how to land one punch or knee or triangle. I do not think Sonnen will be able to be mistake free against someone with offense as dynamic as Anderson's.

As for Nate having a good guard... no. He hasn't subbed someone from guard in 10 years. I don't recall him sweeping anyone in the modern era. I thought he would stand up.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 117

I haven't bet anything on Sonnen vs. Silva yet, but I will probably bet on Sonnen, especially if the line improves. Sonnen has been given good matchups lately; I think if he fought Maia, Maia would beat him again. However, for the reasons several people have pointed out, Silva is also a pretty good matchup. The odds that Sonnen can LnP Silva are probably worth what Vegas is offering. Just to point something out: Sonnen doesn't need to control Silva for 25 min, he only needs to control him for 15 (maybe even as low as 9, 3 min in each of three rounds, if he doesn't get too blasted on the feet.) However, Silva does have a potent weapon in takedown defense that should not be overlooked: timidity. He may be able to stay far outside and pick his shots against a guy who is desperate to rush in on him.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

Yeah that was us. We lost money. All of us.

Speak for yourself I didnt have a dime on Nate lol

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

Sonnen backers=wasting there money imo .

Ever since Edgar-Penn people are trying to find the next huge upset. This isnt it move on

[SPX]

Re: UFC 117

Sonnen (R-Or) backers=wasting there money imo .

Ever since Edgar-Penn people are trying to find the next huge upset. This isnt it move on

I'll take him at +400.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

Sonnen (R-Or) backers=wasting there money imo .

Ever since Edgar-Penn people are trying to find the next huge upset. This isnt it move on

I'll take him at +400.

When it comes time for UFC 117 I'll give you +400

I dont even think Sonnen can win 1 out of 10 times.

I rarely bet anything over -300 unless I think its a lock and I'll be betting Silva in this one .

[Svino]

Re: UFC 117

Sonnen really does seem to be going nuts, though. Referencing his twitter account, then denying it was his several times, only to reference it again a little later? Claiming he was never beaten at MW? I wonder how much of a toll this "2006 legal issue" is taking on his sanity.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

I'm wondering what the legal issue is

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 117

Was that serious, or sarcastic. Was there not anyone on Sonnen (R-Or) at those dog odds?

I took Sonnen by dec @+500 for a unit.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 117

Zy, Silva might be easier to take down than Nate. Think about your guys arguments here. You give Sonnen (R-Or) no credit. You just say Nate had a bad gameplan and bad TDD. Where is your proof? Maybe Sonnen (R-Or) just has the best damn takedowns in the MW division. After all, he also took down Okami, does he also have bad TDD? MMA Scientists said Sonnen (R-Or) can not play in anyones guard(anyone with a legit guard) But my belief is that Ntae has a wicked guard, but that Chael has improved his top game, and is just a much gritier fighter now than he was years ago.

If you think Silva is going to be harder to takedown than Yushin or Nate, I think many of you are in for one more surprise.

I am really torn on this fight. On one hand , I see Sonnen getting the take down and mauling Silva, Silva gasses, and he keeps it up for 5 rds. But its also hard to see him doing it for 5 rds without getting KO'd or subbed. Silva is getting better with using his footwork to avoid the TD. I currently have Silva 7.2u @-360, but I took that knowing I can hedge if I want. I do think Sonnen is the best wrestler @ middleweight. And I dont think Nate has a wicked guard. I was also on Sonnen vs Okami for 2u.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Scientist, so Nate has a crappy guard because he has not subbed someone from it in 10 years. Besides Chael, who has had Nate on his back for more than 15 seconds. Come on man. ONCE AGAIN, Nate does not have bad TDD. He was just put on his back by a VERY good MMA wrestler who would not be denied the takedown.

The Sonnen that was tapped earlier in his carreer would have tapped against Nate also. Fighters do improve. Weird to see a guy being judged on fights that happened years ago, but most recent fights just being ignored.

BTW Scientists, you now say that Nate is a favorable matchup for Chael, but that is in hindsight. that way you can never be wrong, you can always just explain it away. I'm also not looking at this as a pick em, because it is not. IMO, Chael @ big dog odds is the wise play here. Any bettor can play -300 or -400 guys. But those guys eventually get themselves in trouble.

Scientist, you also say that you would not be surprised to see Chael beat him. Well, then hell, the argument is over...We agree, Chael is a good bet at big dog odds.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Actually, if we are going back into ancient history...Go watch some of Nates earlier fights....much earlier, he actually has a good guard game.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 117

Weird to see a guy being judged on fights that happened years ago, but most recent fights just being ignored.

I think Chael losing to Maia has a lot to do with the notion of Chael's lack of sub defense continuing to propagate unto the present day.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 117

Why so adversarial? Pretty clearly you're infringing on my territory here.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Zy, Silva might be easier to take down than Nate. Think about your guys arguments here. You give Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) no credit. You just say Nate had a bad gameplan and bad TDD. Where is your proof? Maybe Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) just has the best damn takedowns in the MW division. After all, he also took down Okami, does he also have bad TDD? MMA Scientists said Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) can not play in anyones guard(anyone with a legit guard) But my belief is that Ntae has a wicked guard, but that Chael has improved his top game, and is just a much gritier fighter now than he was years ago.

If you think Silva is going to be harder to takedown than Yushin or Nate, I think many of you are in for one more surprise.

I am really torn on this fight. On one hand , I see Sonnen (R-Or) getting the take down and mauling Silva, Silva gasses, and he keeps it up for 5 rds. But its also hard to see him doing it for 5 rds without getting KO'd or subbed. Silva is getting better with using his footwork to avoid the TD. I currently have Silva 7.2u @-360, but I took that knowing I can hedge if I want. I do think Sonnen (R-Or) is the best wrestler @ middleweight. And I dont think Nate has a wicked guard. I was also on Sonnen (R-Or) vs Okami for 2u.

Wiseman, just because you have not seen it, does not mean he does not have it. Nate worked guard in some of his earlier fights, before he became a beast. Kinda reminds me of the people he think GSP's striking stinks because he is not stopping dudes with strikes anymore. Why the hell would Nate work guard, when he can take dudes down and smash them. BUT, he did work guard early in his carreer when he needed to.