UFC 117

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Weird to see a guy being judged on fights that happened years ago, but most recent fights just being ignored.

I think Chael losing to Maia has a lot to do with the notion of Chael's lack of sub defense continuing to propagate unto the present day.

I agree, but I think it was more of a case of Chael just getting surprised. I think that was one of the sweetest subs eva.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

I think the legal issue has to do with a real estate deal of sorts. I think I read that somewhere. Whitewater type thing.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 117

Zy, Silva might be easier to take down than Nate. Think about your guys arguments here. You give Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) (R-Or) no credit. You just say Nate had a bad gameplan and bad TDD. Where is your proof? Maybe Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) (R-Or) just has the best damn takedowns in the MW division. After all, he also took down Okami, does he also have bad TDD? MMA Scientists said Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) (R-Or) can not play in anyones guard(anyone with a legit guard) But my belief is that Ntae has a wicked guard, but that Chael has improved his top game, and is just a much gritier fighter now than he was years ago.

If you think Silva is going to be harder to takedown than Yushin or Nate, I think many of you are in for one more surprise.

I am really torn on this fight. On one hand , I see Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) getting the take down and mauling Silva, Silva gasses, and he keeps it up for 5 rds. But its also hard to see him doing it for 5 rds without getting KO'd or subbed. Silva is getting better with using his footwork to avoid the TD. I currently have Silva 7.2u @-360, but I took that knowing I can hedge if I want. I do think Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) is the best wrestler @ middleweight. And I dont think Nate has a wicked guard. I was also on Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) vs Okami for 2u.

Wiseman, just because you have not seen it, does not mean he does not have it. Nate worked guard in some of his earlier fights, before he became a beast. Kinda reminds me of the people he think GSP's striking stinks because he is not stopping dudes with strikes anymore. Why the hell would Nate work guard, when he can take dudes down and smash them. BUT, he did work guard early in his carreer when he needed to.

Im sure he has a good guard, but not a wicked one. I seen his guard for 15 min vs Sonnen.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

The Sonnen (R-Or) that was tapped earlier in his carreer would have tapped against Nate also. Fighters do improve. Weird to see a guy being judged on fights that happened years ago, but most recent fights just being ignored..

It is just that nothing has changed. He still trains with the same guys at the same camp that does not have a bjj coach. He has been fighting forever, I just don't buy the theory that he just magically got better all of the sudden.

BTW Scientists, you now say that Nate is a favorable matchup for Chael, but that is in hindsight. that way you can never be wrong, you can always just explain it away. I'm also not looking at this as a pick em, because it is not. IMO, Chael @ big dog odds is the wise play here. Any bettor can play -300 or -400 guys. But those guys eventually get themselves in trouble...

I disagree with both statements, but really and totally disagree with the second one.

Miller was a tough matchup for him, Chael won that with his hands and sprawl. Paulo Filho was a tough match for him as well. I am honest about these things. I am wrong all the time and freely admit it.

MMA gambling is not about showing how awesome you are at picking underdogs. I make almost all of my money on the favorites. It is about beating the line. If you bet -600 fighters and win 9/10, you are going to make money. There is no inherent superiority to picking dogs, and it doesn't mean you have some super MMA knowledge. Its about winning at a greater percentage than the line indicates. I promise you I can beat the line picking nothing but -400 fights over a year. I will side bet you $1000 that I can make a profit using any line you want up to -600.

Scientist, you also say that you would not be surprised to see Chael beat him. Well, then hell, the argument is over...We agree, Chael is a good bet at big dog odds.

No, we don't. I don't give a 30% chance. I would not be surpised, but I wouldn't take him unto +450 or so.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 117

"Miller was a tough matchup for him, Chael won that with his hands and sprawl."

I watched that yesterday...Chael won by taking him down and pounding him for 3 rounds.

[AC88]

Re: UFC 117

I think Chael is a great bet. But I do believe Silva is going to be harder to take down than Marquardt. Not because he has better wrestling, but because of his movement and distancing. He only got taken down once by Leites and didn't get taken down once against Maia. However, I think the odds of Chael LNP'ing Silva to a decision are much better than the odds of Silva submitting and or knocking him out.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

"Miller was a tough matchup for him, Chael won that with his hands and sprawl."

I watched that yesterday...Chael won by taking him down and pounding him for 3 rounds.

You beat me to it.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

The Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or) that was tapped earlier in his carreer would have tapped against Nate also. Fighters do improve. Weird to see a guy being judged on fights that happened years ago, but most recent fights just being ignored..

It is just that nothing has changed. He still trains with the same guys at the same camp that does not have a bjj coach. He has been fighting forever, I just don't buy the theory that he just magically got better all of the sudden.

BTW Scientists, you now say that Nate is a favorable matchup for Chael, but that is in hindsight. that way you can never be wrong, you can always just explain it away. I'm also not looking at this as a pick em, because it is not. IMO, Chael @ big dog odds is the wise play here. Any bettor can play -300 or -400 guys. But those guys eventually get themselves in trouble...

I disagree with both statements, but really and totally disagree with the second one.

Miller was a tough matchup for him, Chael won that with his hands and sprawl. Paulo Filho was a tough match for him as well. I am honest about these things. I am wrong all the time and freely admit it.

MMA gambling is not about showing how awesome you are at picking underdogs. I make almost all of my money on the favorites. It is about beating the line. If you bet -600 fighters and win 9/10, you are going to make money. There is no inherent superiority to picking dogs, and it doesn't mean you have some super MMA knowledge. Its about winning at a greater percentage than the line indicates. I promise you I can beat the line picking nothing but -400 fights over a year. I will side bet you $1000 that I can make a profit using any line you want up to -600.

Scientist, you also say that you would not be surprised to see Chael beat him. Well, then hell, the argument is over...We agree, Chael is a good bet at big dog odds.

No, we don't. I don't give a 30% chance. I would not be surpised, but I wouldn't take him unto +450 or so.

You honestly believe +450=30% chance of winning? And you use this knowledge to bet? As for your side bet of $1000.00, that is just a silly thing to say over the internet. How about 100K? Give me a break. How about I copy my boxing picks from another site, and show you where I am hitting at close to 75 % and hitting +300 dogs.

Just to let you know, I have been making a living betting boxing for over a decade. Fairly new to MMA, so am still learning. But anyone who says they CAN MAKE a living betting big favorites is nothing more than a liar. And I have met plenty of them, they all eventually go bust. And I have been betting boxing since I was 16, and am now 37. I have seen these guys come and go. I doubt MMA is that much different.

[AC88]

Re: UFC 117

^^
sbjj, are you putting money on Chael? I think he's a great dog bet.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 117

And so it was that another newcomer to IWS picked a fight with a regular. Roll that beautiful bean footage.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

And so it was that another newcomer to IWS picked a fight with a regular. Roll that beautiful bean footage.

Me and sbjj are cool. I like arguing about stuff. I like his passion and he seems to know what he is talking about.. so he is cool in my book.

On a side note, I think he might be the same guy that already got banned. southbaysurf... sbjj (southbay jiu jitsu). http://sbjjc.net/ Sherlock Holmes does it is again.

hey sbjj, the Palazzo sucks balls.

SPX I kind of liked the Ritchie Sherlock Holmes flick.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 117

^^^^^^^lol

Not him.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

I actually know SBS, and have gotten into it with him at another site frequently. He actually found out about the VENETIAN from me. I have been betting MMA at the Venetian from the start. I live in Southern California(Yorba Linda), and SBS lives in Northern California. No way in Hell we are the same dude. I now have a guy that lives in Vegas that bets the fights for me at the V., but I give him 100.00 every trip he makes, it is starting to get expensive. But it saves me the gas, and time of having to drive or fly down there what had started to seem like every week.

SBS is actually not that bad of a guy, but I can see how he did not fit in around here. He does know his shit when it comes to the numbers in this game. But he could piss off the pope.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

You honestly believe +450=30% chance of winning? And you use this knowledge to bet? As for your side bet of $1000.00, that is just a silly thing to say over the internet. How about 100K? Give me a break. How about I copy my boxing picks from another site, and show you where I am hitting at close to 75 % and hitting +300 dogs.

Just to let you know, I have been making a living betting boxing for over a decade. Fairly new to MMA, so am still learning. But anyone who says they CAN MAKE a living betting big favorites is nothing more than a liar. And I have met plenty of them, they all eventually go bust. And I have been betting boxing since I was 16, and am now 37. I have seen these guys come and go. I doubt MMA is that much different.

I'd like to see your boxing bets just to see who you have bet to see if we are betting the samethings.

Also whats the limits on boxing and MMA at the Palazzo?I was there a few weeks ago but forgot to ask

One other thig what do you consider BIG favorites? Some people consider -600 big favorites but I consider anything over -300 a big favorite so I was just wondering

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

^^
sbjj, are you putting money on Chael? I think he's a great dog bet.

Waiting for the line to drop in Vegas. I use online books for smaller bets and boxing matches that will not show up in the Casino books.

But yes, I will be betting Chael, the amount depends on the price I can get. I would love to get him @ +400 or better, but the Vegas lines can sometimes differ(from minimaly to extreme) from the offshore books.

The Venetian also at times will release lines ahead of the offshore books and be way off. I hit King Mo @ -180 against Whitehead, and then he ended up @ -400 or -500 on the online sites. I do not carry enough cas online to really make an ard worthwhile in most of these instances. So I just prayed that Mo would do what he ended up doing to Whithead.